Top 2 pair - too much action?

[Shorty35]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($99)
MP2 ($272.65)
MP3 ($88.8)
CO ($128.95)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($116.99)</font>
SB ($76.3)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($100)</font>
UTG ($23.9)
UTG+1 ($169)
UTG+2 ($114.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $20</font>, SB folds, BB calls $14, Hero ?

[PoBoy321]

Why did you cold-call BB's bet?

[Shorty35]

he was the super lag at the table.

[Shorty35]

bump

[bigt439]

Still have to raise the flop bet because of how co-ordinated the board is and what you could let in behind. I really feel like its close here, but the problem is with a 3-way draw heavy board and a lag in front of you it's looking almost like push or fold. You're getting called alot more by hands that crush you (sets, and straights) than you are by the hands you're reasonably ahead of (draws, tptk). I think you can probably fold and look for a better spot.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
he was the super lag at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand your reasoning -- he was super-LAG so you are better off just letting him hang himself, assuming it is just you and he left in the hand. However, that assumption is wrong, and your tactic has put you in a bind. With people yet to act behind you, you should have raised to isolate the LAG.

Anyway, given where you are:

Button could easily be raising with just an overpair like 99, or even just A7, hoping the isolate the super-LAG for himself. You were looking to convince your opponent that you are just on a draw, and you succeeded! Of course, Button might also be holding 64s or a set, in which case you are drawing to 4, 2, or zero outs, hence the drama. Or maybe he just has a really good draw, like 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. If that were the case, he should be happy to go all in on this flop against two opponents, but so would you.

If you are variance-averse, then fold -- you'll hate to find out you were drawing thin or dead. If you consider Button to be pretty passive, such that this raise should mean a straight or a set more than half the time, then fold. If you think Button is likely to be making this raise on a draw, then call or raise.

Hmmmm. I just thought of a different way to approach it. Let's assume that button does have the straight, could you possibly call? You have only 4 outs, and we'll assume they are all clean. The great thing is that, if you do hit, he will probably double you up, plus you'll get what BB has already put in and might put in in the future. (Note that, in the cases where he gets away from this, he probably didn't have the straight in the first place so you were ahead all along.) So you will be calling $14 to win $125, and your odds of hitting are 4-to-41. It's darn close. If you think that there is a decent chance he has less than a set, call and look at the turn.

Note that this is assuming only 1 draw at your full house. Your odds will get a lot worse if you miss and he bets again, because the bet will probably go up and the implied odds will probably go down. On the other hand, he might check behind if he doesn't have any more than the overpair. So I would say call here, but be prepared to let it go to a significant bet on the turn if you don't hit one of your 4 outs.

[celticGreen]

I can't see calling in this situation, as you would have $72 left and the pot would be at $50. I'd be worried about the number of scare cards you are going to see on 4th and 5th and if a bet gets thrown out it'll be hard to get anyone to fold at that point by pushing.

I think it's either fold or push. I'd probably fold with no good read.

Hands you'd probably be up against: overpair (88-TT maybe?), flush draw, or maybe TPTK. Basically, the only cards I think you'd want to see would be 4, 5, 6, 7 -- especially against two opponents.

I think re-raising to $18 or so after the BB might have given you more information.

I suck though, so I'm interested to hear other opinions.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's either fold or push. I'd probably fold with no good read.
I suck though, so I'm interested to hear other opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I don't know if you suck or I do, but I do disagree. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I think that the problem with pushing is that you get calls from all the better hands and folds from all the worse ones, which means you win what is there or you are all in with 4 (or fewer!) outs.

On the other hand, as I showed above, you very nearly have implied odds to take a card even if you have only 4 outs. When you combine that with the possibility that you are, in fact, ahead and can get to the river cheaply, I think it is worth it. Note that if the flush gets there, it will freeze up your opponent if he has only an overpair. Or he might just freeze up on his own.

[heebos]

Assuming 4 clean outs, I like calling the button on the flop rather than pushing, for the reasons that Zag mentioned. I prefer to use it while drawing at a cinch gutshot rather than a boat, since a paired board will sometimes freeze the OP.

I think the problem that people have with it is that this play kind of defies common poker logic, as if you think you have the best hand against a draw, you should raise; and if you think you're beat, there's no reason to put any more money into the pot. As long as you are able to get away on 4th if you don't hit, I like this play a lot (used sparingly), provided he won't be scared away if the board pairs.

I'm curious to hear about the +/- EV of a play like this. One thing I find beneficial is that people get scared to give me free cards, so they tend to telegraph the strength of their hand up front. This, obviously, gets me into a lot less trouble. It seems to work for me, but tell me what you think.