Third level thinking on the river

[Ghazban]

Party 1/2 game (no HH, as I'm at work) full of tight, bad players. I have K7o in the BB.

Folded around to the button, who raises to $5, SB folds, I call. Button has openlimped from the button numerous times and generally raises more than this (to $8, regardless of position and number of limpers) with a real hand. I figure him to either be on a pure steal or on a big pair that he wants action on.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($11 less rake)

I check, he bets $5, I call quickly. With the timing and small size of his bet, I feel he doesn't like his hand on this flop. If I checkraise here, I think he folds everything I beat (JJ, TT, AQ, etc.) and calls/raises with everything else (set, AK, AA, etc.).

Turn: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($21 less rake)

I check, he bets $15, I call. I think he's put me on a flush draw and is trying to bet me out. The check/quick call I was doing really looks like a heart draw. Again, I don't lead out or checkraise for the same reasons as before.

River: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif ($51 less rake)

I check, he bets $25, I call quickly. This is where I got amused. If he checked, I expect I would have lost but, because he bet, I was confident my hand was best. If he puts me on a flush draw, he's not betting a one-pair hand for value, therefore he's only betting a very strong hand (the only strong hand that might play this way I can think of is JJ) or a hopeless hand with no showdown value.


Flame away.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I wouldn't make it SOP to call a raise with K7o OOP. However, if you feel that the guy has been getting out of line attacking your blinds and you want to take a stand, I don't mind it as the occasional move (it is certainly better than 42o since it has SOME high card value) and I like your postflop play.

[Ghazban]

You're right about the preflop call-- that's certainly not something I make a habit of. As I've said, though, I'll call a minraise with any two out of the BB and I rationalized this to myself at the time by saying 2.5xBB isn't a real raise, either. If he'd made his standard 4x raise, I definitely would've folded.

[BirdieLongSocks]

I dont mind the check cal on the flop, but I think you haft to get some info on your opponents hand on the turn, bet out and call/fold depending on your opponent.

HOWEVER, this seems to have gotten you some cash from a Q.

[Zag]

Why do you expect flames? You made a read and you trusted it. You won't always be right when you do this, but if you don't trust your reads then they will never get better. (I assume that you were on this occasion or you wouldn't have posted it). In any case, you clearly had enough to beat a bluff, so if your read was for a bluff, then you should call.

I certainly can't argue with the read -- you were there and I wasn't, and you had real reasons for it, not just a pipe dream. However, I wonder if some of those weren't justification after the fact. I would be curious whether or not you had a sense of this guy's bluffing ratio, whether or not you really think he can fire three shots, etc.

Overall, you sometimes have to call people down with a somewhat substandard hand. If you always call three 1/2 pot+ bets with TPnK, then you have a big leak, but if you never do, then you have a leak as well. Given your read, this was the right time to do it, and I hope it worked out for you.

[KowCiller]

Ghaz-

Interesting hand. Obviously PF isn't standard, but you had a read on this guy so no biggie.

One question: What would you have done had be put in a pot sized (or close) bet on the river? Would you have called? Edit: Ok that was two questions /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

In that light, what do you think of a $20 blocking bet on this river? Is this guy capable of bluff-raising the river? If not, I wonder if it would give Villain an opportunity to fold a better king? (K9, KT?) or at least get you a cheap showdown against a marginal hand?

I generally like your check-call line as it tends to get most people to either keep firing on bluffs or better for value (so they think) with a hand like AQ in this spot.

Your thoughts here got me thinking:

[ QUOTE ]
If he checked, I expect I would have lost but, because he bet, I was confident my hand was best. If he puts me on a flush draw, he's not betting a one-pair hand for value, therefore he's only betting a very strong hand (the only strong hand that might play this way I can think of is JJ) or a hopeless hand with no showdown value.


[/ QUOTE ]

You bring up an interesting point, but I'm not convinced it's something that can be applied to most (or many?) Villains. I think there's a decent range of hands here that many would also value bet this river... KJ, KQ, QJ, AT, 44, 55, along with the big pairs.

I hope it worked out for you and certainly if this was an opponent specific read, well done! I'm interested to hear if you think this logic can be applied to a significant portion of PP opponents.

KoW

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a decent range of hands here that many would also value bet this river... KJ, KQ, QJ, AT, 44, 55, along with the big pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think button would've made his preflop raise with 44 or 55 (he'd openlimped SCs on the button before and would expect similar behavior from small pairs). I think he'd make a real raise with KQ, too. I also think KJ and 44 bet the flop heavier as they'd want to charge flush and straight draws. AT probably checks behind on the turn hoping to hit the gutshot on the river. QJ is a possibility, but I'm not sure it would bet the river.... I'll have to think about that.

[KowCiller]

Ok, sounds like you know this opponent pretty well and you went with your read. I can dig it.

What about my other questions in the reply? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

KoW

[Ghazban]

I don't like a blocking bet here because I don't think a worse hand will call it. A blocking bet is good when you aren't sure if your hand is good but it is strong enough to beat a good number of hands that will call you (and, ideally, will be behind 100% of the hands that raise it, so you can fold to a raise). Since worse hands won't call, I don't think betting is +EV.

With respect to the size of the river bet, I think I would've called a larger bet (say up to pot size) without too much hesitation. When somebody bets under 1/2 pot on the flop, 2/3 pot on the turn, and full pot on the river, it looks a lot like they're trying harder and harder on each street to get you to fold.

An interesting thing to notice here is that, with a large river bet, I am more confident that my hand is good and, with a small river bet, I am less confident in the quality of my hand but pot odds make it correct (or closer to correct) to call expecting to lose.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
An interesting thing to notice here is that, with a large river bet, I am more confident that my hand is good and, with a small river bet, I am less confident in the quality of my hand but pot odds make it correct (or closer to correct) to call expecting to lose.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this logic you routinely rely on or is this specific to this one opponent? I'm wondering if I might have a serious leak in situations such as these.

Edit: the reason I say this is because I've found (at least on the $50NL PP tables) that a great many players have fallen into the trap of "weak bet = weak hand, strong bet = strong hand." Perhaps this isn't the case in the higher games you play?

KoW

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think this is often correct logic. However, if you are facing good opponents then you need to be very careful with thoughts along those lines. I have several notes on players which say "will pay off overbets on river". You don't want one of those on you.

[Ghazban]

Well, it depends a lot on the situation and the opponent. Guys like spirit rock (Mahatma) in the big UB game make a lot of money by making massive overbets with various strength hands. Sure, he gets caught sometimes but other times people look him up and he's got the goods (or they just fold and he picks up a ton of small pots). Against an opponent like this (i.e. hard to read and very aggressive), I don't know if I could make a call like that on the river. However, against this particular opponent, the hand played out in such a way that I felt I was good all along. River betting doesn't happen in a vacuum; you have to piece together the likelihood of your hand being good from the actions on all the previous streets, too. If you can't come up with a hand that beats you that would reasonably play the way your opponent is playing (assuming a reasonable opponent), calling big bets on the river with marginal holdings is not too hard.