Muck AKo in sb after one PF raise?

[QTip]

I've got AKo in the sb. I have 300 hands on a fish that's UTG+1. He raises PF and gets 1 cold caller to me.

His stas are 35/ 0.69 /.66

Anyone else feel like mucking here?

[Chris Dow]

Are you kidding? Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[QTip]

No. I'm not kidding. I mucked PF. Small pot. And this guy most likely has AA or KK. I'm not interested.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and please don't start this crap. If it was a joke, my meter's off this afternoon.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go away, stupid troll.

[QTip]

Chesspain:

Chris, unlike other flat out trolls, has shown his ability to think logically in this game. If he just lost the edge that's in his tone, he would have more respect as a poster.

I thought this was a pretty clear fold, but posted it for confirmation and to highlight for newbies the fact that starters do not have a self-weighting strategy. Whereas someone may look at a chart and see AKo in the sb against a raise and pop it because they're told to.

[imported_stealthcow]

i call.

with the cold caller you have odds to try and spike that A if he has KK and you can be cautious if you hit a K.

also, the fact that he's pfr'd 2x in 300 hands doens't mean he's only doing it with AA and KK. its easy to add in QQ and have him been having a bad run of cards.

stealthcow-

[Entity]

QTip,

I'd call. 300 hands isn't enough to judge when it's very possible that he's raising with AA-QQ, or even AA-JJ preflop. With the coldcaller in between you've got too much equity to fold, I think.

Rob

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
with the cold caller you have odds to try and spike that A if he has KK and you can be cautious if you hit a K.

also, the fact that he's pfr'd 2x in 300 hands doens't mean he's only doing it with AA and KK. its easy to add in QQ and have him been having a bad run of cards.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good points, and 300 hands is a small sample. Conversely, there's also the chance that he has gotten AA twice and that's all he raises with..he plays like a scared mouse and now he's annoucing from EP that he wants to go to war. I'm out of position the whole hand, and I will pay all he way if I catch an A or K because I pay off like a mo fo.

[imported_stealthcow]

yea, and i also think his really high vpip lends more to your argument. it's hard to imagine him having being hit that cold a deck if he's playing over 30% of his hands.


if party didn't support mult. tables now would be the time to go in and check to see if he does indeed limp with QQ.

good job making a laydown i couldn't /images/graemlins/smile.gif

stealthcow-

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
QTip,

I'd call. 300 hands isn't enough to judge when it's very possible that he's raising with AA-QQ, or even AA-JJ preflop. With the coldcaller in between you've got too much equity to fold, I think.



[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
i call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ick.

Seriously, people, calling with AK in the blinds is awful. If you can't raise it, fold it.

I reraise, BTW, especially against someone this passive postflop. I won't get on you too much for folding it, but there are all sorts of reasons his PFR could be that low that don't mean he has AA-KK.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]


Seriously, people, calling with AK in the blinds is awful. If you can't raise it, fold it.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is terrible. You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand given his limited preflop hand range. It's ok to coldcall with AK, especially in this situation.

I really don't get what this whole 2+2 obsession with "raise or fold" all the time is.

Rob

[QTip]

Thanks for the thoughts gents.

I guess 300 hands just isn't enough. It's funny too because a lot of times people post stat reads here after 100 hands, 50 hands, 20 and even less.

Look at this hand and then his stats. btw...cold caller is co and complete donk.

The BB called the extra as well.

Flop: J53 rainbow

BB checks UTG+1 bets, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: T

UTG+1 bets, CO calls

River: 7

UTG+1 bets, CO calls

By the turn lead, I'm thinking I made a great fold because this passive guy's got cowboys or rockets.

He flips AKo and CO wins with 22.

Something to note about insufficient sample sizes.

[QTip]

The only way I was playing that hand was "cold-calling" - not so technically since I'm sb. No way I 3 bet that. If I called, I would have checked without catching A or K and then folded to a flop bet.

I was thinking at the time what I would do if I did call and caught an A or K on the flop, and I wasn't real sure what I would do. This lack of a postflop plan added weight to my decision to fold.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go away, stupid troll.

[/ QUOTE ]



he's not a troll

[sthief09]

I think folding is fine. you have like no implied odds off him and you're almost always dominated. 300 hands is plenty

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]


what value? don't just throw around terms

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a person who has raised less than 1% of their hands over the last 300 hands?

Rob

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
QTip,

I'd call. 300 hands isn't enough to judge when it's very possible that he's raising with AA-QQ, or even AA-JJ preflop. With the coldcaller in between you've got too much equity to fold, I think.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]


we could do some binomial distribution stuff to figure out the chances that his true PFR is .45 (AA), .9 (AA/KK), 1.3 (AA-QQ), or 2.6 (AA-QQ, AK). I have a feeling that it's damn likely he's only raising AA and KK

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling that it's damn likely he's only raising AA and KK

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt the same way. I was shocked when I saw AKo. Not only that, but he bet it all the way UI even on the river. This shocked me as well because of this AF.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
He flips AKo and CO wins with 22.

Something to note about insufficient sample sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

All the same, I'm not sure how comforting it is to add AK to his range, when that's all you have as well.

I can't really fault you for folding.

I did once sit at a table at a B&M game where preflop raises were so infrequent that at one point when I was away from the table I told a friend that I was folding anything except AA if someone did raise in front of me preflop.

I don't think I actually would have folded, say, QQ to a raise, but I never got the opportunity to, either.

Then, later, after there was some turnover at the table, things got LAGgier, and people were raising things like KJo UTG.

[chief444]

Chesspain,

Just to chime in with Qtip and stheif, Chris I think (despite what some think due to the tone of some posts) really has a lot to add to the forum. It's obvious he has a lot of experience and he plays well. I for one would be disappointed if he stopped posting.

I wish Kailia Marie would post more as well but we can't expect every newer poster to come across as nice and humble as Kailia does.

Chief

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]


what value? don't just throw around terms

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting tired of rolling my eyes at people in this forum today. If you're putting villain on AA or KK, you have a clear fold. If you put him on a bigger range of hands, you have a clear value raise with the coldcaller around. There's no middle ground here, because AK is never just a little bit behind.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling that it's damn likely he's only raising AA and KK

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt the same way. I was shocked when I saw AKo. Not only that, but he bet it all the way UI even on the river. This shocked me as well because of this AF.

[/ QUOTE ]


players that raise infrequently tend to overplay those hands. it's like "I have AK dammit. it's not supposed to lose." that's actually how I'd expect him to play AK. he probably punched his screen when he lost

[QTip]

As I mentioned earlier. One of the reasons I decided to fold was because of the lack of a postflop plan.

As stated, if I called and didn't hit the flop, I was c/fing.

If I caught an A or K (I'm not real sure it matters as far as the plan, but I certainly wouldn't like the K as much), much thoughts were that I would have wanted a bet to go in on each street. This would have been a lot easier if I had position.

However, I was thinking that if I hit an Ace or King, I would have checked the flop (I don't think I would have folded to a flop raise).

If he checks, I bet the turn.

If he bets, I call. Check/Call the turn UI and bet the river. I don't think I'd be raised on the river with his stats. If I was, it probably would be an easy fold that I wouldn't make.

Anyone else have a better plan?

[chief444]

I think the fold is fine. Actually I think it's best. You're basically hoping you're 50/50 to start with and playing OOP for the hand. 300 hands isn't that much but someone who raised two times in 300 hands probably isn't raising less than AK here and maybe not even that.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]


what value? don't just throw around terms

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting tired of rolling my eyes at people in this forum today. If you're putting villain on AA or KK, you have a clear fold. If you put him on a bigger range of hands, you have a clear value raise with the coldcaller around. There's no middle ground here, because AK is never just a little bit behind.

[/ QUOTE ]


rolling your eyes? you have no clue what you're talking about. you're just throwing around terms like "raise for value" and "raise or fold." how can you raise AK for value against a range of hands that includes at most AA-QQ and AK? give the limper 32o and you still can't raise for value.

so the next time you feel the need to roll your eyes at someone, make sure you have a clue first

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
players that raise infrequently tend to overplay those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

That really makes a lot of sense. Hadn't thought of it that way.

[sthief09]

the fact that you can't continue in most cases is probably the strongest reason to fold. even if he does have QQ or JJ, you'll only flop a pair 1/3 of the time

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]


what value? don't just throw around terms

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting tired of rolling my eyes at people in this forum today. If you're putting villain on AA or KK, you have a clear fold. If you put him on a bigger range of hands, you have a clear value raise with the coldcaller around. There's no middle ground here, because AK is never just a little bit behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has QQ-AA and AK and you have the donk trapped in-between, you have enough odds to call, but not equity to 3-bet. You're getting less than 33% equity based on showdown equity alone, and you aren't getting to a showdown the majority of the time.

Rob

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact that you can't continue in most cases is probably the strongest reason to fold. even if he does have QQ or JJ, you'll only flop a pair 1/3 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

And no one yet has even mentioned that possbility that the coldcaller may have at least one of our outs.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the fact that you can't continue in most cases is probably the strongest reason to fold. even if he does have QQ or JJ, you'll only flop a pair 1/3 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

And no one yet has even mentioned that possbility that the coldcaller may have at least one of our outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't mentioned it because I hadn't thought of it. Nice thought. Although CO donk was about 95% VPIP..however against a normal player, that would have to be a serious consideration.

[KDawgCometh]

I like all of the reasoning for everything you've done PF and now coming up witha rough Post flop plan. SInce you didn't have a postflop plan at the time, I can't fault you at all folr dumping AK there. Props to you as I don't hink I'd be able to. As far as your post flop plan, a wa/wb line works very well as you wouldn't want to be spewing chips drawing dead or near dead just because you hit TPTK.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a person who has raised less than 1% of their hands over the last 300 hands?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

If you guys can't see the gigantic false assuption you're making here, I'm not sure I can help you.

[QTip]

wa/wb - not familiar with this acronym

[istewart]

Way ahead/way behind.

[Chris Dow]

Of course, when you flop one of these decreased outs, the cold caller is just giving you extra value, so it is at least a partial trade-off.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You aren't 3-betting for folding equity later in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I'm three-betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a person who has raised less than 1% of their hands over the last 300 hands?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

If you guys can't see the gigantic false assuption you're making here, I'm not sure I can help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you mind sharing with the class, or do you prefer sounding like an arrogant dumbass?

[MKR]

[ QUOTE ]
wa/wb - not familiar with this acronym

[/ QUOTE ]

Way ahead / way behind ?

MKR

[QTip]

Thanks (and to you too MKR)

[27offsooot]

I call. Folding isn't horrible, 3-betting is.