How do you play this JJ hand on the RIVER? (AKA the horror of OOP)

[salloch]

MP3 had been sitting out, and I had no read on him. (Watching him after this hand, I didn't see anything out of line.) Comments on PF, Flop, and Turn welcome, but I am mostly interested in how you play this RIVER. I was lost...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($52.85)
UTG+2 ($8.5)
MP1 ($49.75)
MP2 ($59.15)
MP3 ($50)
CO ($40.8)
Button ($157.57)
Hero ($66)
BB ($15.5)
UTG ($72.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.5. CO posts a blind of $0.75. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $1.50, CO folds.

Flop: ($5.25) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, MP3 calls $5.

Turn: ($15.25) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP3 calls $10.

River: ($35.25) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Great, you backdoor a straight while betting top pair, but now there's a third flush card as well and you are OOP - Your Move?

[EverettKings]

I wouldn't be too concerned about the flush at this point, you bet hard enough that a plain flush draw isn't likely to be in there with you: I suspect a set of 8s or so. I would probably fire another $10 on the river for value, but I don't hate checking.

You bet the flop and turn really hard, and I would have been scared to see him call my big fat turn bet.... until your gutshot filled. If he has any hand you beat, the chances are high of him checking behind here, and I just don't see a flush draw sticking around through that (it is party poker, however, so it's not entirely out of the question). If your river bet gets raised any reasonable amount I'd call.

-Kings

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be too concerned about the flush at this point, you bet hard enough that a plain flush draw isn't likely to be in there with you:

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You clearly play at different tables then I do. I play $25 and $50 NL tables and 'pot odds' and such mean little to the many chasers.

[warlockjd]

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I wouldn't be too concerned about the flush at this point, you bet hard enough that a plain flush draw isn't likely to be in there with you

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This is wrong. Villain is getting 5.85 to 1 in implied odds on the turn call to hit a flush, plus the donkeys wouldn't even care about the odds, and with no read, I'm leaning towards donkey opponent.

HOWEVER, I have been thinking about this hand for 10 minutes, and still can't decide if we are ahead or not.

Smells EXACTLY like a flush draw to me.

I am forcing myself to choose a line now, so I'm folding to a bet over $20 and calling anything less.

Interested in other responses.

[fuzzbox]

check and play poker :-).

[warlockjd]

[ QUOTE ]
check and play poker :-).

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Well, duhh. What about the hard part?

[beginnersluck13]

I am a beginner, but from short experience I would put this guy on an Ace high flush. I play smaller limits, but no amount of money I put in can force out a lot of the flushes especially if they have over cards, and in general I have seen reraises with a set. Just my two cents. I would check here.

[salloch]

This is what I was thinking about my options...

Bet Big - My thinking on the river was that there were so many hands I was ahead of that would call a decent bet AA - 66 that I didn't want to check it and let anyone off cheap. If he somehow hit a small flush, he *might* fold.

Check - See above. I was really concerned about facing a pot-sized bet, and not being able to fold because of my reasoning above. So I was thinking "if you're going to call, may as well bet".

Blocking Bet - I didn't see this as much of an option...but is betting $5 or $10 and folding for a raise a smart play?

I lean toward checking and calling anything under $20 (a la Warlock) now that I think more about it...but I'd really like to hear more thoughts on it.

[Ghazban]

I like a 1/2 pot blocking bet here. If he raises, you can fold. A tiny blocking bet of $5 or $10 will do nothing but encourage him to raise and represent the flush whether he has it or not. Alternatively, if he is the type of player who habitually underbets, you can check and call (the advantage here is that he'd probably bet less than you would be betting as a blocking bet).

[warlockjd]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a 1/2 pot blocking bet here. If he raises, you can fold. A tiny blocking bet of $5 or $10 will do nothing but encourage him to raise and represent the flush whether he has it or not. Alternatively, if he is the type of player who habitually underbets, you can check and call (the advantage here is that he'd probably bet less than you would be betting as a blocking bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

I rarely make blocking bets, but this is the play!

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
check and play poker :-).

[/ QUOTE ]
This post makes me so glad that I recently learned about the "Ignore this user" option.

I am right there with everybody who says that this smells like a flush draw, and I agree that the choices are either check and pick an amount you are prepared to call, or a blocking bet. Here are some of the criteria for the choice:

Do I have records on the player? If he bluffs too much, then I check and call up to $30.

Also, if this player has seen me betting my draws, then I am more likely to go for a blocking bet. I am hoping that, even if he has the flush, it won't be the nut flush and he will start to fear that this is exactly what I have. I'm not hoping for a fold, just hoping to avoid a raise. I think $15 is the right amount for this, and I am folding to any raise less than minimum.

If I just don't know, I check and call up to $20.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a 1/2 pot blocking bet here. If he raises, you can fold. A tiny blocking bet of $5 or $10 will do nothing but encourage him to raise and represent the flush whether he has it or not. Alternatively, if he is the type of player who habitually underbets, you can check and call (the advantage here is that he'd probably bet less than you would be betting as a blocking bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

The villain here only has $33 left. The pot is $35. If you bet half pot, he will be raising you so little that you have to call. Someone said check and call up to 30, but if he only has 33 you're basically calling his all in.


The point is that the stacks are shallow enough, the pot is big enough, and your hand is strong enough that you aren't getting away from this. That said, you might as well make a value bet to prevent second best hands like a set or AA from checking behind. MAYBE you can check and fold to an all in, but if I check and he bets $20 that scares me more than if I check and he pushes for $33. It just seems like you're asking to be bluffed at by checking.

-Kings

[wdeadwyler]

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[ QUOTE ]
It just seems like you're asking to be bluffed at by checking.

-Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that the whole point. If we are ahead here, we make our value bet, and our opponent either folds or calls. However, if we check, he MAY check behind us, in which case we miss a bet (unlikely for a party donk to check behind on ANY river), but he may also take a stab at stealing the pot. If we are behind and we value bet, we get raised all in and HAVE to pay him off. So which is the bigger concern, missing another $10 bet, or losing another $33, and how often do you think each of these scenarios happens? (NB: Ths is a question I am asking to you guys.

[salloch]

Thanks for all the replies. It definately helped my thinking on the play of this hand.

FWIW, I pushed on the river and got called by AJ spades. My hand was not good.

[JaBlue]

I'm betting out 25$ and folding to a raise.

EDIT: didn't see villain had 33$ left on the river.

new line : I'm betting out 15$ and folding to a raise.