Bowling

[Nate tha' Great]

I hit a spare in the top of the 7th frame and lead my friend 74-72. I offer to bet him $20. +EV?

[Evan]

Doesn't this sort of depend on how good you and your friend are at bowling?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't this sort of depend on how good you and your friend are at bowling?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 74-72 in the seventh frame.

[thirddan]

sure its +EV, but maybe not from a math point of view, i don't think there is any way to determine this with no info about your or your friend...but it is +EV cuz gambling is fun and friendly competition is good, that bet is basically, "hey, friend, loser picks up dinner? ok "...

[mason55]

If one usually bowls a 170 and is having a bad game and one usually bowls a 35 and is having a great game, it would seem like it matters, now doesn't it?

[tolbiny]

depends if your friend plays better under pressure or not.

[nothumb]

So you went first, covered the spare in the 7th and he is yet to bowl? And your score displayed in the 6th frame is 74, his is 72? Is he open in the 6th or not? More info please.

However if those are both 6th frame scores plus you've already marked the 7th, unless he is good and just donking around or you are a chokemaster I say good bet.

NT

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
I hit a spare in the top of the 7th frame and lead my friend 74-72. I offer to bet him $20. +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

I take this to mean he hasn't bowled his 7th yet. But you are on a spare so your actual 7th frame score is not known yet. Does the 74 include the 10 from the spare? If so, it's very close. Because of your scores, he is not likely to make a spare, which would put him in the lead. But even if he just gets good count, like a 9, you will need to get 7 or more on the first ball of the next frame just to stay even. I'd put it at a coin flip in this case.

[disjunction]

Assuming a frame is worth ~70/7 = 10 pins to you both, the answer is no.

You have 74 (after the spare, I assume). Your spare is worth about an extra 5 pins, then, putting you at 79. His EV after the frame is ~82.

[tolbiny]

In bowling you have to take into account what happend the previou frame- if his friend didn't spare/strike in the previous frame that drops his expected score for this one.

[disjunction]

Why? His friend started from scratch (i.e., he did not spare/strike in the 0th frame), therefore each frame is worth 10.3 pins for the friend.

The thing I worry about, kind of what you're getting at, I think, is the difference between mean with median. I would assume a (5.5/7)^3 chance that each player spares/strikes each frame, meaning a 52% chance of another spare/strike for the friend, a 38% chance for Nate tha' .

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I hit a spare in the top of the 7th frame and lead my friend 74-72. I offer to bet him $20. +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify:

- The score was 72-64, my friend leading, after the 6th frame. Both my friend and I had an open frame in the 6th. I was first to bowl in the 7th frame and made a spare.

- I am a klutz and really horrible at bowling. However, my friend is demonstrably worse, and is exactly the kind of guy who would perform worse still with money on the line. I was trying to solicit answers without providing this information as it makes the problem much closer.

[MarkL444]

i think you need at least a couple more pins here, just by guessing off the top of my head.

[siccjay]

You are in the lead and have a spare. If he opens you are up by more than 10. Definatley +EV.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
You are in the lead and have a spare. If he opens you are up by more than 10. Definatley +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because his opponent hasn't bowled his 7th frame yet.

Nate is up by two, but his opponent has a whole frame vs Nate's half frame that will be added to his spare.

But apparently there were meta-game considerations we were not told about.

[siccjay]

Ok, I read it wrong.

If his friend opens and Nate gets decent count then Nate has the lead. Being +EV is tough here. Not too sure.