AA on the button

[SGS]

I have black AA on the button in a .50/1.00 game on absolute. I have ~200 and the opponent in this hand has me covered. There is one limper, the villian min raises to 2 in the CO I re-raise to 10. He had been raising small with pretty good holdings. So he most likely has a big ace or pair of some sort. Only the villian calls.

FLOP K,4,4 (2 daimonds)

He bets 15 and I call. At this point I put him on a big K and am planning to call to the river where I will make a raise.

Turn 7d

He bets 30. My plans change now as I must charge a flush draw to get there. I make it 85 to go. He calls.

River Jd

He pushes I fold. I thought I coulda made a bigger raise on the turn that he woulda called. However I also think that if a brick non-daimond came I will get all his stack anyways, so why risk losing my whole stack when my opponent is drawing live when I can get it when there are no more cards to come. Thoughts on this? Thanks in advance.

SGS

[theweatherman]

This looks like he has AK with the Ad. On the flop he hits TPTK and correctly bets it, obviously unaware you have aces. One the turn he picks up the nut flush draw and is not going anywhere, leading to his made flush on the river.

In my opinion this is an obvious river fold. For no reason am I comiting my whole stack to this board with only AA. I hate folding AA but it is necesary here.

The only thing I can think of to prevent this is to raise the flop. This assumes he only has AK and not a better hand. Even then I think that he is not going anywhere on the flop and deffinitly not folding hte turn. Looks like the villian just had the right hand with the right board to take a good chunk of your chips. I probably would of lost a ton more so congrats on saving a few at least.

[SGS]

Yea I figured his hand to be AK with the Ad as well. My question is not regarding the river fold but rather the turn raise. I am pretty sure I am ahead here, but don't want a daimond to draw cheaply. I figured if I pushed he would call me with AdKx, however I also figured he would call the turn raise and river push if a non daimond river came with this same hand. So by not pushing I save myself 100 when a daimond gets there and win the same when it doesn't. The positive to pushing the turn is he is getting much worse odds to call to hit his flush and is therefore making a bigger mathmatical error. The positive to making a sizable raise is he is still making an error (though not as big), but I save 100 when he gets there. This is what I was curious as to what you all thought about.

SGS