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Che
05-03-2005, 11:58 PM
bet365 round 4, 7 left

top 5 advance to round 5
6 & 7 get nothing

Blinds 100/200, we’re 14+ hands from the next level at the current pace

Chip leader has 5000+
Another guy has 2500
2 healthy stacks at ~1800
Shorties have 950 and 1200

I have 1060 after posting the SB.

Folded to chip leader on the button. He minraises. He’s doing this 2-3 times per 7 hand orbit, but has never been reraised. He has called pushes from short stacks with A8 and A3.

(Note: BB is 2500 guy)

I have 99. Do I push? Do I stop-n-go?

If you say fold, what do I need to play?

Later,
Che

Nick M
05-04-2005, 12:46 AM
I can make strong cases for all these. One is move in which I would end up doing cause he's probably on a straight steal. The only problem with moving in here is this. If he has any kind of hand he should call. 1660 in the pot and he needs to call 660. 2.5 to 1 on his call. I would call with with a naked ace or even KQ KJ, small pair definitely. Stop N Go might be a good idea too, but I genrally don't like to use it. A lot of players do though and I think it works for them.

Well whatever I move in...

syka16
05-04-2005, 01:00 AM
I'd fold and hope someone busts out. since 5 place, that's pretty likely.

pokerlaw
05-04-2005, 01:02 AM
I would move in here. you are probably a favorite and the timing seems proper.

gumpzilla
05-04-2005, 01:08 AM
You're essentially competing for the last spot with the three shorties. You can't wait for them both to bust out. 2-3 times per orbit is definitely enough to know that this guy is opening with a huge range. Eyeballing it, it looks like he'll be getting 2.5-1 or so to call, so I think you can continue relying on him to call with ace small.

If you push and win, then I think you're probably 90% or so to get a seat. If you fold, I think you're 40% or so to get a seat. Given this, and given that seats are the only prize, you need to win more than 4/9 of the time against his range to make this profitable. That's not very much, especially against a loose raiser. Any sense for what a good range for him will be? I suspect it's tighter than any two.

One thing I'm neglecting in my analysis is the odds of the BB waking up with a big hand behind you. There are two possibilities: 1) BB calls your push, hopes that chip leader responds in kind, they check it down; 2) BB requires QQ+ to get involved here and pushes over the top. 2) is obviously not that big a danger, 1) would depend on my assessment of BB.

To summarize: I think I'm pushing with a lot of hands here. The specifics would depend on a reasonable range, but as a guess, I'd probably be comfortable pushing 44+, A6+ and probably a bunch of suited broadway hands.

EDIT: I've completely neglected the stop-n-go issue, but I think I prefer pushing. 99 is going to perform well enough against his range that I don't mind getting my chips in, and I'd rather get his stack (as I mentioned, I think he'll call getting 2.5:1 given how you've described him) (and by his stack, I actually mean the relevant portion of his stack) than give him a chance to correctly fold or call on the flop.

Matt Walker
05-04-2005, 01:19 AM
I think 99 is too good of a hand to fold in this situation especially if the guy is making this raise often. Therefore my focus would be trying to take down the pot the greatest percetage of the time. I assume that almost any hand will call you push here as it will be getting proper odds. I'd estimate this guys raising range to be AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, 98s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo if you say hes doing it a lot. Against this range of hands you will in about 60 percent of the time all in preflop. If you stop and go its likely he will only call you with a pair, so you will win immediately 66 percent of the time, additionally some of the times you call you will win. I'd guess your overall win perctage for the stop and go play is around 75 percent. That extra 10 percent of times you win by stop and going as opposed to pushing is too good to pass up. Seeing this I would definatly stop and go and look to add the chips that are already in the pot to my stack.

Matt

Che
05-04-2005, 01:46 PM
Thanks to all who replied so far.

To me, the two biggest issues were:

1. The big stack was pot-commited with chips to spare so I had no folding equity. Perhaps stealing with a weaker hand later would be more +EV than going to showdown on this hand.
2. The big stack was to my immediate right so I was not getting many opportunities to steal. I had already folded good stealing opportunites (98s on the button, Kx in the SB) several times because he minraised in front of me.

The other two shorties were to the immediate right of the chip leader so they were very likely to be called when they pushed, but the chip leader would not be *forced* to call with nothing (unless they folded themselves too short, which could easily have happened IMHO).

All in all, I think I like the estimate of 90% chance of seat if I win versus 40% if I fold, so I suppose I have to play since I'm ahead of the big stack's range (and he might even find a fold if he has T3o or something).

Still not sure if push or stop-n-go is best.

In this specific hand, I lose my stack regardless of my push/stop-n-go choice since the button had KQ and the flop came Kxx. He called my PF push, and he obviously would have called my flop push if I had sng'ed him.

Further thoughts appreciated if anyone has any...

Later,
Che

Tilt
05-04-2005, 02:06 PM
Your push was correct IMO. A stop and go gives him three free cards when you are almost certainly ahead. If you are committed anyway (which I think you should be) then get the chips in while you are ahead.

If you stop and go, are you getting any more good (desireable) fold equity here anyway? Getting a fold is good if you can fold a hand which presents serious risk for you. But I think here most of the time if he folds to it, you wanted a call. And if he calls you are dead more than half the time, and in grave danger most of the rest of the time.

the shadow
05-04-2005, 07:28 PM
Take a look at the thread Ilya started on Mid-game, middle position, medium pair (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2244004&page=&view=&s b=5&o=).

There're a few similarities. In both cases, the hero has 99. The hero also has a below-average stack, but not the smallest stack.

There're also a few differences. A big difference is the payout structure. Another is position. Ilya acted before the villian, raising before the villian pushed. In your case, the villian acted before you. Ilya's blinds are a bit lower. He had abt 13xBB, but you have only 5x after posting. (He also had a limper, but then you have the BB still to act.)

In Ilya's case, just to speak for myself, I leaned towards limping pre-flop (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2249416&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) to play for a set or overpair, and, if someone else raised behind me, pushing or calling (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2258792&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1).

In your case, with abt 5xBB, I push and pray. In fact, that's the biggest difference between the threads -- Ilya had to call a push but you get to push 1st. Given your read, I figure to get called by Ax and stand to be ahead.

If villian hadn't min-raised or your respective stacks were closer in size, I might try a stop and go. But given that he's done so and that he's called pushes with Ax, I don't see a stop and go as adding any FE.

If you just called, the last thing you want is having the BB call or, even worse, push. You pushing makes that unlikely.

The Shadow (who's growing fonder of Barbara Feldon (http://www.salon.com/mwt/style/2002/07/01/feldon/story.jpg) the more I see her)