ATs with a flush turn - I screwed it up

[JustToast]

Live B&M 3/6

I am dealt AsTs UTG, I raise (loose passive table). 7 to the flop.

Flop is 9d Tc 3c, I bet out and all call.

Turn comes 9c... Bet from a maniac on my right in the blinds .

Here's where I screwed it up I think. I raised this to see if someone had it yet and try to represent a stronger hand. Folded to MP3 who calls, maniac re-raises and I fold figuring I had no draws against a flush hand. Truth be told, I did not read the board properly (a fatal mistake) and did not notice that the 9's paired. Still, even with a full house draw for potentially 4 outs, i'm not sure how I should have played this turn - probably call instead of raise since the pot is quite large.

I'll post results later, but i'm sure you can guess what happened. I'm just upset with myself for not knowing how to handle this. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Nick C]

The maniac's turn bet does put you in an awkward spot, since any of the four or five people behind you could have just made a flush or trips (and we also can't rule out the possibility that the maniac did).

The maniac's bet does also give you the opportunity to raise and try to drive out kings, queens, jacks, and gutshots, though, which is something you'd like to do if you're currently best. I like the turn raise.

I don't think you should have folded to the maniac's 3-bet, though. And since he's a maniac and could just have, say, the naked A /images/graemlins/club.gif or 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif, I probably would go ahead and call again on the river unimproved, though I wouldn't really expect to win without improving. (The turn 3-bet does represent a lot of strength.)

[JustToast]

Actually what concerned me was a SLA-P player calling in MP (he never got out of line), so I put the maniac on a possible flush, and the MP guy on a small made flush (since he had watched the maniac be a maniac he was trying to get a showdown).

If I felt there was a made flush due to the 3-bet and Passive caller, and had 4 outs to a full house, those being 2x9 and 2x10. Counting pot odds at the turn:

14 sb preflop
+7 sb at the flop
=10.5bb
Implied odds after the 3-bet on the turn puts 9 big bets in, and I can assume at least another 3 at the river.

This should give me 19.5 to 1 as an 11:1 dog to hit my boat (though I didnt see the board paired -- dumb), clearly should have called at that point.

Turns out the maniac had trip 9's, the MP had a small flush, and the 10 hit the river which, after my stupid fold, lost me a huge pot. Bah. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Any other interpretations of how to play the turn?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Turns out the maniac had trip 9's, the MP had a small flush, and the 10 hit the river which, after my stupid fold, lost me a huge pot. Bah. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think you should have called the turn 3-bet, you did in fact only have 2 outs, given what your opponents held.

It's the possibility that you have a full four outs, in addition to the possibility that you're actually ahead, that makes me think you should call. (I agree that MP's turn cold-call is a concern, but he could be drawing still, and who knows what the maniac has?)

But against your opponents' actual holdings, your turn fold was all right.