AKs in reponse to the limp-reraise

[DrPublo]

PP 100 NL. UTG has reasonable numbers, maybe a little loose preflop. He has $160 and I have him covered. My image (at least I think it is) is that I raise a little light in LP but otherwise mostly tight/aggressive.

I'm sitting in the CO with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, one more limper, and I raise to $5 (standard). Button and blinds fold, UTG raises to $15. Limpers fold. I call.

Flop ~$35. T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG checks, your action? What range of hands do you put UTG on? How many of those hands check fold vs check raise the flop?

More thoughts and further action later. All comments welcome.

The Doc

[Allinlife]

to be honest, I don't find this hand interesting at all.

You should bet the pot if he calls you are probably facing AA/KK and you should check behind on blank turn, bet out if you hit your draw

if he check-raises you, you simply go allin with your monster draw and hope for a fold.

[Wayfare]

I think your stack is big enough such that you can take a free card. If he checkraises you big with a set you are going to be going in as a big dog. If he has a set and you make on the turn, he is going in as a big dog.

[DrPublo]

I don't think my draw has nearly as many outs as you suspect. I don't want to get 150BBs in drawing to only 12 outs instead of possibly 15 or 18.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your stack is big enough such that you can take a free card. If he checkraises you big with a set you are going to be going in as a big dog. If he has a set and you make on the turn, he is going in as a big dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly. Definitely don't want to get c/r'ed here. How high do you estimate my fold equity on a flop bet? Less than 5%?

The Doc

[Wayfare]

If he has AA he ain't folding. However that's a relatively scary board for AA with a cold caller of a limp reraise and very deep stacks. Would he do the same move with something like 66?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he do the same move with something like 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no reason to think he would be limp reraising with less than JJ here, based on his numbers (like 25/8).

The limp-reraise and then check is a pretty scary combination from my perspective, IMO.

The Doc

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would he do the same move with something like 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no reason to think he would be limp reraising with less than JJ here, based on his numbers (like 25/8).

The limp-reraise and then check is a pretty scary combination from my perspective, IMO.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Very much agreed. I think a very nice all-in over the top would be great if you make either five card hand on the turn.

[DrPublo]

Unfortunately, I checked and the turn bricked. He bet $30 and I folded. I wanted to call but we weren't quite deep enough.

The Doc

[Allinlife]

I think you are underestimating the folding equity you have vs AA~QQ if you bet 2/3ish pot for 25, and he pops you 70ish and you push over the top villan will have hard decision to make. So I think you will take the pot uncontested enough times to make this a nice +EV play

JJ, and rarely TT could have spiked their set but at this level, I think they are more liekly to lead the flop with their set on drawy board, hoping to get raised by AA~QQ or protect vs draws, and you still have something like 40% equity on this pot, which makes it pretty much a coinflip given the dead money in middle already.

[DrPublo]

You're not at all put on guard by the limp reraise and then check?

The Doc

[DoomSlice]

Nice hand, I think you saved yourself $30 /images/graemlins/smile.gif ... or 23ish for you EV-crazy folks.

[PoBoy321]

I don't see any reason not to check behind on this flop. You've got a monster draw and are very likely to get check/raised here.

Take the free card and don't think twice.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not at all put on guard by the limp reraise and then check?

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it is just as unusual for him to check JJ/TT to you for him to check AA~QQ in this spot

[EverettKings]

This is a GREAT spot to take a card off, because if you make your hand you'll get great action. If a diamond falls his thoughts will probably be "uh oh, gotta push out the diamond draw" and not "oh no, he made his flush." The limp/reraise check is confusing, but certainly not a hand I see going away. Betting any draw, even a strong one, banks on taking down the pot without having to hit some of the time, and despite what one poster said, I don't see any line getting him out. Especially if he flopped the nuts.


-Kings