What's my folding equity on this semi-bluff?

[TheDrone]

20K guaranteed tournament with 10-minute levels. About 250 players left, top 60 get paid. Midway through the 200/400 level and I'm in the BB with 3200 after posting. I have no reads on the villain since he recently moved to my table.

Preflop: Villain (6300) limps UTG and the CO limps too. SB folds and I check with my J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Pot is 1400.

Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Flop: I check, villain bets out 400, CO folds, Hero...


The biggest factor here is my folding equity. Obviously I would like my chances more if I had the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or if I had the villain covered. Is it too optimistic to think that villain will fold 25% of the time? For those who wait for a better spot, would you push if you had the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or you had Villain covered?

[tjh]

How aggressive have the blind stealers been ?

If I feel I can grab my blinds right back after letting them go then I would wait for position and make a move or two there. If the blind stealin has not been easy then I would make a move here.

I think the Villain will fold %30 or more. If he had the flush he would/should be waiting for a check raise opportunity. I would consider his bet to be a probing bet to see what is out there. With no read on his playing style though it might not be a bad idea to wait for one or two hands.

An all-in call and loss would hurt him pretty badly.

Just my $.02 . Curious to see what others have to say.

If I had the Villain covered I would push. If I had the A the K or the Q that would make no difference. Your all-in bet will represent an already made flush, and force him into the "mistake" of chasing his 4-flush with bad odds.

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tjh

[DireWolf]

I disagree. I fold this. Pushing here looks more like a semibluff than a made hand. Unfortunatly, you aren't drawing to a very good hand, and on top of that you have to overbet the pot when you push. I just don't think this is a good spot.