Please Help

[Drontier]

From December to March, I played about 170 sngs of 20+2, and had an ROI of approximately 36%. I stopped for about a month and picked back up at the end of March, which from then til now I've played about 150 sngs of 20+2. At first I thought I was good enough, so I multitabled, but after I was down about 250ish, I went back to just single tabling them. Somehow, I've continued to drop my money, and I've tried switching things around including playing 100NL 50NL 1/2 NL 2/4NL, and 20+2s. Somehow I managed to get myself to about -450. This is a pretty big hit to my bankroll, so I decided to slowly build, back to basics with the 25NL and now I'm at -600. I want to complain about all the millions of bad beats I've taken. I honestly have not taken runner runner bad beats over and over until now. In 50 NL I got badbeat about 300 dollars worth of pots, just because of QQ. I understand I really have not played that much compared to everyone else to get my TRUE ROI, but I do feel pretty confident in my play(not in the 20sngs anymore, i dont know why). Can people tell me if variance does go this far, or I am just that bad. I'd hate to keep playing to drop money in long run. I believe myself to be a decently good NL player(but who doesn't :P). Tips? Advice from others who have encountered similar events or know if my 600 loss recently is truly from variance. Thanks.

[gumpzilla]

It sounds like a lot of your losses came in the ring. It's possible that even if you're a winning SNG player you're not so hot in the ring; in fact, if SNGs are where you've learned to play NL, I'd guess you're probably not going to be a good ring game player when you start.

Numerous winning players have experienced >25 buy-in swings just at SNGs. I don't really play enough volume to have high confidence in my ROI, but I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player at low-level SNGs, and I went through a 20 game OTM streak at Paradise. I don't know how much is that one's perception of these things is heightened when losing, but it seemed I was losing just about every bubble coinflip, regardless of which side I was on. These things happen.

If you really think you're a winning player - that is, if you think you have a good understanding of the analysis of SNG situations - then keep plugging away. Drop down to the 10s and gain psychological currency by pounding on those for a while. Come back when you've built your roll back up and feel ready.

[Blarg]

You haven't lost that much for the levels of the games you are talking about, yet you say you have. Your first note is that you were down $250 in the $20+2's. That's just a dozen games. So what? That and your further details on how much you are down signals to me that you are playing higher than your real and/or psychological bankroll.

Your jumping around into all kinds of different games also strikes me as either some kind of denial mode or panic mode, too. It's one thing to jump around in games for variety when you're really good at all of them and are doing it just for fun or to pursue the best game open at the time, or when they're at such a super tiny level that it doesn't matter whether you win or lose. But it's not a good way to "chase the magic" if the magic isn't coming through for you where you're at. It's much better to buckle down and try to find your leaks, to post hands on the boards, to study your game and think about it. Or even to take time off -- which you said you did before -- and either just get away from playing and thinking about poker entirely, or study up on your 2+2 etc. like hell, but not play it for a while.

It sounds like you're compounding your losses psychologically. Keep the bad beats confined to poker, not your psychology. And then concentrate on your poker.

And play it within both your financial and psychological bankroll.

Perhaps the first concrete steps you can take is to start posting hands for analysis here, and try to analyze the hands of others. The power of a community to reinforce both your learning and your morale is very strong, and you're right in the middle of a free one this very minute. Don't waste it.

[Degen]

cry me a river

this belongs in the Bad Beat Stories Forum

Andre

[tjh]

Somehow.. approximatly... yor post is filled with uncertainty.

Tighten up your record keeping. keep a diary a notebook an account ledger, read books, post hands, get yourself together man !!

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

For the last month I know exactly what my return is on UB, on PP on PS in SNG in ring.

When I lose I look and see what I may have done wrong. Sure sometimes things just do not work out but I am always able to strive to improve my play.

Get yourself together. Focus on what you think is your strong point. For me it is UB SNG's for you .. I dunno. SNG's looked good as long as your recollection of success is genuine and as long as you have not changed sites. Various sites do play differently.

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tjh