Can I fold this? Please?

[dfscott]

My odds seem too good to turn down, but my hand seemed too awful to play. Can I fold...please???

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2375)
MP (t1910)
Button (t1580)
SB (t750)
Hero (t1385)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t750 (All-in)</font>, Hero ???

[ChoicestHops]

Yes. He's pushing with anything, I just wouldn't want to risk losing my chips this late with a hand this weak.

[microbet]

Ah, I was wrong, misread the blinds - you can fold.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, I was wrong, misread the blinds - you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying this is a $EV versus a Chip EV move?

[snap]

Even though you have good odds, you know he's pushing with any two cards, most of which will be better than your hand. You can gamble here and hope that you have at least two live cards, but I make the fold. You have enough of a stack to sacrifice your BB in order to get all your chips in with a better hand later on.

[microbet]

Yep. If you put him on any two, 23o and 24o are the only hands that are -$EV. If you put him on any tighter range you will need a better hand; actually a fairly decent hand if he is tight at all here.

[gumpzilla]

Yes, you can fold. You're getting 1050:450 odds, which comes out to 7:3. Your odds with 32o against a random hand are just slightly better than this. So it's a pretty marginal call, even from a chip EV perspective, because I also think it's quite likely that SB's range is tighter than any two.

I'm not convinced that this does anything great for your $EV. ICM gives you: .15 folding, .26 for calling and winning, .09 for calling and losing. You need to win
x = .15 - .09 / .26 - .09 = .06 / .17 = 35% of the time, which is less pot equity than 32o has against a random hand. So I think you can pretty safely fold this.

It's worth pointing out that it's not going to take a whole lot of hand to make this a good call, though. 32o is as bad as it gets.

[gasgod]

If you fold, you'll be short stack of 5 players. If you call and win, you'll be second in chips with 4 remaining.

I think it's close, but I know I would fold. I wonder what eastbay's tool gives.

GG

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what eastbay's tool gives.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a fold (but just barely), even if you put him on any two. If you do put him on any two, the +EV calling hands are:

any pair, any suited hand except for 32s, any offsuit hand with an 7 or higher (except for 72o), 64o+, 54o+

Basically, just about anything except my hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ChoicestHops]

Actually anything he has is a better hand than you, even though you can still win the coin flip.

Against a random hand, you equity is 32% to 68%.

[UMTerp]

This is a clear fold, and eastbay's calculator won't tell the whole story here, because you'll still have marginal folding equity with a ~1K stack.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
My odds seem too good to turn down, but my hand seemed too awful to play. Can I fold...please???

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2375)
MP (t1910)
Button (t1580)
SB (t750)
Hero (t1385)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t750 (All-in)</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes you can fold this.

[flyby4553]

Seems like your right, you can't really call knowing that in every possible situation you are behind especially given that you don't NEED to defend you blind here and will still have some FE after this hand.