Going against the numbers of eastbay's calc

[J-Lo]

$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.

blinds 150/300
UTG 3000
button/me 2800
SB 500
BB 1500

UTG min raises, been doing it the entire time, i push w/ AQ, he calls w/ K7, do i want him calling?


blinds 200-400 $50+5
UTG 2500
button 450
me 1000
BB 6000

I pikc up TT and push, he calls w/ Q7o.

Are any of these plays wrong?

edit: all stack sized are before posting

[BDarch]

I like the second and the third example but in the first I would definately call. You said he had been raising a lot so you are probably ahead of him and the BB could outfold you into the money if he wanted to, unless those stack sizes are before posting. If those are before posting then I may consider folding.

[FatalError]

1. Folding and playing for 2nd here is alright if you both have exactly 600 left after paying your blinds, the chance he'll call if you fold is worth it, plus you'll hit your blinds next both all in and can take your "coin flip" there

2. Good play, he makes a bad call and you did'nt want this call, you want free money with no showdown whenever you're less than a 65% favorite imho

3. I do this too

[microbet]

i'm playing so i can't really think about it now, but

eastbay's program doesn't handle 3 ways, so you account for when BB calls in the first case

in eastbay's program you have to select the ranges of hands then it gives $EV, you can't really say it gives any particular recommendation without stating the hand ranges.


edit: no 3 ways yet - it is a feature that is expected to come

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y179/Junaid0/eastbay.bmp

edit: argh!! can't get a place to host this picture.

http://photos.yahoo.com/junaid0

not much better, but if u save it to your HDD, then open it, u can see what i did--- i think.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y179/Junaid0/eastbay.bmp

edit: argh!! can't get a place to host this picture.

http://photos.yahoo.com/junaid0

not much better, but if u save it to your HDD, then open it, u can see what i did--- i think.

[/ QUOTE ]
The part that eastbays program can't handle is what is the chances that the BB calls making it a 3 way.


The logic behind folding is that the BB will have to survive at least one all in and maybe you can squeak into the money.

I think calling is the right play. The odds are the button doesn't have AA, KK,QQ, or AK. He would be pushing with a lot of hands that you dominate. If you win, you will have a stack where you have a chance to play for 1st. If you fold, you are not assured of 3rd. If the BB wins one his hands, you will have to survive an all in.

[Scuba Chuck]

Hand 1: I like the fold. Poker, a thinking mans' game. Then you'll be pissed when he doubles up with his 27o, and you coulda played this hand. At least, that's how I feel when this happens. I still like the fold. Very smart to consider stacksizes/blinds...

[microbet]

There aren't nearly enough chips posted in the first hand. Or is it a 6 seater or something?

[gumpzilla]

These numbers look rounded, so one concern is: if you and BB both bust on this hand, who wins 3rd place? I suspect in the actual situation this would not be a real problem, but in that case one would need to know whether or not BB had you covered before posting, as that would strongly affect BB's decision. If BB covered you, I think he's substantially more likely to call you since you have to win the main and he has to lose the side in order for him to bust.

Folding is definitely worth considering, but I'm not convinced. BB will call with any two if you fold; it sounds like button has been raising a lot, so he should be put on a fairly loose range. Let's say he's 60% against a random hand. So basically 40% of the time, in this case, the short stack gets to hang around, and you're left with 1 BB. The short stack should now sit there and let you blind out in the next three hands. In this situation, I think you're going to be busting out fourth at least half of the time, maybe more because you can't do anything to discourage both of the bigger stacks getting in with you.

So by folding, I think you're still probably heading for 4th place 25% of the time. This isn't that much better than the 40% or so (I'm being pessimistic, I think 35% wouldn't be unreasonable) that you bust out calling right here (EDIT: Hmm. This does assume BB folds, and as I pointed out in my first paragraph, that's not a good assumption if he really has you covered, and may not be a good assumption anyway. Him coming in is basically entirely bad for you, I would think, if he covers you. If you cover him, then I think there's no problem.), and you markedly increase your chances of 1st or 2nd by calling and winning, so there's a fair amount of upside to calling as well. I think a call is probably indicated. It's an interesting hand though.

[fluorescenthippo]

1) why isnt this a clear call? hes been raising all day and you have a great hand. if you had AK would you fold?

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
1) why isnt this a clear call? hes been raising all day and you have a great hand. if you had AK would you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The argument is that the BB will have to survive at least 1 all in so you have a chance to squeak into the money.If you have a few more chips (lets say 1K) I think this is an easy fold. AK has a few less hands (AK and QQ) to worry about but I think I would play them the same.

Lets look at the possible ways this plays out
a) you both fold
other small stack has 200 chips you have 400. He goes all in the next hand. If he wins (probably slightly less than 50% chance) you are going to have to survive your blinds. Either way you are both fighting for 3rd.

b) you fold and he calls
If he wins your in big trouble (400 chips to 1400). He will probably win about 30-40% of the time. Again if he loses you are going to have a very hard time getting better than 3rd.

c) you call and he folds
You are probably either a 3:1 favorite or a coinflip. Throw it all together and less say your ~60% favorite to win. If you win you will have 1600 chips which will be stack big enought to have a shot at 1st

d) you both call. This one is hard to evaluate BB could have almost anything and the raiser is about the same. You are probably ~40% to win this but if you lose, half the time you are splitting 3rd place money

In the end I push this because I hate seeing the BB survive and ending up having to put all your chips in with 73o.

[J-Lo]

Yes, as someone said, the stack sizes i posted were rounded. I posted that hand because it was a much closer decision, than the hand that actually played out. I think my situtation is a clearer fold-- i think? Here the the real hand... which i folded. I guess if i call i give myself a real shot at first, but with pocket so low, i feel waiting to eek into the money is the smarter play-- because i give him too much equity if i bust out now.

Seat 1: pocketIUcard (590)
Seat 3: Xena7777 (3110)
Seat 5: honest27off (3180)
Seat 9: addicted777 (1120)
addicted777 posts small blind (200)
pocketIUcard posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to addicted777 [ Ac, Qd ]
Xena7777 folds.
honest27off raises (800) to 800
addicted777....?

[Mammux]

I would never ever fold in that situation. Might call and then push any flop.

-Magnus

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, as someone said, the stack sizes i posted were rounded. I posted that hand because it was a much closer decision, than the hand that actually played out. I think my situtation is a clearer fold-- i think? Here the the real hand... which i folded. I guess if i call i give myself a real shot at first, but with pocket so low, i feel waiting to eek into the money is the smarter play-- because i give him too much equity if i bust out now.

Seat 1: pocketIUcard (590)
Seat 3: Xena7777 (3110)
Seat 5: honest27off (3180)
Seat 9: addicted777 (1120)
addicted777 posts small blind (200)
pocketIUcard posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to addicted777 [ Ac, Qd ]
Xena7777 folds.
honest27off raises (800) to 800
addicted777....?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well thats a pretty big difference form the original post. I think this is a pretty clear fold with the BB basically having to call and you having almost 2.5BBs left (and whatever tiny FE that goes with that) if you let it go.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?


[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like it, yes. You need to specify what the raiser is raising with. This is the key to the decision.

eastbay

[david050173]

I think this is an much easier fold. If the small stack busts out you can push and if you double up you are right back in it. On the other hand if he wins you are the short stack with a little folding equity.

I guess this sort of comes down to a read. If the button is pushing any two, I think I have to call rather than risk the BB doubling up. If I think the button is a favorite over a random hand I might let him gamble.

An offshoot: Your in the BB in this situation and the SB pushes. What hand would you need to call? I am thinking AA-TT and AK but I wondering if that is two loose. Against two hands TT and JJ might be easy folds.