87s -- quick flop question

[Nick C]

Preflop is debatable, probably, but I'm not so interested in that. What I'm wondering is what my best play on the flop is.

I have PT reads, and, boy, they're deceptive.

Anyway, UTG+2 is 56/6/1 after 152 hands, and you might not think he'd habitually bet when checked to with those numbers, but in fact he did bet when checked to with regularity. About 100 hands after the posted one, I successfully called him down with an unimproved 55, after the two players between him and me folded to his flop bet, with overcards all over the place (an ace, king, and queen were all on the board by the turn, while I stubbornly kept calling). He had J9o, for no pair and no draw on the flop.

SB is 54/6/0.6 after 237 hands and erratic. You wouldn't think that, with those numbers, she would cap the flop heads-up against me with second pair, despite my preflop raise and flop aggression, but she did, and you wouldn't think she'd raise KTo UTG, but she did that also.

BB is 23/7/1.2 after 219 hands, and I don't have anything anecdotal to add for him.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets . . .</font>

Okay, it's my action. Raise or call, and why? (I don't know the answer.)

[toss]

I'd raise this as I don't want any villains drawing cheaply with the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Then again the pot isn't that big yet. I still think its a raise.

[Spartan1983]

Preflop #$%^#%^. Flop, I raise.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise this as I don't want any villains drawing cheaply with the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Then again the pot isn't that big yet. I still think its a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'ld also really like to get the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif to fold.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

R
A
I
S
E

[LImitPlayer]

Raise the flop, you want a higher diamond to fold.

Anyone with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif isn't folding and you want to charge them as much as possible to see the river

[Nick C]

I don't rely on PokerTracker as much as some of you who are on eight tables at once, and I really was amazed when I looked up SB's stats while putting together this post and saw that her aggression factor was 0.6 for the hands I have with her.

I mean, does this look like 0.6? (She's the Button in this hand.):

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB

Results:
Hero has Jc As (two pair, jacks and fives).
Button has Ad Tc (two pair, tens and fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.16 BB.

I think she might have been gunning for me personally for some reason (what she did during some other hands was cold-call me preflop, call the flop, and then pop me on the turn), but still, I am starting to think there are more limitations to the conclusions that we draw from PT stats than we sometimes admit.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
R
A
I
S
E

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's what I did, for the reasons Chesspain, Toss, Spartan1983, and LImitPlayer have mentioned.

I was hoping someone (UTG+2, for instance) had top pair or something unthreatening like that and would play back at me with it. But what happened instead was that everyone folded to my raise, and I took the pot immediately.

All the same, I do think raising is best. And if by some chance someone folded the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I can't complain about that.

[CallMeIshmael]

There is a huge correlation between VPIP and perceived aggression.

56/0.6 is A LOT more aggressive than 22/0.6.

FWIW... This has been discussed recently, and I did some research one day, and, basically, yes its true. There is a correlation between VPIP and aggression. But, the entire picture isnt painted until you factor in WTSD%.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a huge correlation between VPIP and perceived aggression.

56/0.6 is A LOT more aggressive than 22/0.6.

FWIW... This has been discussed recently, and I did some research one day, and, basically, yes its true. There is a correlation between VPIP and aggression. But, the entire picture isnt painted until you factor in WTSD%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew that 56/0.6 was more aggressive than 22/0.6, because logically it seems like it should be, unless the player in question was entirely disregarding how well his cards hit the flop. I didn't know it was A LOT more aggressive, though.

In any event, now I'm curious. SB in the posted hand is 54/6/0.6, with a WTSD% of 45 (for 237 hands, anyway). Once we factor in the WTSD%, what kind of picture do those numbers paint?

She certainly wasn't shy about raising me on the turn. Annoyingly, when she did it, I usually could contribute nothing except ace-high or king-high to the pair on the board.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
In any event, now I'm curious. SB in the posted hand is 54/6/0.6, with a WTSD% of 45 (for 237 hands, anyway). Once we factor in the WTSD%, what kind of picture do those numbers paint?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive been trying to find a way to normalize postflop aggression to one specific VPIP/WTSD combination (ie. one that we play), but so far it has been very hard to do.


The argument for VPIP/postflop aggression correlation: players with high VPIP have more marginal situations on the flop. Therefore, they should be less aggressive. Thus, a player with 56/x/2.0 is VERY aggressive, because he raises/bets almost as frequently as we do, but he, on average, has weaker hands

Arugment against it: postflop aggression is a ratio (bets/raises:calls), and thus, even with a high VPIP, we know nothing of how much calling they do. Thus its possible for the above conclusion to be incorrect...

IE:

You have a VPIP of 70%. You only raise with TPGK or better. Well... with a VPIP of 70, you wont be doing a lot of raising... BUT... what if this player also doesnt call a lot??? IE. they play fit or fold poker? Well, they wont be calling a lot either, because most weak hands dont fit a lot of flop. Thus, their aggression numbers will be closer to ours than someone who calls too much on the flop.

Thus... the first piece of info you need is their 'Flop continuing %"... ie. on what percentage of flops do these players VPIP to see the turn?

Because, this % = bets + calls + raises, and thus gives a better idea of their relative postflop aggression.

I did some math, and came up with these flop,turn,river continuing estimations (nb: these are for high VPIP players, and would be off for someone with a VPIP in the twoplustwo range):

FC: -18.54Vpip + 28.29vpip^2 - 14.18vpip^3 -8.29wtsd + 21.53wtsd^2 - 17.00wtsd^3 + 5.66

TC: 2.56Vpip - 2.51vpip^2 + 0.59vpip^3 + 6.43wtsd - 12.93wtsd^2 + 9.14wtsd^3 - 1.14

RC: 20.78Vpip - 32.66vpip^2 + 16.88vpip^3 + 12.52wtsd - 30.66wtsd^2 + 25.08wtsd^3 - 5.21

But...the conclusions Ive come up with so far seem suspect to the point that Im not about to post them. So, I cant really say with any confidence that the player in this hand would have a post flop aggression of about X if she played a 20% VPIP game

But... I would also encourage anyone reading to use the above equations to find a way to work on the problem on their own, as I've given up at this point.