When is the nuts not the nuts?

[Ribbo]

When you're playing Omaha/8 of course!
http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=58433
Any 4 cards can win!

[Cleveland Guy]

is there a point to this post?

[Ribbo]

Yes, shame there wasn't to your reply though.

[Wintermute]

Nice freeroll... but this happens about 10 times a day to me, so I also seem to be missing the greater purpose to the post.

[Ribbo]

It's a lesson in being observant and how not to play.
When I lead out the turn, and you are on the button with the current nut high but no draws you need to consider several situations, but each of them will lead to the same thing, you flat calling.
If I have a low draw and a flush draw I can be getting close to even money anyway. If I don't have the nuts, you don't want me folding. What you want is for me to bet the river into you again. If I do have the nuts, then there is no point at all you raising. So in the few situations where you are ahead raising with no draws wont achieve too much. In most situations however if you raise, you will get called. You then have to fold to any scare card river and a pot bet. The guy might have a set and a low draw, and the low flush card hits the river, he will take a shot at you with a pot bet and you will fold. The problem with saying you have x equity is that assumes when low hits you will always call if your high is good.
If UTG is bluffing though, you always want him to keep bluffing, so raising the turn costs money more often than not here, especially since if the guy doesn't fill up his set, he may believe it's good anyway since you didn't raise and pop the river once more.

[IronDragon1]

[ QUOTE ]
When you're playing Omaha/8 of course!
http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=58433
Any 4 cards can win!

[/ QUOTE ]

Get all my chips in when I'm certainly freerolling? What a revelation!

With insight like that into the game no wonder you're the acclaimed expert you are

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a lesson in being observant and how not to play.
When I lead out the turn, and you are on the button with the current nut high but no draws you need to consider several situations, but each of them will lead to the same thing, you flat calling.
If I have a low draw and a flush draw I can be getting close to even money anyway. If I don't have the nuts, you don't want me folding. What you want is for me to bet the river into you again. If I do have the nuts, then there is no point at all you raising. So in the few situations where you are ahead raising with no draws wont achieve too much. In most situations however if you raise, you will get called. You then have to fold to any scare card river and a pot bet. The guy might have a set and a low draw, and the low flush card hits the river, he will take a shot at you with a pot bet and you will fold. The problem with saying you have x equity is that assumes when low hits you will always call if your high is good.
If UTG is bluffing though, you always want him to keep bluffing, so raising the turn costs money more often than not here, especially since if the guy doesn't fill up his set, he may believe it's good anyway since you didn't raise and pop the river once more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put yourself in the other player's shoes and consider the situation where his opponent has top set and no low or flush draw? Would you not raise them back on the turn even though you are probably a 3:1 favorite?

Personally I be praying such a person reraised me so I could put one or both of us all-in.

[Ribbo]

That wasn't the insight, try again.

[Ribbo]

If that was the situation, then the hand would not have played itself out this way on the turn. When a player bets, he gives information about his hand. When UTG bets the pot in a very small pot that says one of two things. Either he is a nut case, or he actually has a very strong hand. A set with a straight up on the board is not a strong hand 4 handed in an unraised pot. There is very little value in betting the hand, and a lot more value in checking the hand and calling any bets from the button. Betting will stop anyone with a worse hand from putting money into the pot, whereas checking can certainly get a bluffer to share the love. But as stated before, if i'm on the button with the straight and I believe my opponent not only has a set, but is willing to shove all his chips in with it, then I can just as easily call the turn, as he will still be just as eager on the river to do the same. I want the guy to believe his set is good, a raise is usually enough on the turn to tell them otherwise. By just calling the turn I can look like the one on the draw and usually induce a nice pot bet from the other guy on the river

[beernutz]

Your experiences and perceptions are much different that I have seen in the Party PLO and PLO/8 games I've played.

To each his or her own I guess.

[ QUOTE ]
If that was the situation, then the hand would not have played itself out this way on the turn. When a player bets, he gives information about his hand. When UTG bets the pot in a very small pot that says one of two things. Either he is a nut case, or he actually has a very strong hand. A set with a straight up on the board is not a strong hand 4 handed in an unraised pot. There is very little value in betting the hand, and a lot more value in checking the hand and calling any bets from the button. Betting will stop anyone with a worse hand from putting money into the pot, whereas checking can certainly get a bluffer to share the love. But as stated before, if i'm on the button with the straight and I believe my opponent not only has a set, but is willing to shove all his chips in with it, then I can just as easily call the turn, as he will still be just as eager on the river to do the same. I want the guy to believe his set is good, a raise is usually enough on the turn to tell them otherwise. By just calling the turn I can look like the one on the draw and usually induce a nice pot bet from the other guy on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

[Acesover8s]

Wow you had a straight and a flush draw!

This is ME swooning for YOU!

[Ribbo]

*yawn* The fact that you are focusing on what I had and not what the other guy has, shows you're inability to learn. Learning at poker involves focusing on the bad hands not the good hands.

[Wintermute]

I got to thinking about the low part of this hand and began wondering what would've happened if the guy had a better low draw and a low non-diamond came and Ribbo got quartered (besides his post never being made, that is)...

Well, I ran the hand on twodimes. As the cards actually fell, Ribbo had big advantage when all the money went in:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qc Ad 3d Th
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 4c Kd Jd 9 9 0 31 15 0 0 0.681
Js 9s 2s Kh 0 0 9 31 0 0 0 0.319


BUT, now let's give the opponent a non-bonehead low-draw to go with the str:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qc Ad 3d Th
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 4c Kd Jd 5 9 0 31 3 12 0 0.506
Js 4s 2s Kh 0 0 9 31 15 0 0 0.494

So we got a coinflip. This just goes to point out that the freeroll may not be as strong as you think in every instance. (This is not to say I'd play it any differently on the turn than Ribbo--certainly get as much money in the pot as possible.)

[Cleveland Guy]

and you do such a good job of teaching.

I read a couple hands on your blog - where you have random hands - but you flop the nuts, and get bet into. We all have done that, I can create my own brag threads if I want to.

Earlier tonight playing PLO high only, I had AKT9 - DS in the CO. I raise pot, get called, flop is exactly as I plan - 8QJ - rainbow, giving me 2 backdoor flush draws.

A guy opens for half pot - I raise, he calls. Turn in a 9 - giving me a flush draw, and I hit my freeroll. He bets, I raise him all in, he calls.

River is an off suit 4, and I take down against his QJxx

See how easy it is when it all works out?

[Nick709]

If the point of this post is to show the importance of freerolls, fine. If Omaha players don't know this they are doomed.

[Carl_William]

Without reading all of the replies -- I suggest the title topic should be more appropriate as such:

"when is the nuts not profitable?"

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
I got to thinking about the low part of this hand and began wondering what would've happened if the guy had a better low draw and a low non-diamond came and Ribbo got quartered (besides his post never being made, that is)...

Well, I ran the hand on twodimes. As the cards actually fell, Ribbo had big advantage when all the money went in:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qc Ad 3d Th
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 4c Kd Jd 9 9 0 31 15 0 0 0.681
Js 9s 2s Kh 0 0 9 31 0 0 0 0.319


BUT, now let's give the opponent a non-bonehead low-draw to go with the str:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qc Ad 3d Th
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 4c Kd Jd 5 9 0 31 3 12 0 0.506
Js 4s 2s Kh 0 0 9 31 15 0 0 0.494

So we got a coinflip. This just goes to point out that the freeroll may not be as strong as you think in every instance. (This is not to say I'd play it any differently on the turn than Ribbo--certainly get as much money in the pot as possible.)

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the points I make on my website, is in Omaha, if you can shove every time you are at worst flipping a coin, you will make money. With the hand I held, it is extremely difficult for me to be a dog heads up as you proved. But it is very easy for my opponent to be a dog. Even if I hold a set, low draw and flush draw to his straight, im probably still flipping a coin on the river. I am always happy with the high variance of shoving coin flips, because occasionally my opponent folds instead of calling me and that's where I make my money. I should point out I only do this because I have the bankroll to do this.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
and you do such a good job of teaching.

I read a couple hands on your blog - where you have random hands - but you flop the nuts, and get bet into. We all have done that, I can create my own brag threads if I want to.

Earlier tonight playing PLO high only, I had AKT9 - DS in the CO. I raise pot, get called, flop is exactly as I plan - 8QJ - rainbow, giving me 2 backdoor flush draws.

A guy opens for half pot - I raise, he calls. Turn in a 9 - giving me a flush draw, and I hit my freeroll. He bets, I raise him all in, he calls.

River is an off suit 4, and I take down against his QJxx

See how easy it is when it all works out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you seem to think this is about me bragging confirms my suspicions. You see the thing is, if I want to post a hand of poker, IT IS going to be a hand I was involved in , because that's the majority of poker hands I see in a week! Ones I was playing in. Because I am a good player and I do win, then the mistakes at the table are going to be from other players. This was an interesting hand, showing that a lot of Omaha players only think about their own hand and not what other people have. My opponent never considered at any point on the turn he might have had the worst hand.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
If the point of this post is to show the importance of freerolls, fine. If Omaha players don't know this they are doomed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say it's more the importance of not shoving when you don't have a freeroll, than having a freeroll. Anyone can play the nuts, it's pretty simple to get a freeroll and raise the pot. However it's the time when other players may have a freeroll over you that you need to recognise and slow down.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and you do such a good job of teaching.

I read a couple hands on your blog - where you have random hands - but you flop the nuts, and get bet into. We all have done that, I can create my own brag threads if I want to.

Earlier tonight playing PLO high only, I had AKT9 - DS in the CO. I raise pot, get called, flop is exactly as I plan - 8QJ - rainbow, giving me 2 backdoor flush draws.

A guy opens for half pot - I raise, he calls. Turn in a 9 - giving me a flush draw, and I hit my freeroll. He bets, I raise him all in, he calls.

River is an off suit 4, and I take down against his QJxx

See how easy it is when it all works out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you seem to think this is about me bragging confirms my suspicions. You see the thing is, if I want to post a hand of poker, IT IS going to be a hand I was involved in , because that's the majority of poker hands I see in a week! Ones I was playing in. Because I am a good player and I do win, then the mistakes at the table are going to be from other players. This was an interesting hand, showing that a lot of Omaha players only think about their own hand and not what other people have. My opponent never considered at any point on the turn he might have had the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you mention your website, I'd been meaning to note that I don't agree with hand 6 on your website. your QQJJ was a good holding only because the cards you needed were not in others hands. Change just one opponents hand to something like 9TTJ and you are a signficant dog.

[Ribbo]

When you have 6 people at an Omaha table shoving all in preflop, usually they all have low cards, A2 A3 234 etc. This was again the case, and a high hand like QQJJ will perform just as well. Any hand you end up winning often there will be no low, so just as you shove QQJJ 6 handed in Omaha, to a lesser extent you can shove it in O8 too, but only with lot of other players in on the hand. I don't believe you would have any significant value, but given the pot odds I don't believe you would be losing it either. All comes down to whether you want to gamble or not. I personally think it adds value anyway since having a nice stack will be worth more on the subsequent hands too.