EV implications when building your bankroll

[Georgia Poker]

I'd like to start an a thread about peoples thoughts on EV in any given situation vs. building a bankroll in microlimit poker. My thoughts are this:

1. You should essentially toss the EV equation out the window if you're building a bankroll at microlimits, especially if you're on a budget and can't keep dipping into you savings to play poker. My logic here is that in a microlimit game, most players will chase a hand and look you up on the river regardless of how you play the hand (ie, bet based on EV if you hit your hand). In other words, if you miss your draw, it's unlikely a bet on the river will buy the pot so you've just taken a big hit based on EV for that hand but missed.

2. You can't risk a significant percentage of your total bankroll on a big draw based on EV. IMO, you should mitigate this risk by building your bankroll first to a pre-determined value (ie, XXX buy in's in a NL game or XXX BB's in a limit game).

I'm curious to hear how other players have weighted their EV play based on how healthy their bankroll was at that time, particuarly at the early building block stages.

[WriterBoy]

You couldn't be more wrong about point number 1. Many players will ride a hand like AK to the river and dump it to a single bet if they do not pair up. This happens a lot. Making the best EV play everytime is the way to go.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to start an a thread about peoples thoughts on EV in any given situation vs. building a bankroll in microlimit poker. My thoughts are this:

1. You should essentially toss the EV equation out the window if you're building a bankroll at microlimits, especially if you're on a budget and can't keep dipping into you savings to play poker. My logic here is that in a microlimit game, most players will chase a hand and look you up on the river regardless of how you play the hand (ie, bet based on EV if you hit your hand). In other words, if you miss your draw, it's unlikely a bet on the river will buy the pot so you've just taken a big hit based on EV for that hand but missed.

2. You can't risk a significant percentage of your total bankroll on a big draw based on EV. IMO, you should mitigate this risk by building your bankroll first to a pre-determined value (ie, XXX buy in's in a NL game or XXX BB's in a limit game).

I'm curious to hear how other players have weighted their EV play based on how healthy their bankroll was at that time, particuarly at the early building block stages.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're wrong on both counts. Also, the smaller your bankroll is, the EASIER it is to replace with funds from non poker sources. Poker is a game of small edges, once you start giving them up, or feeling you should, then lower your limits. If you can't afford to push small edges playing 2c/4c, you have no business using that money to play poker.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. You should push all your edges at every possible time (except when not doing so will give you a larger edge later). If you're uncomfortable doing this, then you need to move down limits. There is no middle ground here.

[splashpot]

If you're worried about your bankroll, there are two possibilities. You are not good at poker. No bankroll is large enough for a losing player. Or you are playing at limits too high for you bankroll. Drop down.

[Georgia Poker]

You're all missing the point:

1. It's a hypothetical, I don't play microlimits but wanted to pose this question out of curiousity.

2. If you have a 50.00 bankroll and play a .10/.25 NL game, how can you possibly justify chasing a positive EV hand if if after betting 1/5 of your bankroll, you miss your draw and have NO realistic hope of buying the pot because a player with even second pair will look you up? Note that in my example, the other player HITS his hand (even if it's a weak hand with weak kicker). In that case, the other player is very likely to call a bet on the river, thus you take a big hit to your bankroll.

[WriterBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
You're all missing the point:

1. It's a hypothetical, I don't play microlimits but wanted to pose this question out of curiousity.

2. If you have a 50.00 bankroll and play a .10/.25 NL game, how can you possibly justify chasing a positive EV hand if if after betting 1/5 of your bankroll, you miss your draw and have NO realistic hope of buying the pot because a player with even second pair will look you up? Note that in my example, the other player HITS his hand (even if it's a weak hand with weak kicker). In that case, the other player is very likely to call a bet on the river, thus you take a big hit to your bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]


Your point wasn't missed. You cannot sit at a micro-limit table worried that someone will suck out on you. You sit at the table with the _understanding_ that it _will_ happen at least once per session.

That said, you _still_ always make the positive EV play, because it will give you the money. If you cannot adapt to the situations and variance that happens in micro, you are not a poker player.

(note: I'm not saying the OP is not a poker player, the 'you' is a general term.)

[WhiteWolf]

G. Poker -

I have to agree with everyone else here. If you're passing up +EV situations because it will take too big a chunk out of your bankroll, the correct solution is to move down in limits, not keep passing up the +EV situations. With the microlimits at some sites, a bankroll of 10-20 dollars should be more than enough for a winning player.

I also do not understand your objection to playing drawing hands when you have the odds - you say opponents will 'look you up on the end' if you miss your draw, but still bet trying to steal the pot. Why bet on the end in these situations? You will make money when you hit drawing hands (and can even collect extra money by betting + getting calls when you do hit), not when you try bluffs against calling stations. Yes, playing "drawing" hands is risky - you may not hit your card. But, playing "made" hands is also risky - someone can always draw out on you. Poker is a game of risk - you need to play when you have the best of it, but do so at limits where the variance of luck will not ruin your bankroll.

My 2 cents anyways,

The Wolf

[wireMan]

You've got to push when you have the edge, being a made hand or a drawing hand. I started with $30, played 5c/10c for many thousands of hands until I got to $150, then moved up to 25c/50c where I am now. Yes, people will play anything at these limits - that's why you've got to make the +EV plays. They will pay you off. Building your bankroll (and I don't consider myself to have a 'bankroll' YET) going through these levels is a great learning experience. You can watch first hand as bad players make bad plays (myself included) and see the results.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

You should essentially toss the EV equation out the window if you're building a bankroll at microlimits,

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to factor in some risk aversion, which may tell you to buy in short, or to step down in limits. If you have at least 5 buy-ins, the risk aversion should only be significant in pots larger than one buy-in. It's often worth it to get involved anyway.

You may want to look up the Kelly Criterion. It suggests that you maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll rather than your expected bankroll. For very small wagers, the two coincide. When a wager is large in relation to your bankroll, it might be worth it, and it might not.

If you only have 5 buy-ins and someone pushes preflop, it is still an easy call with AA. In fact, you hope the person has a full buy-in. By the Kelly Criterion, you would happy put up to 3.2 out of 5 buy-ins at stake with AA.

[ QUOTE ]

My logic here is that in a microlimit game, most players will chase a hand and look you up on the river regardless of how you play the hand (ie, bet based on EV if you hit your hand).

[/ QUOTE ]
If you are trying to bluff the unbluffable, you are being outplayed. You need to fix your game before you think about building a bankroll. Against calling stations, value bet. Don't bluff. Don't semi-bluff. Wait for a hand, then get paid off.

[Aytumious]

1) I wouldn't characterize bluffing a non-bluffable player on the river after a broken draw to be a +EV move. Bluffing is only +EV if the donk on the other end will actually fold sometimes.

2) A player with a tight bankroll should tighten up their drawing standards a bit if they aren't able to replinish the roll very easily. That being said, if you have great implied odds in a multiway pot and are drawing to the nuts, folding your draw is a good way to not build a bankroll.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have a 50.00 bankroll and play a .10/.25 NL game, how can you possibly justify chasing a positive EV hand if if after betting 1/5 of your bankroll, you miss your draw and have NO realistic hope of buying the pot because a player with even second pair will look you up

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you suggest you do instead? If you're not going to risk your money when the odds are in your favor, when do you risk it? There is no such thing as a zero risk bet. Unless of course you have the nuts on the river.

The truth is, there is no good solution to your problem. Being on a short bankroll without the option to move down in limits sucks. There is no sure way to win in this situation. But the reality is that you are gonna have to make a bet sooner or later. You may as well do it when you have positive expectation.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Why are all these questions being asked? There is no reason for ALL of them if you play limits where you can't lose your roll on a few bad swings. If you're playing at that level, all the advice in the world won't save you from your self destructive drive.

Fold Preflop.