sustainable winrate?

[eagletmr]

What is a reasonable, sustainable bb/100 poker tracker win rate on NL .25-.50 cent on party ($50 buy-in)? I have just switched to NL from limit (2.25 BB/100 at 2-4) and through 2,256 hands have seen a remarkable run - 49.2 BB/100. Very small sample and obviously not sustainable, but what kind of rate is sustainable? There is all kinds of posts and literature on sustainable limit winrates but I haven't been able to find anything on sustainable no limit rates. Thanks for the help,

Travis

[MLerra]

You're not looking hard enough then :-)

Many people say 10 PT BB's / 100. Some people say 10-20. Some people think 3-6.

Problem is, people have all kinds of ways of manipulating and rationalizing their results to exclude some of the times they've lost a lot. So they convince themselves they're doing much better than they are.

Personally, I feel like 5 PTBB/100 is great without GT+ and perhaps 8 PTBB/100 is great with GT+. And personally, I am at about 3 without GT+ and 4 with GT+ so far. I make some awful calls though, which lose me a lot of money... working on it :-)

[theredpill5]

I got 36 BB/100 over my last 800 hands but I'm running pretty good. When you hit a bad streak, it'll bring that down some.

[Siawyn]

Most posts I've seen claim that a 10BB/100 is a sustainable and good winrate at those levels.

[stu-unger]

i thinks its a lot tougher to create a sustainable rate for nl. i know that the 50nl on pp is super duper weak and u should see better results there than in most resonable games, even the bigger ones on pp. but if i had to guess depending on your ablility u could fall anywhere from 5ptbb/100 to 17ptbb/100 i think a lot of this relies on your ability to choose the best rooms for u. theres tons to choose from, i think your best expectancy to be in the rooms in the middle of the avg. pots.

[teamdonkey]

The answer to your question is... noone really knows. the standard deviation for NL is much higher than limit, so it takes longer to get a good read on your actual win rate. The result of this is, noone in their right mind would play enough hands at these low stakes to get a number thats within a few BB/100 of their true win rate. They'd either go broke or move up long before that point.

for example: with 9000 hands at 25NL, i can statistically say with 95% confidence that my true win rate is somewhere between 4.7 and 19.3BB/100. If i increased it to 25000 hands, its now 7.7 - 16.4. Increasing it to 100,000 still only makes it 9.9 - 14.2. Finally at 500,000 hands you've got a reasonable range, 11.1 - 13.0. If i'm still playing 25NL after half a million hands, someone please find me and kill me.

So at best you're going to get a guess. My guess is, at 50NL maybe 8-10BB/100 would be a great winrate.

[CHiPS]

Great post teamdonky ! Also my skill level does not stay constant, it of course always rises onward and upward through the reading of 2+2=4.

Does the 10BB/100 hands that is commonly cited include bonuses ? I make about 4BB/100hands from bonuses now and another 9BB/100h after 15K hands of 100NL and 200NL. Two weeks ago that 9 was probably a 7 and a month ago it was a 5 so yes today we announce our quarterly earnings and the official # is 9. (*To 9 shall thou count - and the Book of Armaments, chapter 2 says thou shalt countest to 9....8 is right out unless thou shalt also proceedest to 9*)

And yes I moved up before my time because I was winning and I liked the idea that the rake at the higher level would be smaller. Seemed to me the rake at the 200NL game is about 1.5 BB/100H less than if the % rake at the 100NL game was carried forward.

** I have 50 posts ! I am now a jouneyman ! Therefore I must journey to Vegas - soon.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
If i'm still playing 25NL after half a million hands, someone please find me and kill me.

[/ QUOTE ]

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[rikz]

I just check, and I have 34,751 hands at PP $25NL since the blind change with 4.97 big bets per 100 hands. I'm not killing the game, but I'm pretty happy with how I'm doing so far. I don't like huge swings, so it's possible that if I was willing to take some more risks and accept higher variance that I'd do better in the long run. It's also possible that I still have a lot of work to do before I'm as good as the 10BB/100 players.