What Do I Beat?

[Jazza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($105.4)
UTG ($84.95)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($39)
MP2 ($60.81)
Hero ($123.3)
CO ($179.55)
Button ($156.1)
SB ($192.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $1. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $4.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $4.

Flop: ($17) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $20</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, SB calls $167.80 (All-In)

It's $73 more for me to call, right away this seemed a pretty easy call, but would some one really go the distance here with just an overpair? after all it really looks like i have AA/KK here. or am i being to weak tight in considering a fold?

[swolfe]

i think he has AA and was trying to trap you. you raised preflop, so he's probably putting you on KK or QQ. there's almost no way he could put you on a 5. i'd call, i think.

[etgryphon]

How did he get his stack? In an earlier post, I saw you didn't play with him much.

I think that if he he is as loose as you say he is I think this is a call. He might be playing A4s. But it smells of AA/KK to me. If he is a real donk then it could be QQ-JJ.

-Gryph

[orange]

I think I'd call as well. I think he has an overpair (maybe trapping with AA or KK), or overplaying a draw.

Intrested to see what follows.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
i think he has AA and was trying to trap you. you raised preflop, so he's probably putting you on KK or QQ. there's almost no way he could put you on a 5. i'd call, i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like rationalization-- putting him on a hand you can beat and then calling. Against certain players, yes, this is legitimate, but against an unknown I think you see the underfull here a lot of the time.

[salloch]

I would grit my teeth and call. Mainly because the way you played this PF. I don't think he can put you on trip fives or an under full. If you had only called PF, then a fold may be more in order. I agree with an earlier poster that he has AA or maybe AK /images/graemlins/club.gif The underfull is a real possiblity, but given the PF play, I think calling is +EV. Even if he has the under, you still have (slim) redraws.

[kurto]

Why does everyone rule out a boat, 3s over 5s? Its the one hand that anyone would a standard raise with and play this fearlessly.

Granted, the guy could have a lot of other possibilities, but it would be the one hand that the villian could safely play this way knowing the hero has a great PP.

If he's totally loose, A5s isn't out of the question. (Though I would expect that more at a $25NL table and less at this one.)

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think he has AA and was trying to trap you. you raised preflop, so he's probably putting you on KK or QQ. there's almost no way he could put you on a 5. i'd call, i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like rationalization-- putting him on a hand you can beat and then calling. Against certain players, yes, this is legitimate, but against an unknown I think you see the underfull here a lot of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very guilty of doing this... But lets see what makes sense.

Hero raises pretty big preflop... 5xBB after limpers.

What is the OP image at this point? Has he been raising PF with SC before and had to show them down. Is the table scared of the OP. Is the OP very aggressive post flop?

The OP is taking an interesting line because his hand is so disguised. The SB if he is loose could be playing anything, but that doesn't necessarily mean he would play anything that would beat us.

What do we lose to: 58+, 53, 33 of these the only thing that makes sense to me would be 33, A5 which are two real possiblilities.

So I can see the SB playing these reasonable hands: A4s, A5, 33, AA - TT.

I think there is enough overlay to make the call.

-Gryph

[swolfe]

i don't think a boat would put in that last raise. if i have 33 and my opponent reraises me (and still has a decent stack), i'd call and check-raise the turn. there's no way a boat should give a probable overpair the chance to get away.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think a boat would put in that last raise. if i have 33 and my opponent reraises me (and still has a decent stack), i'd call and check-raise the turn. there's no way a boat should give a probably overpair the chance to get away.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands do you think would put in that 4th raise?

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think a boat would put in that last raise. if i have 33 and my opponent reraises me (and still has a decent stack), i'd call and check-raise the turn. there's no way a boat should give a probably overpair the chance to get away.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the SB is aggressive and loose (maniac). I don't think you rule that he is thinking about the big PP folding. He is probably thinking that there is no way that he would fold AA/KK in this spot.

I think the 33 is the best "Oh sh!t" holding...

-Gryph

[swolfe]

good point, but i still think there's a very good chance that Villain is putting Hero on an overpair, in which case AA would make that 4th raise.

The other possibility is a 5, but the only reasonable 5's are A5s, 65s, and 45s. Two you beat, and one you don't.

If this guy is loose and plays draws aggressively, it could be a SF draw, but i don't think that's likely given the paired board.

[Jazza]

btw my image is pretty tight, my stats are 13/4

[Jocke_F]

I would call but not like it since you have no real reads on the guy. But lets see, if you say he is loose he might have 45suited or 56suited, he could be trapping with a big pocket, etc, enough to make it a call.

[Ghazban]

I'm not saying this is a trivial fold or anything; I just don't ever like putting in the 4th raise with anything as it seems like the only thing that will call is the nuts.

In practice, I think I call this and hate doing it. The stupidity of people at this level never ceases to amaze me so making big laydowns is rarely correct.

[Jazza]

i called, still not sure if that was correct, and villian had 33

at least i had outs

they didn't come, but they were there

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
they didn't come, but they were there

[/ QUOTE ]

This made laugh heartily /images/graemlins/grin.gif Sorry the hand didn't work out