Party WSOP Step 6 (final step) situation

[Tyler Durden]

It's 4 handed and we're blinding at 200/400. The step is $2000+150 but I bought in at step 2 for $55. Anyway, the winner gets the WSOP package. 2nd and 3rd get a replay. 4th goes back to Step 5. Stacks are:

utg t890
button t3068
SB (me) t880
BB t5162

UTG and button fold. I have t680 behind after posting the 200 SB so if I push it would be for 880, 480 more for the big stacked big blind.

Which hands should I push with? Which hands do I fold and wait for a better spot? BB will prob. call w/ any two right? This has to be weighed against the possibility of UTG busting soon.

My friends disagreed w/ my decision. If I fold and try to get a better hand in one of the next two deals, I have to get through more people of course.

Thanks in advance.

[gumpzilla]

You are correct that you have minimal folding equity here. There's another stack with just over 2 BBs that's about to go through both blinds. For these reasons, I'm tightening up hard here. I'll push my chips in with TT+ and probably AQ, AK.

EDIT: Thinking about it more, I'd probably be more inclined to go with guidelines for how often I was beating a random hand. 65% I'd definitely have to take - so this means 88, 99 as well, and probably a couple more A's and maybe KQ (I don't have all of these numbers in my head, so I'm guessing) - but a lot depends on how savvy I think the other shortstack is.

[willie]

insta edit

i withdraw my horrible answer based on poor blind management against a shortstack.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct that you have minimal folding equity here. There's another stack with just over 2 BBs that's about to go through both blinds. For these reasons, I'm tightening up hard here. I'll push my chips in with TT+ and probably AQ, AK.

EDIT: Thinking about it more, I'd probably be more inclined to go with guidelines for how often I was beating a random hand. 65% I'd definitely have to take - so this means 88, 99 as well, and probably a couple more A's and maybe KQ (I don't have all of these numbers in my head, so I'm guessing) - but a lot depends on how savvy I think the other shortstack is.

[/ QUOTE ]


My instincts tell me that this range is way too tight.

[curtains]

Unbelievable, by the time I posted your post had changed to include more hands!

[curtains]

By the way, everyone realize that we are playing for a 1000 dollar difference by folding here, meanwhile first place is 10k. I think the SB should be a lot looser than everyone is saying.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way, everyone realize that we are playing for a 1000 dollar difference by folding here, meanwhile first place is 10k. I think the SB should be a lot looser than everyone is saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't the payout essentially:

1) $13,500
2) $2,150
3) $2,150
4) $1,080

I think you gotta be quite loose here....

Yugoslav

[curtains]

This is especially true since even if we fold we arent guaranteed to come in 3rd or better. We are likely to, but itll be very annoying if the shortstack decides to try to out survive you and folds through his blinds.

It seems ridiculous to go out of your way to grovel for 1000 bucks when you really aren't out of the running for first place. I haven't done any math unfortunately, but I suspect it's not correct to be ultra tight here.

[gumpzilla]

This is a good point, I missed that 4th gets a Step 5 replay.

I'm assuming that you're going to get called. How often do you need to beat a random hand before you're pushing? I think you're going to win $2000 by folding very often; how much do you gain when you push and win? I think at that point you'll have maybe a 20% chance of first (do you think I'm lowballing this?), 80% chance of the other prize. So this suggests that you're looking at about $3600 when you push and win, $1000 when you push and lose. Given these numbers, it seems like you should push with just about anything, as you don't have to win all that often to show profit. But that really surprises me.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
it seems like you should push with just about anything, as you don't have to win all that often to show profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much.

[ QUOTE ]

But that really surprises me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It shouldn't. The payout structure is *very* top heavy. The blinds are now so big that any push from any position is most likely profitable...

I have no feel for exactly what should be pushed here...but I'd say you should push all but the very worse hands (and by this I mean like a handful of the ones that run absolutely worst hot/cold vs. a random hand)...you basically want to be live here when called. For instance, if your hand is suited that is most likely enough to make it worth pushing (yes, *any* soooted crds). Frankly, pushing any two here is most likely significantly better than what I'd imagine most STT players would push.

Also, while it pains me to say it, there is *some* FE involved here but it's very, very low.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

Pretty wide. Aces, half decent kings and queens, maybe all queens, medium suited connectors any pair. Basically if you can beat a random hand, maybe a little better.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty wide. Aces, half decent kings and queens, maybe all queens, medium suited connectors any pair. Basically if you can beat a random hand, maybe a little better.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is too tight I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Yugoslav

[Tilt]

So you basically have three hands to choose from...so with three hands to go, I think its pretty simple. Push the top 33% of hands the first hand you are dealt, top 50% in the second. Eastbay has done rankings that are helpful...but I think on the first hand thats pretty much any A or K, any SC, any offsuit one gapper or connector thats ten high or better. Or your favorite lucky trash hand at this point.

[Paul2432]

From a chipEV standpoint you need to win the hand 680/1760 = 38.64% of the time to show a chip profit. Because you do not get full value on your chips due to percentage payback, you need to win slightly more often to show a money profit.

I would say push any hand that has 40-45% chip equity versus a random hand.

Paul

[Tyler Durden]

Thanks all for the replies. I had Q3 and after thinking for a long long while I decided to move in. The BB called w/ 66 and I was out in 4th. Back to Step 5.

I think I made the right play but I can be convinced otherwise.

How often will Q3 be best against one random hand? Anyone know how to figure that out?

thanks much

[ace_in_the_hole]

Heads up: 0.4821944
but as far as 4 handed, don't know. GL btw in your steps quest.

[lastchance]

Q3 is an easy push.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Q3 is an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugoslav