Casino whoring hourly rate?

[Chiron]

I've never casino whored before, but was contemplating taking a stab at it to take a breather from poker. How many bets can one make an hour at blackjack? How fast do these bonuses clear?

Example: Casino-on-net's $200 bonus with $4000 WR. Assuming say, $2 bets, how long would this take to clear?

[Freakin]

Too long. I play $5 bets at the absolute minimum at CON. Also, CON recently changed their T&C to 50x for Neteller, so you may or may not get in under the old rules. Also, CON was 10xB, not 10xD+B. I clear a CON bonus in 1 hour or less, generally.

Freakin

[Chiron]

ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right?), and you are making $5 bets and clearing it in an hour, that's...400 hands an hour? that seems like a lot? (excuse my ignorance on this topic)

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Example: Casino-on-net's $200 bonus with $4000 WR. Assuming say, $2 bets, how long would this take to clear?

[/ QUOTE ]

At CoN, a noob can get in about 240 hands/hr, which equates to 4.2 hours with a $2 bet size.

For me, this is much too long, but if you are looking to build a roll, it's not a bad idea. Hell, your hourly rate will be ~$46/hr.

-- Homer

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right?), and you are making $5 bets and clearing it in an hour, that's...400 hands an hour? that seems like a lot? (excuse my ignorance on this topic)

[/ QUOTE ]

An expert can get in ~600 hands/hr at a site with fast software. 400 hands/hr sounds about right for CoN, though as I said, for a noob it is closer to 250.

-- Homer

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right?), and you are making $5 bets and clearing it in an hour, that's...400 hands an hour? that seems like a lot? (excuse my ignorance on this topic)

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, I generally bet more than $5. $5 is what I did when I first started whoring. At this point, I would be doing $10-25 on a CON signup.

Freakin

[Chiron]

homer to the rescue! thanks.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right?), and you are making $5 bets and clearing it in an hour, that's...400 hands an hour? that seems like a lot? (excuse my ignorance on this topic)

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, I generally bet more than $5. $5 is what I did when I first started whoring. At this point, I would be doing $10-25 on a CON signup.

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely. What he needs to be aware of, though, is that the probability of losing money goes up as bet size increases, although EV stays the same (well, close enough).

At CoN:

Bet Size | Probability of winning

$1 100.0%
$2 99.6%
$5 95.3%
$10 86.8%

[Freakin]

I never did figure out how to calculate that... care to help a whore out? I assume it's related to SD, BR, WR, and bet size, but I don't know how all of them relate. And would a calculation for VP be the same (not the same numbers, obviously)?

Freakin

[chunk]

Freakin and homer are far more experienced at this stuff than I, however as a Casino noob, my experiences may be helpful.

I've done the easy three so far; CON, starluck and planetluck. they are gravy. When I did them (recently) CON was 10*B and the other 2 were 8*(B+D). Thats around 370 in EV for 5200 wagered. Even a beginner should be able to do 300 bets per hour. so aprox 17 hours at $1 bets for 370 dollars. It would feel like an eternity and would hurt all the more if you lose money but it's still over $20/hour.

I did it at 5-10 bets and cleared them all in about 3 hours total at $495 profit.

I haven't ventured much beyond this but free money is free money.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I never did figure out how to calculate that... care to help a whore out? I assume it's related to SD, BR, WR, and bet size, but I don't know how all of them relate. And would a calculation for VP be the same (not the same numbers, obviously)?

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

1-[r+(1-r)*N(-EV/SD)]

r = risk of ruin
EV = expected value (including bonus)
SD = standard deviation

In plain English:

To figure out how often you'll lose more than the bonus, take the percentage of time that you bust (r) and add the percentage of time you don't bust, but lose your own money (1-r is the percentage of time you don't bust and is multiplied by N(-EV/SD), which is how often you'll lose more than the bonus). Now take this whole thing and subtract it from 1 to figure out how often you'll win money.

I have spreadsheets to do this stuff for me now. They aren't pretty, but they get the job done.

-- Homer

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right)

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct...

But remember, DO NO DEPOSIT TO CON WITH NETELLER!!!

Incase you didn't know, they recently changed their T&C so Neteller deposit bonuses have to be wagered 50x.

[knowlesm]

[ QUOTE ]
I never did figure out how to calculate that... care to help a whore out? I assume it's related to SD, BR, WR, and bet size, but I don't know how all of them relate. And would a calculation for VP be the same (not the same numbers, obviously)?

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. 200 bonus/$5 hands/2000 WR/HA of .46%

EV = 200 - 2000*.0046 = 190.8
s.d. = sqrt(2000/5) * 1.14 * 5 = 114
z-score = 190.8/114 = 1.67368
(that's just the mathematical way of saying how far away 0/busting is)
Look that up in a normal distribution table and get p = .953

95.3% chance of not busting.

Only thing different about VP would be the HA and sd for one hand (1.14 for BJ).

[knowlesm]

[ QUOTE ]

although EV stays the same (well, close enough).


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, and I agree with you that bet size does effect EV at some point. When I get my lattice model right, i'll ask you and the other bw about it. It's been a long time since i've looked at any RoR or Brownian motion stuff.

[moondogg]

A general rule of thumb I use is that I can usually wager 50 bets in between 5 to 10 minutes (assuming concentration and no breaks). Exactly where in between that 5 and 10 depends in on the speed of the site.

Once you've wagered 50 bets at any given site you should be able to tell exactly how long it will take you.