AQ between a tag and a donk

[imported_stealthcow]

alright, so i hate posts with no reads, but i had really good reads on one player and not much on the other.

ep seemed normal. only 70 hands on him, but they are 16/9, so he probably isn't tooo out of line.

lp has been 3 betting with bad hands, he was in a capped hand preflop with J8s and is a striaght up donk.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, UTG calls.

alright, so 3 betting AQ is 75/25, so i mix it up. and because its utg and not utg+2 i think just calling is fine occassionaly.

when the donk 3 bets i put him on a large range of hands, a lot of which i beat- so he doesn't worry me at all. i found his 33 bet really helpful because if utg capped it'd mean AA or KK (or QQ and AKs). if he didn't his range is QQ - TT AKs AKo AQ AJ KQ.

should i now cap if thats the range i'm up against?


Flop: (13.33 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

so, did i play the flop right? i'm worriede he's got AK or AQ with a club at absolute worst.

stealthcow-

[mute]

I'm never really sure what to do with AQ against a raiser, but since UTG looks looks like a decent player, and you have several to act behind you, I would probably fold preflop. If I was gonna play I would 3bet, because I would prefer to be headsup with position, rather than in a multiway pot.

The cap is interesting. Although you don't have a very good read on UTG, I would expect him to cap a lot of hands here to try and force you out, so it makes sense to think that maybe this isn't one of his strongest rasiing hands.

The flop is ofcourse horrible for you, but since you capped, you have to make a play here, but easy fold to the check/raise. Your overcard outs are very fragile, and you may even be drawing dead.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
but since UTG looks looks like a decent player, and you have several to act behind you, I would probably fold preflop. If I was gonna play I would 3bet,

[/ QUOTE ]

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
but since UTG looks looks like a decent player, and you have several to act behind you, I would probably fold preflop. If I was gonna play I would 3bet,

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Your position sucks, and you're probably behind range of his UTG raising hands

[ThePenguin]

Calling pre-flop is awful. I would three-bet most of the time, trying to get heads up. You're ahead of hands like KQ, A10, AJ, and can scare off another AQ hand, plus you are a coinflip against 88 - JJ. Once he caps, you figure you are in trouble. I would call his check-raise on the flop and only continue if a red A comes up.

[jediael]

I would probably muck it straight away.

UTG has a PFR of 9%, but now he raised from UTG, so he's probably raising the top 5%. Against that range playing AQ is -EV

[imported_stealthcow]

do you think that 70 hands is enough to believe he is that tight?

i thought i'd need aorund 200 with a vpip around 8 to fold this preflop.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think that 70 hands is enough to believe he is that tight?

i thought i'd need aorund 200 with a vpip around 8 to fold this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seventy hands is plenty to get a reasonable read on his preflop play...which would have caused me to dump the hand.

And of course, coldcalling was worse than either reraising or folding.

[imported_stealthcow]

[ QUOTE ]


Seventy hands is plenty to get a reasonable read on his preflop play...which would have caused me to dump the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont have the statistical data to prove you wrong, and i'm playing irght now so i can't really delve into the archives on how many hands you need for vpip and pfr to converge (although if someone did something comprehensive on this, please paste it).

however, i have over 50 hands on my current sessions on 3 tables. on them i have the following stats:

23/16
16/10
15/10

on the 4th table, which i had to switch- my numbers are 11/0 over 20 hands.

to think that i am playing sig. differently on the 23/16 table doesn't seem right, as every session i play i usually have 1 table with odd vpip/pfr values.

stelathcow-