derby odds

[nopepper]

anyone know where i can find morning line odds for the derby?

[mackthefork]

Which one?

Mack

[swede0530]

The official morning line gets set after the post position draw which is being held late Wednesday afternoon.

[Woody09]

www.DRF.com (http://www.DRF.com) on wendsday night around 7pm for the oaks and thursday at somepoint for the derby I think.
or you can buy the DRF on thursday and friday

[dicelumpY2005]

I think you can get the odds live on ESPN tomorrow...they usually do a Sportscenter based around the Derby draw. Once the post positions are drawn, Mike Watchmaker-I believe, will determine the odds for the race. The top 2 are a given: Bellamy Road will most likely be anywhere from 2-1 morning line to 3-1. Afleet Alex, depending on a good post position draw, will most likely be your 2nd choice at 5-1. Bandini should be your 6 or 8-1 3rd choice. I usually don't endorse a favorite, but if Bellamy Road is 3-1 on Derby Day, he'll get my money. He doesn't even need to run close to that Wood Memorial to beat most of this field... Oh well, I'll post my official bets once the draw takes place tomorrow...

[Holybull]

This is a pretty good snapshot of what things will look like. Don't be fooled by the morning line, either. The joker that sets the ML is sometimes way off.

Bellamy Road 3-1
Afleet Alex 7-2
Bandini 9-2
High Fly 9-1
High Limit 14-1
Noble Causeway 15-1
Wilco 17-1
Sun King 18-1
Greeley's Galaxy 20-1
Flower Alley 30-1
Greater Good 30-1
Coin Silver 40-1
Buzzard's Bay 45-1
Andromada's Hero 50-1
Don't Get Mad 50-1
Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, Sort
It Out >50-1
Giacomo, Closing Argument >80-1

[Derby]

Thats pretty close to what I have but wouldn't Don't get mad & Greeleys Galaxy be coupled as well as Bandini & Spanish Chestnut?

[Holybull]

I'm not sure, but I don't think there's any coupling. For some reason I think they changed the coupling rules a few years ago for the Derby. Maybe that was just for common trainers and not owners, however.

Coupled entries for a race as big as the Derby don't make sense. I would hope there is none.

[Derby]

I hope there is no coupling but each pair I mentioned are owned by the same owners (that is 2 different owners). Its no big deal I already have field covered and sitting on 20% ROI on the derby if I stand pat but I think I can get an extra 5% through some wagering models I have set up i.e wagering a little bit more on the horses I have a the fewest return dollars.
Well Good Luck!!!

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Noble Causeway 15-1


[/ QUOTE ]

For information, this one is by Gaints Causeway and I think this is the first batch of 3 year olds. Footstepsinthesand won our 2000 Guineas, and Maids Causeway came 2nd in the 1000 Guineas, not sure how they will go on dirt though, but both of these travelled well on top of the ground, and they both looked likely to stay on over the extra 1 or 2 furlongs. It seems like the family are all free sweaters so if you do back this one close to the off, don't let the sweating put you off.

Regards Mack

[swede0530]

I'd put $2 at > 80-1 on Closing Argument.

But I don't think he will be close to that in either the morning line or on Saturday.

[swede0530]

No coupling in the Kentucky Derby as it was done away with a couple of years ago.

There will be a max of 20 entries/20 betting interests.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put $2 at > 80-1 on Closing Argument.

But I don't think he will be close to that in either the morning line or on Saturday.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats available on Betfair at approx 94/1 at the moment but its an antepost market, so if it doesn't go to post, you won't get a refund.

Mack

[swede0530]

He travels well on the dirt.

Definite wiseguy horse as there has been that undercurrent of talk regarding his chances and his state of readiness around and on the backside.

He's looking good, working great and attracting attention.

[swede0530]

That's a pretty good overlay (imo).

Unless he gets hurt, he'll be in the gate.