AK River decision

[MagicFlea]

after 32 hands, villain has yet to bet/raise after the flop (24/3/0)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (6 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls

not exactly a scare card, but it seems if he has a raising hand I beat (pretty much any A) why did he wait for the river? The fact that he hadn't bet once after 32 hands swayed my decision. I still think I'm ahead, but I'm risking 2BB in a 8BB (after a call) pot if I raise to see I'm beaten. What say you?

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

If you can give him credit for the WA/WB line with an A, which is difficult to do given the limited very passive read you have him, I can see raising, but he might be bet folding in that situation anyway.

Given your read, I'd call.

-Craig

[cold_cash]

I would call and expect to see a slowplayed 4 some of the time, running hearts some of the time, and a worse Ace some of the time.

[Paxosmotic]

Re-raise. What are we afraid of here, 53? Backdoor flush? It's a semi-bluff from a guy adamant on defending his big blind with a smaller ace. If he had you beat, he'd have broke out the check raise. You're good all day. Re-raise.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
What are we afraid of here, 53?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so much 53 as 4x, but I wouldn't rule it out.

[ QUOTE ]
Backdoor flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.

[ QUOTE ]
It's a semi-bluff from a guy adamant on defending his big blind with a smaller ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't semi-bluff on the river. If he's bluff-bluffing, calling is clearly the best option.

[ QUOTE ]
If he had you beat, he'd have broke out the check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know?

[ QUOTE ]
You're good all day.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might be good, but not all day.

[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[KDawgCometh]

I like it. Him waking up on the river blows, you still might be ahead, but he won't call a raise unless he has you dead to rights

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise. What are we afraid of here, 53? Backdoor flush? It's a semi-bluff from a guy adamant on defending his big blind with a smaller ace. If he had you beat, he'd have broke out the check raise. You're good all day. Re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is he calling a raise that doesn't have us beat here. What happens if he threebets, then we just wasted 3BBs on the river to find out that we were beat when we could've spent 1 BB to find out the same info

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise. What are we afraid of here, 53? Backdoor flush? It's a semi-bluff from a guy adamant on defending his big blind with a smaller ace. If he had you beat, he'd have broke out the check raise. You're good all day. Re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is he calling a raise that doesn't have us beat here. What happens if he threebets, then we just wasted 3BBs on the river to find out that we were beat when we could've spent 1 BB to find out the same info

[/ QUOTE ]
To above, I don't know why I put semi-bluff, but yeah, I meant bluff. I'm retarded.

Villain has seen Hero open on the flop and turn. If Villain has the best hand, he has no reason to think Hero won't open the river either, at which time Villain can come over the top and trap Hero. Opening is a play that makes no sense in this situation, and I'd say he's probably representing a flush that he only wishes he had.

[Klepton]

i would raise this river if i could fold to a 3-bet

seeing as i can't, calling is fine, i think this is a prime example of a donkbet

[admiralfluff]

I agree with your analysis, but I think folding to a 3 bet would be fine here given the passive read. I would raise it. He's probably betting his rivered 2 pair with A2 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
He's probably betting his rivered 2 pair with A2 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's dumb enough to lead with A2 on the river he's dumb enough to 3-bet it.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's bluff-bluffing, calling is clearly the best option.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Raising allows you to not show your hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[admiralfluff]

i disagree. I don't resally think he has A2 here, but passive3 players will often make strange leads with garbage, and call down a raise. This type does tend to be looser than 24 VPIP in my experience, but I still think I would raise here, and fold to a 3 bet.

[Nick Royale]

Calling is the best option IMO. He might be using WA/WB but with these stats I wouldn't count on it. The stats makes the call easier even if they're just based on a small sample. Sure, if he really caught the flush he should be check/raising and if he had the 4 he should not have played this way, but since villain seems bad he might very well have one of these hands.