Article on chances your overpair is beat on the flop

[fnord_too]

Link (http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/archives/samuel40.htm)

I'd post the text but there are tables and I would have link in a bunch of pictures, and I'm only on my first cup of coffee.

Synopsis: You have a pocket pair, say JJ, the flop comes unders and your opponent pushes. When do you call and when do you fold?

I know this has come up here a few times, here's a good analysis of the situation.

Oh, one comment, the author does not consider the possibility of pure bluffing (only semi-bluffing). The way the numbers work out though, that is not really a real concern since the numbers are pretty clear.

[schwza]

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here's a good analysis of the situation

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i'm kinda lukewarm on it... the assumption that villain moves in with any 8+ out draw or top pair 100% of the time and never with anything else (and is 100% to call pre-flop with any of those hands) is pretty limiting. according to the author's methodology, your JJ is good 0% on a board of TT2r.

for illustrative purposes though, it's not too bad.

[PrayingMantis]

Although he makes some good points (most of them are rather obvious for most thinking players, IMO), he has some very problematic assumptions in his analysis.

For instance, in the paired boards (TT2, r or two-suits), villain always moves in on you if he hits trips. I think you can't get too far in this game if that's your premise. His conclusion that your overpair should therefore be folded (on the rainbow paired board, that is), is pretty absurd without a specific read.

[fnord_too]

I aggree that situational details are extremely important and completely ignored. Stack size is probably the most generic thing that is ignored here. If pushing is a huge overbet, that really skews things.

(I think he said JJ was good almost 19% of the time on TT2r board.)

I think if I am villain, and stacks are more than 2.5 X pot at the flop, my "push" is a check raise push, and I certainly don't have a fixed range of pushing hands. (Again, stack size is so important here. I am having a hard time coming up with a scenario against a generic opponent who raised pre flop where I push with JT on a T82 two tone board if I have a lot of chips left. With a few chips I do, though I also may check call, with a deep stack I may check raise and release if that does not take down the pot.)

At any rate, yes, it is not a be all end all by any stretch, but I think usually in tourneys calling is correct with an overpair, and I am amazed when people advocate folding with an overpair on the pot getting decent odds to call a push (decent being ~1.8:1 and up).

[fnord_too]

I should have caveated this. This is not an article for advanced players, but a decent enough one for people who have a difficult time playing marginal hands against aggression. I have seen several debates on this forum about what to do in this sort of situation. Usually the two sides are "You have to call because you are ahead too often to fold" and "You should not risk your tournament life on a one pair hand [or some other weak tight reasoning]".

[schwza]

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(I think he said JJ was good almost 19% of the time on TT2r board.)

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yeah, you're right. i was skimming and didn't realize he did that example and threw in AK with no explanation.

it also would have been better if included % equity against the ranges, instead of just counting JJ vs overs + flush draw and JJ vs top pair as both "good." (calling against overs+flush draw could theoretically be wrong if the pot was tiny compared to stacks.)

[PrayingMantis]

Agreed, people should value their overpairs more. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

(Edit: this could be a very bad advice for deep stack NL, tourney or ring, though).

[schwza]

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You should not risk your tournament life on

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if i never see this phrase on the boards again, i'll be happy.

[meow_meow]

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it also would have been better if included % equity against the ranges, instead of just counting JJ vs overs + flush draw and JJ vs top pair as both "good." (calling against overs+flush draw could theoretically be wrong if the pot was tiny compared to stacks.)

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Ding!
Look at the first example - you are ahead on the flop 64% of the time against that range of hands. Great, that must be an autocall!

Unfortunately, pokerstove says you have only 48.7% equity against that same range. Oops.

[PrayingMantis]

Yes, his whole way of putting those match ups into binary categories (good: yes/no), and then adding the yes's and the no's together, is really very far from being the best way to analyse these situations.