Dazarath
05-02-2005, 05:37 AM
I was reading some other topic about blind stealing and it sort of got me wondering. Assuming that you have a large enough sample of hands where you can assume your opponents' FSB and FBB stats are correct, there should be some threshold where you can profitably open-raise any two cards on the button for a blind steal. Someone please correct me if my calculations are off.
These calcuations are solely based on fold equity. For the moment, I will assume that I lose if either blind calls my raise, and that my FSB/FBB stats on my opponents are correct. I will use the 15/30 blind structure, as that is what I play.
EV = (chance that both will fold) * (amount of blinds) - (chance that either/both will call) * (amount of raise)
EV = FSB * FBB * 25 - (1 - FSB * FBB) * 30 > 0
EV = FSB * FBB * 25 - 30 + FSB * FBB * 30 > 0
EV = FSB * FBB * 55 - 30 > 0
FSB * FBB * 55 > 30
FSB * FBB > 30/55 = 6/11 = ~0.545
Obviously, if I try to steal the blinds too many times with trash, my opponents will pick up on what I'm doing and start defending more. Of course, if I were at a table where it got folded to me three times in a row when I was on the button, I'd probably switch games. This calculation also doesn't take into account that even when they call, I can still win with my 62o. I realize that if the blinds do play very well postflop, or if one/both are very aggressive postflop, any EV I gain preflop could be lost postflop. Usually though, if they're that aggressive postflop, I'd expect them to be 3-betting a lot more and not have that high FSB/FBB.
- Any comments anyone? If my calculations were incorrect, please let me know. I'd hate to be trying this out on the tables making a -EV play.
- Also, if anyone thinks there might be other factors that I'm missing which would cause this to be a -EV play, regardless of the fact that the SB/BB have FSB/FBB of 75/80%, please point them out.
- What if the FSB/FBB of the blinds are 65/90, as opposed to 90/65. Should that make a difference? My guess is in the second case, the small blind will be making mistakes more than the big blind will, as he's calling with way too many hands. I think I'd be more inclined to attempt steals with marginal hands in this situation.
- While I'm attempting this play, if I get 3-bet, and I have 32o, should I call at this point? I'm getting over 5:1 on my money and folding would probably look pretty bad for my image if I plan to attempt any future blind steals.
- In the situation where both blinds play poorly postflop, should I lower my FSB * FBB threshold for blind stealing, or should I just lower my blind stealing hand requirements?
These calcuations are solely based on fold equity. For the moment, I will assume that I lose if either blind calls my raise, and that my FSB/FBB stats on my opponents are correct. I will use the 15/30 blind structure, as that is what I play.
EV = (chance that both will fold) * (amount of blinds) - (chance that either/both will call) * (amount of raise)
EV = FSB * FBB * 25 - (1 - FSB * FBB) * 30 > 0
EV = FSB * FBB * 25 - 30 + FSB * FBB * 30 > 0
EV = FSB * FBB * 55 - 30 > 0
FSB * FBB * 55 > 30
FSB * FBB > 30/55 = 6/11 = ~0.545
Obviously, if I try to steal the blinds too many times with trash, my opponents will pick up on what I'm doing and start defending more. Of course, if I were at a table where it got folded to me three times in a row when I was on the button, I'd probably switch games. This calculation also doesn't take into account that even when they call, I can still win with my 62o. I realize that if the blinds do play very well postflop, or if one/both are very aggressive postflop, any EV I gain preflop could be lost postflop. Usually though, if they're that aggressive postflop, I'd expect them to be 3-betting a lot more and not have that high FSB/FBB.
- Any comments anyone? If my calculations were incorrect, please let me know. I'd hate to be trying this out on the tables making a -EV play.
- Also, if anyone thinks there might be other factors that I'm missing which would cause this to be a -EV play, regardless of the fact that the SB/BB have FSB/FBB of 75/80%, please point them out.
- What if the FSB/FBB of the blinds are 65/90, as opposed to 90/65. Should that make a difference? My guess is in the second case, the small blind will be making mistakes more than the big blind will, as he's calling with way too many hands. I think I'd be more inclined to attempt steals with marginal hands in this situation.
- While I'm attempting this play, if I get 3-bet, and I have 32o, should I call at this point? I'm getting over 5:1 on my money and folding would probably look pretty bad for my image if I plan to attempt any future blind steals.
- In the situation where both blinds play poorly postflop, should I lower my FSB * FBB threshold for blind stealing, or should I just lower my blind stealing hand requirements?