ROI anonymous

[dfscott]

Hello, my name is David, and I'm a numbers junkie.

There, I said it. I've fallen deeply into the ROI trap. As much as I try to deny it, I measure my performance by my ROI. High ROI = I'm a good player. Low ROI = I'm a bad player. I've been holding off the negative feelings for some time with the sample size defense, but now as I roll past 500 SnGs, those defenses are buckling.

I think the worst part of it is that I'm actually a winning player. (Warning: ROI discussion follows.) I'm a rock-solid 10% ROI player from the 10s to the 33s. I can slice my stats just about any way I want to (first half, second half, 11s only, 33s only), and it always comes up 38% ITM/10% ROI.

Lame. Weak. Terrible.

But, wait: I'm making money! I am not losing, yet I am not satisfied. Why is this?

Because of our need to compete. We measure our self-worth by comparing ourselves to others. Somebody posts: "hey, how do these stats look?" accompanied by some 20-ish ROIs and an irrelevant finish breakdown. These posts get repeated over and over again and become our subconscious baseline for success. "High ROI" is any ROI above these random posts, while "Low ROI" is any ROI below them. And when we fail to measure up, we are a "loser," even if we aren't losing! (Sidebar: if this is hitting home for anyone who hasn't read Irieguy's (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1822484&page=1&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) and Gigabet's (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1825403 &fpart=&PHPSESSID=) posts, I highly recommend them, since much of this is just a personal anecdote of what they're talking about -- I just haven't gotten to where I need to get yet, so maybe you'll have better luck than me after reading them.)

It's interesting to me that there's never a point where it's "enough." The losers want to win, the winners want to win more. I'm hoping I can reach that Zen state (ala Irieguy's and Gigabet's posts) so that I can be happy in the "now." My first mistake was denying that I wasn't already there. It's the old "the first step to solving a problem is admitting you have it," hence my opening statement. I kept telling myself, "wow, that was a rough night. I know it doesn't really mean anything, but let's load these suckers in and take a look at what this did to my ROI.... OH MY GOD! I SUCK!" I'm hoping that admitting this puts me on the road to "ROI recovery."

I apologize if this post is a little self-serving but I'm hoping it has some relevance outside my situation and screw it, I'm need something to shake me out of this funk. Therefore, I vow to start playing Yugo-style and not look at PT or my spreadsheet for at least two weeks. It'll be tough, since PT will be happily loading away in the background, but I can monitor my BR via the cashier window, and that should be sufficient to save me from any BR disasters.

Finally, I need a sponsor to help me through my recovery, so my imaginary sponsor/role model is going to be Ty Webb from Caddyshack:

Judge Smails: Ty, what did you shoot today?
Ty Webb: Oh, Judge, I don't keep score.
Judge Smails: Then how do you measure yourself with other golfers?
Ty Webb: By height.

In case anyone's interested, I'm 5'10".

[prepotency]

On a more important note, what keeps happening to your avatars? Is that you and is that the same guy that was in your first avatar? If so, why do you feel the need to always cover up your face? Touching your face is bad for your skin and I'm sorry but the guy in your avatar doesn't have the best hands in the world either

[ilya]

"I feel your pain." No really, I do.

[kyro]

Hi David, my name is Kirk, and I have an ROI problem.

3 months ago my BR was $70 and I was about ready to quit. If someone had told me then,

"In 3 months, you will be running at 20% ROI over 500 tournaments."

I would have done backflips.

I'm not that happy either. I want it to be 25%

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
On a more important note, what keeps happening to your avatars? Is that you and is that the same guy that was in your first avatar? If so, why do you feel the need to always cover up your face? Touching your face is bad for your skin and I'm sorry but the guy in your avatar doesn't have the best hands in the world either

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I expected this post to spark discussion, but not this discussion...

I changed my avatar to Barbara Feldon as a joke. When I went to put it back, I discovered I'd lost the link and couldn't find it. This was the closest pic I could find.

It's an artist's rendering of me getting called after pushing 52s on the bubble.

[Freudian]

I believe that if you are neurotic about these things you play worse poker, since you constantly get these weird "I have to be ITM in this one" thoughts.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a more important note, what keeps happening to your avatars? Is that you and is that the same guy that was in your first avatar? If so, why do you feel the need to always cover up your face? Touching your face is bad for your skin and I'm sorry but the guy in your avatar doesn't have the best hands in the world either

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I expected this post to spark discussion, but not this discussion...

I changed my avatar to Barbara Feldon as a joke. When I went to put it back, I discovered I'd lost the link and couldn't find it. This was the closest pic I could find.

It's an artist's rendering of me getting called after pushing 52s on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hilarious. So it's not actually you though?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that if you are neurotic about these things you play worse poker, since you constantly get these weird "I have to be ITM in this one" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly right -- I got that way last night. I was playing 33s and got into this "I've got to do well in this set!" I got so worked up that I had to move down to the 22s just to relax.

[1C5]

Good post. I used to be the same way and after a bad day sometimes feel the same way.

I find I am much happier just looking at my bankroll in my poker sites. I am not too sure even what my ROI is right now but my bankroll keeps going up so really that is all that matters. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

It's not about ROI. It's about making money and getting better. You probably could be a 30% player in the 11s right now, but you choose to move up limits instead. Same with the 22s.

When a good player moves up to the 33s, would you expect them to immediately post a 10% or 30% ROI on average in their first 500?

Clearly, it's 10%. You can't expect to immediately achieve the same ROI as good players that have been playing that limit for a while.

If you see people with great ROIs and a small sample, they were probably lucky.

If you see people with good ROIs and a large sample, they are probably better than you because they have a ton more experience than you at that limit. There's no shame in that.

You have apparently choosen to push yourself and move up limits as soon as possible. That's a good plan. However, you can't expect to keep jumping limits AND to maintain a huge ROI.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe that if you are neurotic about these things you play worse poker, since you constantly get these weird "I have to be ITM in this one" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly right -- I got that way last night. I was playing 33s and got into this "I've got to do well in this set!" I got so worked up that I had to move down to the 22s just to relax.

[/ QUOTE ]

My advice from personal experience: Don't get into that mode (and I bet you do this) where you update your SNG tracker after every set. THIS IS A BAD IDEA. Just use SNG Tracker and update your tourneys NO MORE than once every other week. Honestly, there is no point to doing anything else and it helps you play better. Trust me. Makes the game more fun too, you can live in the moment and enjoy your tournaments more. Seems like less of a grind.

[The Student]

Thanks for reminding both David and me about this. I'm a mid-30s kind of guy in the 11s, so I tried to move my way up a couple weeks ago, incorporating some 22s into my sets. But after my first 40 22s I'm dropping precipitously past -20% ROI. I wasn't expecting to cruise into the 22s at 30% roi, but then again, I wasn't expecting to lose my BR so quickly either. So I'm back at the 11s again, and I'm going to try to work my way back up and take another shot.

I like that other posters idea about just looking at your roi once a week, because I know that I'm examining my AM spreadsheet stats pages every time I update, and that's no good.

Also, I've been reading your posts for some months now, and I know that you're improving just by the questions you are asking. If you keep learning, eventually the BR and ROI will rise with knowledge.

BTW - if it makes you feel any better, I'm only 5'9"


ts-

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Judge Smails: Ty, what did you shoot today?
Ty Webb: Oh, Judge, I don't keep score.
Judge Smails: Then how do you measure yourself with other golfers?
Ty Webb: By height.


[/ QUOTE ]

I find this hilarious because the other day I was thinking about what my ROI was (I don't PT import or keep track right now) and then I realized I didn't care and then this quote came to mind.

[The Yugoslavian]

Dude, you should get rid of that fancy new-fangled spreadsheet you spent so much time working on, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

And I'm serious! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Oh, and not to put a damper on anything but you haven't hit 'IT' yet. Oh, and your numbers are still meaningless.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to give you a little advice. There's a force in the universe that makes things happen. And all you have to do is get in touch with it, stop thinking, let things happen ...


[/ QUOTE ]

Right now dfscott, you're not being the ball, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for reminding both David and me about this. I'm a mid-30s kind of guy in the 11s, so I tried to move my way up a couple weeks ago, incorporating some 22s into my sets. But after my first 40 22s I'm dropping precipitously past -20% ROI. I wasn't expecting to cruise into the 22s at 30% roi, but then again, I wasn't expecting to lose my BR so quickly either. So I'm back at the 11s again, and I'm going to try to work my way back up and take another shot.

I like that other posters idea about just looking at your roi once a week, because I know that I'm examining my AM spreadsheet stats pages every time I update, and that's no good.

Also, I've been reading your posts for some months now, and I know that you're improving just by the questions you are asking. If you keep learning, eventually the BR and ROI will rise with knowledge.

BTW - if it makes you feel any better, I'm only 5'9"


ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

Moving up is about luck. If you catch upwind while doing it you feel comfortable. If you don't you get scared.

The 22$ are marginally harder than the 11$s, which I am sure you realize intellectually. But of course comfort is a big part of doing well so I am sure you will have a nice winning streak the next (or the one after that) time you try the 22$s and then you will stay there.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I like that other posters idea about just looking at your roi once a week,

[/ QUOTE ]

Try once a month or once a year. Once a week is way too often if you're a recovering ROI/ITM junkie.

Yugoslav

[Tilt]

Sponger, is that you in your avatar?

[Newt_Buggs]

I wish this thread had come up before i first moved up to the 30s and was down after my 1st 200 games. I felt like I sucked even though I knew my sample size was insignificant. Right now I update SnG tracker every session which I will definitly have to stop doing.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a more important note, what keeps happening to your avatars? Is that you and is that the same guy that was in your first avatar? If so, why do you feel the need to always cover up your face? Touching your face is bad for your skin and I'm sorry but the guy in your avatar doesn't have the best hands in the world either

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I expected this post to spark discussion, but not this discussion...

I changed my avatar to Barbara Feldon as a joke. When I went to put it back, I discovered I'd lost the link and couldn't find it. This was the closest pic I could find.

It's an artist's rendering of me getting called after pushing 52s on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hilarious. So it's not actually you though?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, and it's a good thing since I'm a hand model and would've taken that comment personally.

[SuitedSixes]

I've been thinking about this quite a bit lately, and maybe this is over simplifying but . . .
if you look at the confidence area of your handy-dandy* spreadsheet you will see a range of numbers that you can expect over X SNGs. I think that if you are willing to accept the numbers that are more towards the high end of that scale with they happen, then you must also readily accept the numbers at the low end of that scale when that occurs as well. They are both possible, and they are both going to happen.

As far as comparing numbers that other people post goes, it's the old ePenis factor. People are only going to post the numbers they are REALLY proud of (usually shrouded as a question to throw you off the braggard's trail), so you are comparing yourself to someone who is only giving you a glimpse into their best performances. For example:

Last week I was running at 56% ITM with a 454% ROI. I know my sample size is probably small, but could I boost my ROI if I sacrificed some ITM by going for 1st more?"

I was telling someone last night that it is too bad that we don't have a way to gauge our decision making process as SNG players. At the end of it all, we do need to remind ourselves that we are gambling.


*Name that cartoon

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like that other posters idea about just looking at your roi once a week,

[/ QUOTE ]

Try once a month or once a year. Once a week is way too often if you're a recovering ROI/ITM junkie.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

PUHHH-LEEEZE! How much happier are you now that you aren't tracking your results on a daily basis?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Judge Smails: Ty, what did you shoot today?
Ty Webb: Oh, Judge, I don't keep score.
Judge Smails: Then how do you measure yourself with other golfers?
Ty Webb: By height.


[/ QUOTE ]

I find this hilarious because the other day I was thinking about what my ROI was (I don't PT import or keep track right now) and then I realized I didn't care and then this quote came to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

G1 Spnger. This actually brings to mind the great words of Kenny Loggins: "Ham on Rye, dont nobody worry about me"

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like that other posters idea about just looking at your roi once a week,

[/ QUOTE ]

Try once a month or once a year. Once a week is way too often if you're a recovering ROI/ITM junkie.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

PUHHH-LEEEZE! How much happier are you now that you aren't tracking your results on a daily basis?

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly think it's the main reason I haven't *for real* quit poker in the last month. The biggest problem is that I can still remember what my stats were the last time I looked...if I could find one of those MIB memory-eraser dealios that'd be sweet.

In other news, I only longingly glanced at the noose in my room over the weekend. I didn't even try to put my neck in it once!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Progress, baby, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[Slim Pickens]

I think the recreational players on this board get caught up in trying to be like the pros. That's not a bad thing by itself; it's what fuels the poker boom off of which we all feed. I'm also a <20% ROI lifetime player over a variety of levels and formats. Occasionally, the nagging feeling hits me that I'm just not as good as everyone else. We get fixated on numbers (40% ITM, 25% ROI or whatever) given by pros as a guideline to other aspiring pros. I don't know what your life plans are, but I have other ways I plan to make my living over the next 40 years (even the next 1 year). If your goal is to play poker for a living, then maybe you suck, but if your goal is to have a serious hobby that

a) makes money rather than uses it and
b) makes you feel superior to all those wannabe losers who watch Gus Hansen calling all-in with T8s, imitate, then redeposit. They wear their black Oakleys and upside-down Party Poker visors and they're players.

then you've done it. Congratulations. Let the superior feeling sink in.

Even if you do die homeless and penniless and twenty pounds overweight and no one ever loves you, you're still a solid poker player.

Slim

[Scuba Chuck]

I think you need a good confidence booster. Try putting a hot chick for your avatar. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that if you are neurotic about these things you play worse poker, since you constantly get these weird "I have to be ITM in this one" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's how I think about every single tournament of every single set. Or at least, I try to.

[J-Lo]

I propose a contest. Who can go w/o looking at their ROI/ITM the longest. (ala the seinfeld where they challenge one another on who can go w/o masterbating the longest) I use PT+AM spreachseet w/ the Scott import feature. So, i will coninue to update it, but not look at the stats page. I suggest everyone do the same. Now i want to make this official, so the winner get $10 from all participants. Any takers? Should i make a new thread? If there is no interest, i'l do this challenge by myself and last 3 days.

[Voltron87]

the answer is voltron.

[hummusx]

Yeah you'd have to stipulate that people could only enter if they look at their stats at LEAST once a day already.

[Voltron87]

I am ridiculously skeptical of winrates. The field of competition is always changing, if you play 1000 SNGs you are probably scattering them around time of day and playing against a wide range of players, playing well sometimes and mediocre at others. And the last 9,000 opponents (or so) will be different than your next 9,000. And you will improve, and the group of people you're playing will change. Even if someone has 1000 SNGs under their belt, considered a good size, I do not believe this has much predictive value in the real world. I think it can be a good indicator of how you were playing, or whether you are a winning player, but I don't buy into predicting future results that much.

[microbet]

Dude, you suck. I'm like 6'2", Raptor is like 6'2", Yugo is like 6'2", Rojoh is probably 6'4", Rojosox 6'2" or so, Hard to recall but Vindikation is over 6', I think Irie is about 6'.

You are better than Skipperbob.

I'm not sure you are cut out for poker.

[Slim Pickens]

I'm 5'10", but when everyone locks their keys in the house, I'm the one who has to go in through the cat door.

[kevstreet]

Great thread David. Not to mention the pertinent responses. I have definitely fallen in to this trap! It's scary that I'm almost as disappointed about my statistics as I am about the money I lost during a bad run. Anyway, the astute 2+2ers always have a way of kicking my ass back on track!

By the way, your avatars are hysterical! Funny thing is every once in a while after a bad beat I cover my face w/ my hands in despair and your avatars come to mind!

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
I propose a contest. Who can go w/o looking at their ROI/ITM the longest.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm out! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
Raptor is like 6'2"

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I pictured him being like 5'2. holla

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]

Moving up is about luck. If you catch upwind while doing it you feel comfortable. If you don't you get scared.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt. I know that variance has not been on my side in my recent ventures into the 22s, but you're absolutely right - the #s (ROI and BR) have definitely not helped my confidence.

[ QUOTE ]
The 22$ are marginally harder than the 11$s, which I am sure you realize intellectually. But of course comfort is a big part of doing well so I am sure you will have a nice winning streak the next (or the one after that) time you try the 22$s and then you will stay there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, truth is that I have noticed that there are 1 or 2 fewer lemmings per table (the players who seem to need to throw themselves off the table as they only re-raise all-in against a better, made hand), but since my sample size is so ridiculously small, I'm not counting this as a real trend yet.

thanks for the support,

ts-

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
*Name that cartoon

[/ QUOTE ]

Too easy (you must have kids).

Kinda goes with my post about having the BLUES.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mr_J]

That's gotta be one of the best ones I've seen...

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need a good confidence booster. Try putting a hot chick for your avatar. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, that's a good idea. I'll have to go hunting and get back to you...

[Mr_J]

[ QUOTE ]
the other day I was thinking about what my ROI was and then I realized I didn't care

[/ QUOTE ]

There are only 2 things I care about in poker these days. Getting a good hourly rate, and putting in a decent amount of hours. I don't care how good I am compared to other winners as long as I profit b!tch.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care how good I am compared to other winners as long as I profit b!tch.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone's losing too much sleep as long as they profit, but when I compare myself to other players, I just look at it as something to shoot for. Or even possibly as a glimpse into my potential...if these guys can do it, maybe I can too, and that's encouraging. I like knowing people's stats, good and bad, and I think overall this is a safe place to talk about them. It's nice that so far I haven't seen this forum turn into a pissing contest.

[Mr_J]

"I just look at it as something to shoot for."

Well, I meant what matters at the end of the day. ROI is a useful tool when looking to improve etc (ie you know if you are only hitting 10% at the $11s or 5% at the $109s you can improve) or roughly calculating how much you can expect to make. All I'm saying is placing to much importance on ROI is a bit silly.

"It's nice that so far I haven't seen this forum turn into a pissing contest."

And I don't think it will for a while judging by how many posters jump down the throats of braggers or the "are my stats good?".

[CobraGoat]

can i use SNG tracker for my fulltilt stats?

[sng-sam]

what can one learn from ROI? How do you interpret a:

10% ROI
15% ROI
20% ROI etc.

what changes do you make to your game based on roi changes?

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
"It's nice that so far I haven't seen this forum turn into a pissing contest."

And I don't think it will for a while judging by how many posters jump down the throats of braggers or the "are my stats good?".

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been tempted to post on of those "are my stats good" but I figured nobody would give me a serious answer until I hit at least 1k SNGs (talk to me in a year, haha). I would like to know what a player should expect/aspire to at the $1s and $5s.

[nuclear500]

You can't just look at ROI alone. Its meaningless.

Looking at ROI comparatively to your ITM and sample size is what determines how you decide to move up.

At least, thats my goal/plan.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at ROI comparatively to your ITM and sample size is what determines how you decide to move up.

At least, thats my goal/plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

My plan has been to move up as my bankroll permits--at least 30 buy-ins, maybe 50--even if my roi is 10%. I'm looking at ROI as more of a measure of whether I will have what it takes to go pro or semi-pro in the future.