Should i lay down AKs here?

[flo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t340)
MP2 (t1070)
CO (t580)
Button (t1650)
Hero (t1290)
BB (t1425)
UTG(t495)
UTG+1 (t1150)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises to t495 (All-In), UTG+1 raises to t1150 (All-In), 4 folds, Hero?

UTG played some crazy hand, i give him a big range of hands. UTG+1 played alot tighter than UTG.

My decision and reasoning in white below:
<font color="white">UTG is very loose, he already made moves with bad hands, so i'd call him anyday with 2.x times his stack. UTG+1 played tighter, he surely has some good hand. But why did he move all-in? I think he maybe did that because he wanted it HU, so nobody comes along. Problem: he could have KK or AA, too...
I folded, and ended 5th in the tournament :/</font>

[Tilt]

Easy fold.

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy? I don't think so. UTG could have anything. UTG+1 has a hand, which 'could' be AA or KK (in which case you lose) or could be any number of other hands, in which case you're essentially even money or better against him. The extra chips in the pot from UTG make this worth thinking about.

My gut tells me I fold this most of the time, but unless I have more sense of the table than I can get from this post, I don't say 'easy'.

[John Paul]

I think with 2 all-in folks I would have folded as well. My guess is that one or both players could have a pair, and if one had a pair and the other Ax that hurts your chances a fair bit. You don't need to win this one and losing will kill you, so I would not take the risk. I would call with a premium pair though. I am no SnG guru, so perhaps wiser folks will tell you otherwise.

John Paul

[Misfire]

&lt;grain of salt&gt;It's early, UTG+1 probably has a hand. I'd let them slug it out and try to take their chips later.&lt;/grain of salt&gt;

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy? I don't think so. UTG could have anything. UTG+1 has a hand, which 'could' be AA or KK (in which case you lose) or could be any number of other hands, in which case you're essentially even money or better against him. The extra chips in the pot from UTG make this worth thinking about.

My gut tells me I fold this most of the time, but unless I have more sense of the table than I can get from this post, I don't say 'easy'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its extremely easy. What are you hoping for? This?

As Ks 481346 35.12 845419 61.68 43989 3.21 0.366
3c 3h 540743 39.45 823024 60.04 6987 0.51 0.396
Ah Qh 304676 22.23 1022089 74.56 43989 3.21 0.237

Or this?

As Ks 527768 38.50 838719 61.19 4267 0.31 0.386
3c 3h 239959 17.51 1126528 82.18 4267 0.31 0.176
Jd Jh 598760 43.68 767727 56.01 4267 0.31 0.438

Or I guess you are PRAYING for this?

As Ks 964427 70.36 329244 24.02 77083 5.62 0.731
Kd Qh 100225 7.31 1249043 91.12 21486 1.57 0.080
Qc Ad 221947 16.19 1071936 78.20 76871 5.61 0.189

Why take a decent stack at this point in the game and throw it away with AK in a three way? Why? Makes no sense at all to me. Even your best case scenarios give you a roughly 30% suckout risk. Your worst case scenarios have you leaving the table 80% of the time +. I don't think this is even close.

[flo]

Thanks for your replies, it feels good that the decision was right!
Here are the results; my dog was lucky not to be in range /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

UTG: 9d, 8d, pair of nines
UTG+1: Ac, Qc, high card Ace
Hero: As, Ks, flush

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at the Party $11.

[Voltron87]

If this is at the 11s, only fold if you hate +EV situations.

[1C5]

Tilt, nice analysis and all but if you look at the hands that went all in before AKs, you will see AKs as a nice favorite. And at the $11 level this is not out of the norm, many times this same situation occurs and you will be losing money by folding AKs here.

[Tilt]

If the players are terrible, then I refuse to give them a good chance to suck me out that easily. If I wait, I'll get them with much worse odds.

With twice as many or half as many chips in my stack I would make this call. Not with what Hero brought to the hand.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
If the players are terrible, then I refuse to give them a good chance to suck me out that easily. If I wait, I'll get them with much worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an SNG, we have what, 50 more hands?

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the players are terrible, then I refuse to give them a good chance to suck me out that easily. If I wait, I'll get them with much worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an SNG, we have what, 50 more hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=194 1378&amp;fpart=&amp;PHPSESSID=

Be the pusher, not the caller.

[Voltron87]

Are you serious?

[Jason Strasser]

You have a premium hand.

Im pretty sure getting in here is +EV against this crowd, so if variance is not an issue (combined with the fact that if you lose oh well open another table), making this call should help your overall returns.

[Tilt]

Are you serious?

Voltron, why are you so willing to get involved with something that is very often going to look like this?

As Ks 481346 35.12 845419 61.68 43989 3.21 0.366
3c 3h 540743 39.45 823024 60.04 6987 0.51 0.396
Ah Qh 304676 22.23 1022089 74.56 43989 3.21 0.237

Especially when UTG+1 has been tight?

Yes, if you win you are pretty sure to get ITM. But at the tens, you are pretty sure to get ITM anyway when you have a decent stack by this level.

Please explain why you think accepting a 60%+ suckout risk is a good idea here.

Now it does matter alot to EV as to which of the two stacks has the dominated hand and which has the PP. But you cant really know which is which.

[KenProspero]

Ok, taking your first analysis, which is the worst case for AKs. When I look at the chips in the pot, and my percentage chance of winning, I find a slight +ev in chips to calling.

However, this analysis doesn't misses the point that you may wind up with the second best hand (to the short stack) in which case I believe you're a profit. The other two analyses are even better from AKs point of view.

If your point is that you may not want to risk your tournament life for a tiny +ev, I can agree with that (which is why I originally said I'd probably fold). However, I think your analysis proves my point that it's by no means an 'easy' fold.

btw, after reading your mathmatical analysis I now believe that it's correct to call -- unless you believe you're MUCH better than the other players in this game, and possibly even then.

[ChoicestHops]

This is a tough scenario. It would really depend on how I feel at the time and what my reads are on the opponents. You said UTG+1 was tight, but he could be using the hammer on the UTG's all-in. In case he does indeed lose, he only loses 500 chips and is still in.

I'd put UTG+1 on a high pocket pair, quite possibly QQ. H could even have an AQ. The UTG may have anything. I would like to say AQ but it's more likely a smaller pocket pair or it could even be a A9o or A4s combination, which means you are in trouble if he has an A.

Im not for sure what I would do. It's not likely that UTG+1 has AA or KK, he's just trying to go heads up with the UTG.

edit: Thinking about it some more, I would call. You're only a slight underdog to TT, JJ, or QQ and it's currently level 4.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, taking your first analysis, which is the worst case for AKs. When I look at the chips in the pot, and my percentage chance of winning, I find a slight +ev in chips to calling.

However, this analysis doesn't misses the point that you may wind up with the second best hand (to the short stack) in which case I believe you're a profit. The other two analyses are even better from AKs point of view.

If your point is that you may not want to risk your tournament life for a tiny +ev, I can agree with that (which is why I originally said I'd probably fold). However, I think your analysis proves my point that it's by no means an 'easy' fold.

btw, after reading your mathmatical analysis I now believe that it's correct to call -- unless you believe you're MUCH better than the other players in this game, and possibly even then.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is far from the worst case scenario for AKs to be up against one small PP + one dominated hand. Try AA and KK as your two opponents holdings.

And my analysis was not mathematical at all.

But...I just ran ICM on the scenario. If you put them each on PP&lt;AA/KK, its a clear fold. You should expect that to be the hand range. I dont think one PP + one dominated hand makes much difference. I imagine that garbage hand + one dominated hand would be an easy call. I think even at the tens I wouldnt put them on this.

[flo]

[ QUOTE ]

edit: Thinking about it some more, I would call. You're only a slight underdog to TT, JJ, or QQ and it's currently level 4.

[/ QUOTE ]
What impact does the level have on my decision? Increasing blinds force me more and more to make a move, and in ten hands i have to make that move with something remarkable weaker than AKs, is that your point?

[treeofwisdom7]

well you have to look at your competition and when the blinds are gonna increase. what chance if you fold do you think you have to hit the money or win the sit n go. if you thought you would finish the way you did then taking the chance with UTG wouldnt have been a bad idea.

[UMTerp]

Strassa's right. And who cares what UTG has? As long as you're ahead of the range UTG+1 would isolate-raise with here, you're gaining chips with the side pot. The main pot would be an added bonus.

I'm calling without too much thought here.

[john_]

You can't know what's going to happen in the future. If you're a weaker player I guess a call wouldn't be too bad here. But if you're decent, you should, on average be able to find better spots than this.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you serious?

Voltron, why are you so willing to get involved with something that is very often going to look like this?

As Ks 481346 35.12 845419 61.68 43989 3.21 0.366
3c 3h 540743 39.45 823024 60.04 6987 0.51 0.396
Ah Qh 304676 22.23 1022089 74.56 43989 3.21 0.237

Especially when UTG+1 has been tight?

Yes, if you win you are pretty sure to get ITM. But at the tens, you are pretty sure to get ITM anyway when you have a decent stack by this level.

Please explain why you think accepting a 60%+ suckout risk is a good idea here.

Now it does matter alot to EV as to which of the two stacks has the dominated hand and which has the PP. But you cant really know which is which.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are forgetting that hero only needs to beat bigstack here for it to be a profitable play. So ignore small stack and run your calculations again.

[prepotency]

UTG+1 is playing tight and he doesn't need this pot. Not only does UTG probably have you beat, AK is not friendly in this multiway pot IMO. It is almost guaranteed that someone has pocket pair holdings and you are sharing some of your outs with the other player (at least your ace). Why take a risk this large when you will likely just split at BEST. Furthermore, the person with the pair is probably going to take all the cash.
I agrew with tilt.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

edit: Thinking about it some more, I would call. You're only a slight underdog to TT, JJ, or QQ and it's currently level 4.

[/ QUOTE ]
What impact does the level have on my decision? Increasing blinds force me more and more to make a move, and in ten hands i have to make that move with something remarkable weaker than AKs, is that your point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya that and also your opponents will push with weaker hands as the blinds increase, etc.