I need help with AQo!!! Hand from last nights $200 +$15 on UB.

[soxfan70]

AQ is a hand that seems to give me almost as much, if not more, trouble than JJ. I am really interested to hear people's comments and their thought process about this hand. Early stage of $200 + $15 MTT on UB last night. I'm on the button with about $2800, Blinds are $20/$40. Folded to cutoff who limps, I have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif and riase it $120. SB folds, BB re-reaises to $420. Cutoff folds, and it's back to me for another $300. I call the $300 - Question 1: Should I have laid it down? What would your thought process be here if you could/would lay it down?
The flop is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. The BB leads out with a pot sized bet. Question 2: What would this bet mean to you? Did he re-raise with a middle pair, and hopes the Q is a scare card for me?
Question 3: You've got top pair with top kicker. Flat calling (in my opinon) is not an option. Any meaningful raise will pot commit me, so it's either push or fold. What do you do?
Results shortly...

[bestcellar]

I push in this situation because I'm fairly certain I'm best here with that flop, although I'm nearly certain you're going to say he had either A2 or KK and had you beat.

[Simplistic]

I laydown AQ here. this is read dependent too, the problem is, this is early in the tournament and it's not like he's re-stealing from you. you hit your best possible flop aside from hitting 2 queens but you still have the itching suspicion he has KK or AA.

your initial raise indicates a degree of strength, say midpp-AA, and AQ-AK. or even QK. he re-raises that to a point to if you call you've got about 20% of your chips in the middle, you hit your flop and he bets into you.

what do you put him on? is he firing a continuation bet? if he really does have AA-KK, does he play the re-raise in this fashion?

I say he has jacks and is hoping the flop didn't hit you. could be wrong but that's my read /images/graemlins/smile.gif let me know how it went

[schwza]

i would be willing to go broke here. i think the best way to do it is to call the flop. if you're ahead, villain has at most 3 outs, so give him a chance to bluff of the rest of his chips with AK if he missed completely. push the turn if he checks.

[tiger7210]

I think this is very depenedent on who the rearaiser is. If the guy is a rock I lay it down PF as AQ is a hand that can get you in a very difficult spot especially wthout deep stacks.

When making my decision PF I always consider the fact especially ON UB what am I going to do when I call and he hits the favorite button ( BET POT ).

I have no room to manuever and unless you flopp 2 QQ, a str8, or AQ you are left with an extremely difficult decision.

If the villain is extremely loose raising a lot of hands then I may decide to go with it and hope this isn't the one time he has a real hand but normally I don't call reraises to my raise with AQ especially against aggressive post flop players where I know I'm going to be faced witha very difficult decision.

[Simplistic]

bingo

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]

The flop is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. The BB leads out with a pot sized bet. [b]Question 2: What would this bet mean to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

It means theres a pot sized bet button on UB, and most people dont knw what to bet, so they hit that button. Once you called preflop, you have to push this flop.

[schwza]

why is pushing better than calling? the only reason i see is that if villain has something like 88 he's more likely to call a push now than if a J hits on the turn.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
why is pushing better than calling? the only reason i see is that if villain has something like 88 he's more likely to call a push now than if a J hits on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you WANT him to lay it down in that case on any street?

[bestcellar]

never mind, I'm an idiot

[Pat Southern]

Good point, I saw he said push or fold and I didn't really look at the stacks to see that they still have some chips behind them. Smooth call is much better here.

[soxfan70]

My thinking there was almost exactly the opposite of yours. He was more likely to fold his 88 - JJ now. Maybe my thinking is flawed here, and please tell me if it is, but I'd rather take this down now, than call here and let him hit his set on the turn.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking there was almost exactly the opposite of yours. He was more likely to fold his 88 - JJ now. Maybe my thinking is flawed here, and please tell me if it is, but I'd rather take this down now, than call here and let him hit his set on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you want 88-JJ sticking around and putting as much money in as possible. if you think he'll get his stack in with those hands on the turn but not on the flop, then it's a bad mistake to shut him out of the pot.

if he winds up all-in on the turn, you're giving him two chances to hit a 2-outer, which is ~8%. the only time this would not be beneficial to you is if the pot were already huge relative to his stack, and it's not.

[soxfan70]

MLG made a reply to one of my posts a while back about not making a bet (or a raise) because it would only be called by hands that beat you, and folded by hands that you beat. Do you think that concept applies here?

[schwza]

not really, because KQ/QJ and JJ-88 might call if you push.

i'd say it would apply better if you held something like TT.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
MLG made a reply to one of my posts a while back about not making a bet (or a raise) because it would only be called by hands that beat you, and folded by hands that you beat. Do you think that concept applies here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, pocket pairs <Q call you here. But you are in position against an aggressor with TPTK, by calling you extract the most, when ahead, lose the same when you're behind. Just hope an A or K doesn't come on the turn and he'll probably push into you.

[soxfan70]

Well, as you can probably guess, I came over the top of the flop bet for all my chips and got called. He showed KK and I was done. Once I call the pre-flop re-raise I'm going broke here every time. I keep questioning my call of that re-raise. I think one person said they would have mucked to the re-raise. Does anyone think that that is too tight? I'm torn now, and I know it's easier after the fact, but what else would the guy have re-raised with in the BB, with the initial raise coming from the button?

[Simplistic]

as I said I muck to the re-raise, but with that flop you go with it.

by the way, i like calling down in this situation rather than pushing the flop

[tiger7210]

The reason I opted to muck PF is a good player probably isn't making this re-raise out of position without a hand that beats AQ. To put myself in the position of the BB- i would rather keep the pot smaller with a hand like 77-JJ's AK/AQ/AJ knowing I'm going to be out of position after the flop. You also have to consider that you're going to be putting in 20% of your chips PF knowing you are going to whiff 2 out of 3 times and you know he's going to bet into you no matter what comes off.

I think this is a very similar situation to David Sklansky mucking AK PF to TJ's re raise from the BB with AQ.

If I'm holding a monster I don't mind playing a big pot out of position since my chips are going in anyways. His reraise to me was just enough to entice a call or push from a smaller pair/ AK/AQ which he doesn't want to fold.

I just don't believe laying down AQ PF at this stage of the tourny is weak/tight unless its to a maniac. It's certainly situation dependent but to me in this particular situation I have no problem tossing it now with only 120 chips invested.

[bruce]

Haven't read any of the comments, but I fold BTF. Did some
quick math and assuming he will reraise with pocket nines through Aces and also AK you will win ~25% of the time and
your preflop call is offering you only 2-1, so mathematically speaking you have a clear fold. Also why risk a big stack of chips when you only have a measley T120 invested.

Bruce

[schwza]

one factor it obviously depends on is your prior level of aggression. i tend to raise a lot of pots, so people frequently play back at me with less than AQ.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming he will reraise with pocket nines through Aces and also AK

[/ QUOTE ]

well if that's his range then obviously a fold. but i think that's way too narrow.

[bruce]

See my response below.

There are six pocket pairs I'll assume he can have (nines through jacks). There are six combinations of all but Queens and Aces (since you have one).
There are four combos of Aces and Queens and I believe 12 of
Ace King. Against nines through Jacks you win half the time. Against all other hands you lose badly.

There are 18 combos of nines through jacks.
There are 12 combos of AK
There are 6 of Kings
There are 4 of Aces and Queens

You win half you hands against nines through jacks and the other for the sake of simplicity you win 4 times.

So you have 13 wins and 40 losses.

Dump your hand BTF. You don't have to hope you up against an idiot.

Bruce

[schwza]

if i folded AQ here, a resteal against me would be successful against me 90% of the time. this would obvioulsy be a problem. i acknowledge this is player-dependent. against an unknown though, i would call.

[bruce]

If he's reasonable and that's a big assumption online, from the big blind, that's a pretty fair range of hands. I doubt he would reraise with two big suited pictures and even if he we add smaller pocket pairs it's still a fold. We have to take into consideration that he will be out of position the entire hand and I would make the assumption that he is aware of this also prior to him reraising.

bruce

Bruce

[bruce]

With a limper in, the blind should assume the button has some half way decent hand and the likely of him making a resteal goes down.
Bruce

[Roman]

I think that with the stacks as deep as they are, the opponent would not build a big pot out of position with a mid pair that would be really hard to play after the flop. With a 15x stack, folding AQ to a reraise from the button is usually not an option, this hand however shows how AQ is really bad with deep stacks, especially in reraised pots.

[bruce]

If you have a small pocket pair in the blind
why not try to flop a set on the cheap. If I flop a set
I will probably double up. With your raise there is T220 in
the pot and even if he has junk it's costing him T80 so he
is getting 3-1 on his call. If I get those odds I am going to see a lot of flops esp. if I have a hand where I can bust my opponent. I certainly would play every pocket pair. Depending upon how well I play from the flop out of position
I would adjust by adding more hands.

Bruce