tried and move and I might have got there

[Roswell]

10/20 6 max on Party. Folded to SB who raises. I defend my big blind with K9o.

Flop AAQ rainbow. He bets, I check intending to raise the turn.

Turn 2. He checks. I bet, expecting him to fold. He calls.

River 9. He checks. My action?

[MoDOH]

how loose is he? ais he aggressive? any read would be helpful... If he is the kind of player who autobets flops I would be very suspicious of his flop check. as it is, with no reads I probably bet this river and fold to a raise...

[Grisgra]

Oooh, good one. I probably 3-bet preflop, but it would depend on this guy's raising standards in blind wars, and you've provided no reads!

He's playing this like a slowplayed A (unlikely) or a scared pocket pair or queen (much more likely). You're behind to anything with a queen, KK, JJ, TT, 99, ahead of 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33.

I very much doubt that he calls the river with K-high. Possible, but I think unlikely. So the question is, is this a value-bet? I think the chance that he has a queen, KK, JJ, TT, 99 is close to that of him having one of those six pocket pairs.

So this is one of those marginal spots, IMO, where it really doesn't matter what you do. I'd probably bet it in the heat of the moment, because I like betting, and he *probably* would have bet the turn with a queen or KK. So you're probably a tiny bit ahead.

[krishanleong]

I hate a river bet. I don't think he'll call with a worse hand 55% of the time. I think he has a better hand quite a lot of the time. When he calls the turn bet he is pretty much comitting himself to showdown.

I might consider checking the turn.

Krishan

[Wynton]

I agree you're river bet isn't getting called by a hand you beat. I expect your hand to be best, but see little point to betting the river.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree you're river bet isn't getting called by a hand you beat. I expect your hand to be best, but see little point to betting the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you'll see any pocket pair call here a decent amount of the time. This is why posts without reads on the opponent are annoying.

[Roswell]

Grisgra is right - whether to bet is player dependent.

In any case, when he called the turn, I gave him a scared queen. SO I checked the river. He showed K8o, for nothing-king-high and I won with aces and nines... but I would have won anyway.

I wonder why he called the turn.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Grisgra is right - whether to bet is player dependent.

In any case, when he called the turn, I gave him a scared queen. SO I checked the river. He showed K8o, for nothing-king-high and I won with aces and nines... but I would have won anyway.

I wonder why he called the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of his mighty K-high. Hence the reason that I thought that he'd probably call here with any pocket pair. Still, if it's a river value-bet, it's super-thin.

[imitation]

I like a bet on the river. If I was multitabling with slim reads I would. I think weak pocket pair or a pair of 2s, something really awful that he wants to showdown...he definitely does not have a Q, though a ridiculously played A is not out of the question. You can easily fold to a CR.