bluffing with a missed draw

[Little Fishy]

if you have a draw with many outs that misses on the end, how fequently should you bluff with it in comparison to a draw that misses after having relatively fewer outs.

[WhiteWolf]

Interesting - I've never thought of it this way. I'll try a bluff sometimes if a scare card hits on the river and I can represent hitting a good hand. You can make a case that if I'm drawing to lots of outs (ie straight flush with overcards), the chance of a scare card hitting that does not help my hand is reduced, in which case I'm more likely to bluff a hand that has fewer outs rather than more outs. This, however, would be a secondary effect - the number of outs I had does not directly enter my decision to bluff or not.

What do others think?

- The Wolf

[iNsChris]

Proably when i have a A or K (Maybe q kicker) in my hand and a scare card hits.. (Not the one im holding obviously :P).

But im a newbie, Good thread.

[poker-penguin]

Yeah, if you had many outs, you're more likely to be value betting the river, than bluffing.

[pzhon]

If your opponent might put you on a busted draw, it is more dangerous to bluff. If you had a lot of outs, it may be that some of the outs cam from an obvious draw. That is an argument for bluffing with fewer outs.

On the other hand a great time to bluff is when your opponent hates his hand, but you are still behind, e.g., you both missed your draws. That is an argument for bluffing when you had more outs, since it is more likely that your opponent had a draw, too.

I voted for bluffing with fewer outs. I count pairing outs (high cards), though these are not worth as much as outs to the nuts. If you have overcards, you may have more showdown value which you give up by bluffing.

[Raydain]

I chose the hand that had more outs just because with more outs there is a better chance it must have been a draw-heavy board which the opponent could have missed their drawing hand as well.

It depends a lot on who's been doing the betting.

[PairTheBoard]

I thought this was a straightforward game theory concept in which your bluffing frequency is proportional to the frequency with which you make your hand.

PairTheBoard

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this was a straightforward game theory concept in which your bluffing frequency is proportional to the frequency with which you make your hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
That may be true in games with a hidden river card like 7 card stud. In Hold'em or Omaha, it is more obvious which draws have been completed. When a blank hits, you should bluff with a frequency more closely related to the number of times you would follow the same betting sequence with a strong made hand (or another draw that hit) rather than the number of outs you had.

[The_Bends]

Against a good player I would say that bluffing a draw with few outs is the best plan. Pre flop your oppenent raises a standard ammount and you call with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif .The baord comes

4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Lets say your opponent has been betting all the way down with AK and you've called twice,when he value bets the river you come over the top with your busted draw with zero showdown value. If he respects you as a player he's going to have to put you on some sort of Full house. Either your paired ace became a FH or your flopped set didm either ay he's in big trouble. The draw is so unobvious precisely because it has so few out. Your oppenent will be making a crying call if he makes it. Your bluff has a great chance of working.

Now looking at the flip side, a draw with a whole deck full of outs. You hold 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif , again there is a PF raise and call to go heads up into the flop. THis time the board comes

8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Again lets say for arguements sake you'd called your oppenents flop and turn bets. Obviously we'd prefer to raise the flop but thats not the senario here. Again the opponent bets his AK on the end and you come over the top with a busted draw with no showdown value. This time however a good player can see a hundred hands that would play this way and try and bluff on the end. 56, 9T, Ax /images/graemlins/heart.gif . He'll probably call reasoning he has the correct odds that you're bluffing.

[Girchuck]

If your opponent doesn't call or raise you with AK in a situation that you've described, you should bluff him very often. Good luck finding a live one who will fold the AK even once in a 100.

[The_Bends]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent doesn't call or raise you with AK in a situation that you've described, you should bluff him very often. Good luck finding a live one who will fold the AK even once in a 100. [/quote

Hmm, I think theres confusion, I forget to say I was refering to NL. No, no one would fold in limit but in NL thery certinlty would.