My Name Is Jazza, And I'm A Min-Raiser

[Jazza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 ($111.65)
MP2 ($73)
MP3 ($156)
CO ($73.15)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($97.5)</font>
SB ($107.15)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($116.5)</font>
UTG ($110.8)
UTG+1 ($25.1)
UTG+2 ($227.2)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $5, UTG+1 calls $5, MP1 calls $5, MP3 calls $5.

Flop: ($30.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $10, MP3 folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($60.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15</font>, MP1 calls $15, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, BB calls $15, MP1 folds.

River: ($135.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $135.50

i thought had i raised the flop they both can drop a J but obviously won't drop a 6

same thought process on the turn, but i thought he might call a min-raise with a J, and if he re-raises i can fold which is cheaper than calling a bigger river bet if he has a 6

what do you guys think?

[theredpill5]

You know about probability, right ? You know what my reaction is when I raise 6x blind and get called by 4 other people ? HOLY #$#$@ !!! That is my reaction. Proceed with caution.

BB likes this flop. My reaction. HOLY #*@@ . Call me crazy but with the action you got on that flop, I would have folded and looked for a better spot/flop. BB likes it, MP1 likes it. You had 4 other people seeing the flop. Too good of a chance that someone has the 6 . I think in this situation you either lose money or break even over the long run. You want 2 people at most seeing the flop. Your raise was fine and I'm surprised you got that much action. Just look for a better spot.

[theredpill5]

An alternative would be to raise the flop to $25 or $30 then see their reaction and maybe check/fold it down. I don't know. That is hard and I think it is best to fold to so much action on the flop.

[Jazza]

folding on the flop to a 1/3 pot bet is a little too tight for me

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
You know about probability, right ? You know what my reaction is when I raise 6x blind and get called by 4 other people ? HOLY #$#$@ !!! That is my reaction. Proceed with caution.

BB likes this flop. My reaction. HOLY #*@@ . Call me crazy but with the action you got on that flop, I would have folded and looked for a better spot/flop. BB likes it, MP1 likes it. You had 4 other people seeing the flop. Too good of a chance that someone has the 6 . I think in this situation you either lose money or break even over the long run. You want 2 people at most seeing the flop. Your raise was fine and I'm surprised you got that much action. Just look for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win.

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
folding on the flop to a 1/3 pot bet is a little too tight for me

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I feel that way too. Frequently when the flop is all rags I will try to steal the pot with a bet when I'm first to act. The first person to bet in this hand is trying that and someone likes there hand enough to call getting 4:1 odds. That doesnt mean much about his hand.

I dont know where you come up with this stuff theredpill but you are way off in your analysis.

[RED FACE]

why check the river last when you raised the turn? Your turn raise looks like you think you're in the lead and his bets were so small. Don't you put him on QQ or TT and wouldn't QQ call another small bet?

If you are trying to play for a small pot with 1 pair aren't you taking that too far in this situation?

[edge]

I'm more inclined to call the turn or make a bigger raise. If you want to get cute, call the turn and minraise the river. That probably gets the most out of a J.

[Jazza]

actually i thought villian would fold a worse hand than KK on a river bet, even a smallish one

[swolfe]

i sort of like it as a way of buying a cheap showdown (as happened), but i think it's pretty transparent. if villain had any balls he would have pushed with anything figuring your minraise meant no 6 and that you couldn't figure the same about him.

[theredpill5]

So what happened ? What were the results ?

I figured up the odds someone had a 6 to be about 20 % . Even though the pot is $30 , BB is betting 1/10th is his stack and then another guy calls. After you just reraised to $6 preflop. Unless you are playing with complete morons, this would scare me a little. And the fact that he is in the BB would scare me even more.

[theredpill5]

if anyone is interested, I have Poki-Poker pro and I put this hand in the Hand Evaluator and it said you have about a 67 % chance with 4 other players seeing the flop that you have the best hand. Then I put in the turn and the river card and assuming all 4 players saw the river, you'd have about a 54 % chance of having the best hand on the river.

[theredpill5]

I put your hand in with the showdown calculator against 4 random hands and it gave 55 % to win from the flop. Am I off-base now ?

[Jazza]

villian had AJ MHIG

swolfe you say with my min-raise my hand is transparent but how could i represent a 6 after my large preflop raise?

[DoomSlice]

If all 4 players are seeing the river and I have a 55% chance to win the pot... I'm getting a HUGE overlay on my money. You definately want to be in situations like this.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
swolfe you say with my min-raise my hand is transparent but how could i represent a 6 after my large preflop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't.