Fun w/ AQs

[The Dude]

Party Poker 5-10, 9 Handed. MP in this hand is a 25/13'er w/ 2.6/1.6/1.3 aggression.

Preflop:
UTG raises, The Dude 3-bets in EMP w/ A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP caps. Folded back to The Dude who calls.

Flop: (11 SBs) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">( 2 Players)</font>
The Dude checks, MP bets, The Dude calls.

Turn: (6.25 BBs) J/images/graemlins/club.gif
The Dude checks, MP bets, The Dude calls.

River: (8.25 BBs) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif
The Dude checks...

Comments?

[Elbie]

Looks fine. Did you manage to get the river checkraise?

[chief444]

Nice hand. The low river aggression is a bit of a concern but I don't think this gets checked through very often at all and you're likely to get paid off by anything he bets with.

AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AQ - 19 combinations all of which probably bet/call

AK/TT - 18 combinations but unlikely IMO given the turn bet.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

nh sir.

though this isn't that fun. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

whatever happened to raising Granny Mae and capping backdoor draws?

[The Dude]

What river aggression numbers (if any) does your opponent have to have before you'll bet this river?

[Munga30]

[ QUOTE ]
What river aggression numbers (if any) does your opponent have to have before you'll bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]
1&gt;villian&lt;2.2

[The Dude]

It would be hard for me to imagine villian not betting any made hand on this river. He'd have to have an aggression number below .4 with at least 400 hands for me to want to bet for that reason. Your 2.2 number, however, sounds about right to me.

[Yobz]

I like it...only the K can come to ruin the day. What happens if the turn was the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif or J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, does that change anything for you? What if the river didn't bring the flush?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
What if the river didn't bring the flush?


[/ QUOTE ]

check/call?

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]

I like it...only the K can come to ruin the day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? There's a very good chance I was behind on every street - until the river, that is. I even had mixed feelings about the J on the turn, because JJ and AK (and maybe TT) were the only hands I outflopped. AA, KK, QQ, and JJ are all very real possibilities.

[meep_42]

Very interesting -- much of the time i'd expect a lot of the players that post here to semi-bluff TPTK and a flush draw on the turn, but it seems clear that this invites a 3-bet much of the time, and hardly ever a fold.

-d

[The Dude]

With this guy's pf numbers, checkraising the turn is pretty bad.

[meep_42]

I wholeheartedly agree, I'm just saying that I think it wouldn't be uncommon to see it espoused here if you'd have stopped the action on the turn bet.

-d

[The Dude]

Yeah, I got what you meant. I didn't mean to imply that I thought you were advocating that.

F*ck it, let's go bowling.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
F*ck it, let's go bowling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Word.

-d

[That guy]

Dude, I thought you played bigger than 5/10?

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, I thought you played bigger than 5/10?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to have meant that reply for The Dude.

-d

[NickRegino]

Did you get your c/r in at the end?

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
And what do you do, sir?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm unemployed.

[The Dude]

No, villian had AKs and checked behind.

[meep_42]

Thinking about this more -- how often to you expect the villain to pay off your c/r with AA/KK/AK/AQ? (obviously JJ/QQ pay off and may re-raise)

This info is essential to knowing how often he needs to bet in order for this to be better than betting out. (Where all those hands will probably call you.)

-d

[Nate tha' Great]

The right move on the turn IMO is to bet out and call down if raised. Something like AK, TT or 99 (?) could easily take a free card here. Also, AA and KK could get sheepish and just call if you bet, which means that the bet-out doesn't cost you anything. The betout also sets up the river play nicely, as if your opponent raises the turn, you can be almost certain of getting in a check-raise in on the river if you hit the flush, whereas if you just check-call, that proposition is dicey since he'll often take a free showdown on the river.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
how often to you expect the villain to pay off your c/r with AA/KK/AK/AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]
If he chooses to bet AK, he's folding it to the cr, but he's paying me off w/ AA and KK every time.

[iluzion]

Can someone explain to me why you wouldn't bet or check/raise the flop?

[nervous]

[ QUOTE ]

1&gt;villian&lt;2.2

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just not possible.