Value Bet? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Spartan1983

05-01-2005, 10:31 AM

Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

95Aero

05-01-2005, 10:36 AM

I would probably check the river, river could be exactly what one of them has been waiting for completing flush draws and a couple of straight draws.

(At the same time I'd be very tempted to bet for value with the high set =)

chief444

05-01-2005, 10:42 AM

Bet/call.

Chris Daddy Cool

05-01-2005, 10:45 AM

for the love of all mothers, bet.

PokerBob

05-01-2005, 12:17 PM

The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".

thejameser

05-01-2005, 12:27 PM

no read on utg?

Chris Dow

05-01-2005, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap. Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

cassady

05-01-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'll say out the outset I think not value betting when scare cards hit may be a consistent leak in my game. In two hours of play last night, in three or four instances I checked the river against one or two opponents, it was checked behind, and I took the pot down. If half of those people would have called, that's a big bet an hour leak. So I'm re-evaluating this a lot right now........

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? Probably something like a J-10 that went inproved to two pair on the river. Maybe an AJ if it was a passive player. But a set would have fought on the turn and the river given the draws that are out there.

I think the odds of being called and winning are less than 50%. I think even faced with a raise I'd pay to see the cards when holding top set. So the times we're unsuccessful will cost us two bets. For me, this is a check-call situation.

Now, re-evaluating my value betting, I'm totally open to flaws in this analysis.

EDIT: just woke up......didn't notice the player was closing the action. This makes it closer to a bet. But I'm still not sure who would call without having us beat.

Chief911

05-01-2005, 01:48 PM

This seems like a pretty easy check behind. Two significant draws came in on the river. You'll hate to call a check raise wont you?

Nick

PokerBob

05-01-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close.

Chris Dow

05-01-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerBob nailed it, although *we* don't see what an opponent can call with here and lose, they are infinitely more creative than us. Value bet here, call raise, not close.

New001

05-01-2005, 02:51 PM

Remember you're playing poker online. You'll get called by almost any piece of this board and most pocket pairs by some people.

I just saw this hand as I was reading this:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
7 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Button calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Button raises, BB calls.

River: (7.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Button bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 3s 7s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Button has Td Tc (full house, tens full of sixes).
Outcome: Button wins 9.16 BB. 

Definitely bet this and call a raise.

clownshoes

05-01-2005, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap. Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop acting like a huge [censored] bigshot. As if its completely beneath you to explain why this is a clear bet. Its ridiculously arrogant and completely useless to the forums. Not to mention it annoys the hell out of a lot of people.

But yes this is a very clear bet. These people will call down with any piece of the board.

cassady

05-01-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerBob nailed it, although *we* don't see what an opponent can call with here and lose, they are infinitely more creative than us. Value bet here, call raise, not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's change it aroud a bit. Say you were out of position, and were leading the betting instead of being checked to then called. Would you still lead out on the river?

brettbrettr

05-01-2005, 05:59 PM

yes.

Yobz

05-01-2005, 06:05 PM

Easy value bet, call a raise but not a 3-bet..

27offsooot

05-01-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap. Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]


Holy crap. You're a prick. Do you see why? I don't have to let others elaborate.

Spartan1983

05-01-2005, 09:06 PM

Thanks for the replies everyone. Hero did bet and took down the pot.

River: (10.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

purnell

05-01-2005, 09:13 PM

It's not close. Bet this river. Some of you guys are weenies.

imported_leader

05-01-2005, 09:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap. Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just once why don't you elaborate?