Chicken or Wise??

[davidross]

***** Hand History for Game 1985649637 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:11829859 Level:9 Blinds (200/400) - Sunday, May 01, 23:14:37 EDT 2005
Table $50,000 Guaranteed Sunday Night Poker(317503) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: davidross ( $7770 )
Seat 8: ShroBoy ( $3720 )
Seat 5: jabik ( $2436 )
Seat 1: Econo1 ( $5860 )
Seat 9: BamMattDavis ( $2590 )
Seat 2: Assassin8tor ( $12861 )
Seat 6: shad24 ( $2273 )
Seat 3: seanmk ( $1870 )
Seat 4: tyekim ( $2600 )
Seat 10: THEPANGUY ( $2340 )
Trny:11829859 Level:9
Blinds (200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to davidross [ 8s 8h ]
ShroBoy folds.
BamMattDavis folds.
THEPANGUY folds.
Econo1 folds.
Assassin8tor folds.
seanmk folds.
tyekim is all-In [2600]
jabik folds.
shad24 folds.
Assassin8tor: just getting some cards is all
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
davidross folds.
tyekim does not show cards.
tyekim wins 3200 chips
and holding up

[MLG]

he has 5BBs here, what makes you think you could be behind his range of hands?

[Pat Southern]

I think its an easy call

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,037,612,832 games 5.781 secs 698,428,097 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 57.3154 % [ 00.57 00.00 ] { 88 }
Hand 2: 42.6846 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }

[Jason Strasser]

Lets play a game.

Its called a roll reversal game.

Now you are in LP and it folds to you and you have 5bb and you push, and the big blind folds 88 face up.

How do you feel?

-Jason

[yecul]

I think it's a call unless you have some soul-searching method to know he has a larger pair. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Though, I don't think it's a horrible fold or anything.

[davidross]

I just didn't think it was likely i was way ahead, but I posted it to see if I'm becoming a big wuss.

I chose to wait until I had QQ and the other guy had AA to make my move... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I won though... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[billyjex]

I think this is a very easy call.

[MLG]

david, you've mentioned this concept of not ever being far ahead before. when you're far away from the money that doesnt matter. all that matters is how you do against the villain's range.


also, you don't think he would push with A7,A8,55,66,77?

[sirio11]

I vote chicken.

[SoBeDude]

Bwaaaaak!!

(But as you can see from my other thread, I'm not immune either)

-Scott

[davidross]

Everyone seems to agree I should have called so I'll accept the general wisdom and say I made the wrong play.

My thinking at the time was that I was one of 2 big stacks at the table, and I can get the lost BB back rather easily whenever I want. I just don't like calling such a big chunk of my stack on what I hope is a coin toss. This guy had been fairly conservative, although later on I saw him make some really loose raises so who knows?

It seems to me at this stage of the tournament where there are so many people starting to push small stacks I can usually get chips with much better odds and less risk. With TT I think I make this call pretty easily but I really didn't put A7 or A8 in the hands I thought he'd push with.

[Chaostracize]

I think a lot has to do with how well you can play a big stack. 6.5 BBs is still pretty hefty, and while you are doing pretty good against his range, there are 4 players to act behind you.

Could you give us some reads? Had this particular villain been raising much before? Do the blinds like to splash around?

I think it's a call, but I don't think it's completely clear cut. But maybe I'm a chicken. Although I'd call with 83o in an instant. (Joke).

Edit: I'm starting to think it's not as close as I thought. But I still think it's closer than some people are saying. Is this a good table to steal at? I think that's another important question.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to agree I should have called so I'll accept the general wisdom and say I made the wrong play

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably a nitpick, but the play wasn't wrong because thats what the general concensus says, the play is wrong because thats what the math behind it says. Putting him on an extremely conservative range, AA-66, AKs-A8s, AKo-A9o, KQ, KJ, then 88 is still 50%. I can't imagine the pushers range being any tighter.

So, while you interpret this situation as being at best a coinflip against whatever he is holding, I suggest that you should really look at it another way. You are in fact at worst 50% against his range of hands. You head says you are at best a coinflip, the math says you are at worst a coinflip.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
extremely conservative range, AA-66, AKs-A8s, AKo-A9o, KQ, KJ,

[/ QUOTE ]

and this is really conservative. could you imagine folding 55/KT/A7s with 6.5 bb's in the CO?

i'd call here with 66 for sure, and maybe lower.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to agree I should have called so I'll accept the general wisdom and say I made the wrong play

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably a nitpick, but the play wasn't wrong because thats what the general concensus says, the play is wrong because thats what the math behind it says. Putting him on an extremely conservative range, AA-66, AKs-A8s, AKo-A9o, KQ, KJ, then 88 is still 50%. I can't imagine the pushers range being any tighter.

So, while you interpret this situation as being at best a coinflip against whatever he is holding, I suggest that you should really look at it another way. You are in fact at worst 50% against his range of hands. You head says you are at best a coinflip, the math says you are at worst a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I could just search for your posts in MTT, read only those, and be happy. If I finally win a WSOP sat, I'm buying you a round in vegas.

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets play a game.

Its called a roll reversal game.

Now you are in LP and it folds to you and you have 5bb and you push, and the big blind folds 88 face up.

How do you feel?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Giddy? Ecstatic? Overcome with joy because I had 33? Those are pretty close.

[DonButtons]

I think its +EV to steal davidross's blind everytime, he might even fold KK if its vs me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets play a game.

Its called a roll reversal game.

Now you are in LP and it folds to you and you have 5bb and you push, and the big blind folds 88 face up.

How do you feel?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Great way to look at it. If the BB actually folded the 88 face up, I'm now raising 100% of his blinds with position. And doing so is a guaranteed +EV play.

-Scott

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lets play a game.

Its called a roll reversal game.

Now you are in LP and it folds to you and you have 5bb and you push, and the big blind folds 88 face up.

How do you feel?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Great way to look at it. If the BB actually folded the 88 face up, I'm now raising 100% of his blinds with position. And doing so is a guaranteed +EV play.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does this matter, since he isn't folding face up.

[Pat Southern]

Because if the SB is happy when you fold your 88 face up, that means that he gained, and therefore you lost by not calling.

[MLG]

Thanks man, win your seat so I can hold you to that /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks man, win your seat so I can hold you to that /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm working on it /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[2005]

Mike, I'll buy you a beer and a lap dance /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Mike, I'll buy you a beer and a lap dance /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll buy you a beer and give you a lap dance.


did i just cross the line?

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mike, I'll buy you a beer and a lap dance /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll buy you a beer and give you a lap dance.


did i just cross the line?

[/ QUOTE ]

SWEET, SIGN ME UP

[MLG]

Not to be a stick in the mud, but do I get to play poker anywhere in this Vegas trip? Maybe while I'm getting the lap dance from Soss? Can't wait for the trip guys.

[2005]

poker? you're going to Vegas and you want to play poker?

Gavin

[SossMan]

http://www.horrorklinik.com/catalog/images/small/4491B-os.jpg

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lets play a game.

Its called a roll reversal game.

Now you are in LP and it folds to you and you have 5bb and you push, and the big blind folds 88 face up.

How do you feel?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Great way to look at it. If the BB actually folded the 88 face up, I'm now raising 100% of his blinds with position. And doing so is a guaranteed +EV play.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does this matter, since he isn't folding face up.

[/ QUOTE ]

the point I'm making is that if he's that weak-tight in the blinds, then attacking them at every turn is a very profitable scenario.

-Scott