Folding QQ on a Unders flop [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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imported_leader

05-01-2005, 03:02 AM

Not a ton on the reads here.
Button has played 2 of the 20 hands I've played with him. Raised neither of them.
MP1 seems pretty fishy he has found 10 of 14 hands that he likes.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises, Button 3-bets, Hero...

MP1 could be donking around with anything much means he could conceivably have me beat. He could also have something like 99 or 88. Button is more of a problem. His range of PF 3-betting hands doesn't look to be particularly large. I don't think he's 3-betting me on the flop after I capped preflop and it comes two to him on the flop with say AK. He could conceivably play JJ this way, but even that is questionable. So what should I do here? It is early in the hand. Should I just cut my losses here? If not, what is my plan going forward.

toss

05-01-2005, 03:10 AM

I would cap, lead the turn, and fold to further aggression UI.

Is this too aggro?

Nick C

05-01-2005, 03:16 AM

There's a good chance you're behind, but I think the pot is too big, and your hand is too good, for you to fold yet. (Plus, you could improve.)

I'd probably call and see what MP1 wants to do. If he caps, that unfortuantely means he probably has something better than, say A7. Also, if he caps, the action could get heavy enough that I'd start thinking about folding later in the hand, especially if an overcard fell.

For the time being, though, I'd be planning to go to showdown. And, actually, I think capping the flop is something to consider.

wrto4556

05-01-2005, 03:19 AM

I like calling to see what MP1 does.

imported_leader

05-01-2005, 03:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling to see what MP1 does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say he caps and the turn is a blank (i.e. non A-J).

Nick C

05-01-2005, 03:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like calling to see what MP1 does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say he caps and the turn is a blank (i.e. non A-J).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't actually expect him to cap. But if he does, then I'd check a turn blank, and if it came back two to me, I'd think about folding.

If MP1 bet and Button just called, then I'd proceed with my plan of going to showdown, though I'd also be expecting to lose at this point, to MP1's set if not Button's better overpair.

ArturiusX

05-01-2005, 03:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling to see what MP1 does.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think thats better then raising and possibly folding mp1? It'd be great to push AK out here.

Jules22

05-01-2005, 03:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling to see what MP1 does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick C

05-01-2005, 03:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like calling to see what MP1 does.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think thats better then raising and possibly folding mp1? It'd be great to push AK out here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't mind folding out MP1 at all, if possible.

I doubt he has AK, though (and if by some chance that's what he does have, I'm not sure he's folding it).

In any event, I do think a flop cap is something to consider.

imported_leader

05-01-2005, 03:24 PM

First results: I folded MP1 capped. The turn and river went bet-call. MP1 showed 77. SB had KK. The Turn was a Q too.

Of our options on the flop, the only one I think doesn't work is capping. If we cap here a loose MP1 is likely to call with many hands, and of course, SB is calling. Logically after a cap you would lead the turn. The problem with this is that you can't fold to a raise because you'll be getting between 19-1 and 21-1 on your two outer. Then on the river, you can't fold to one bet in a 24 BB pot unless the river is an A or a K. Thus, you are investing 4.5 BB to get to showdown on a hand that is often beaten on the flop given the reads and action.
While I no longer think folding is the best option, but I think ruling it out entirely would be a mistake. At this point, you will have to invest a minimum of 3 BB to get to showdown. In addition, it is possible that you are throwing money away because you could be raised out on the turn anyway.
Of the options we have, I think calling is the best. If we call, MP1 caps, and the turn goes check-bet-call, I think we can fold. At this point, I think there is almost no chance we have the best hand because MP1 would have to have exactly TT-88 AND SB would have to have JJ. If SB were to fold to MP1 bet on the turn, I think a call down would be profitable. If MP1 doesn’t cap the flop, calling down is here would also work.

einbert

05-01-2005, 03:25 PM

Pot's huge, there is a decent chance you have the best hand.