Bet this river with ace high?

[private joker]

Villain is unknown, new to the table.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

River: (10.16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero...

When he capped PF and checked the flop, I suspected he had AK. But I couldn't decide whether or not to pull the trigger here -- if he has AK he could lay down half the pot. But he's not calling with a hand I beat and he's not folding a pair. So who bets this river?

[New001]

I've seen people play AK like this and they often call a river bet UI anyway.

[NickRegino]

i dont bet this river

[27offsooot]

Yeah bet it b/c AK is the only hand that makes sense here.

[CallMeIshmael]

His play is SOOO consistent with AK, that it appears you are on a total freeroll with a bet here.

[Piiop]

I'm pretty sure I don't like your turn bet.

[GMan42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I don't like your turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know about that...you can fold to a raise pretty easily here, and if no one has the str8 or a heart draw you have mad folding equity.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
His play is SOOO consistent with AK, that it appears you are on a total freeroll with a bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[NickRegino]

I agree with the Gman

[Piiop]

Nah, pairs are calling you down - not folding. Your folding equity is not "mad". You have A-high with a discounted gutshot and dirty outs - why bet?

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Nah, pairs are calling you down - not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. Underpairs are almost always folding this turn, with 4 to a straight out there. In fact, (to foreshadow results), MP3 bi[/i]tched in the chat box that he folded 66 on the turn.

[Piiop]

Ok, yes underpairs are folding, but not stuff like AJ/AT/K9 blah blah.

[Michael Davis]

Betting the turn and river is solid. The most debatable part of this hand is betting the flop.

-Michael

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
His play is SOOO consistent with AK, that it appears you are on a total freeroll with a bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]
He easily has 9s.

[Piiop]

Why is betting the turn solid? How often is the Hero ahead? When he's behind how many outs does he have?

I would rather bet the flop so I could check the turn.

[Willluck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His play is SOOO consistent with AK, that it appears you are on a total freeroll with a bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]
He easily has ATs or A9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Michael Davis]

"Why is betting the turn solid? How often is the Hero ahead? When he's behind how many outs does he have?

I would rather bet the flop so I could check the turn."

Basically, I disagree with the assertion that his opponents are calling down with all pairs here. I think you're folding a better hand a lot by betting. I think the river bet is necessary because it's possible your opponent has a hand like AK or KT that he'll fold on the river.

It's true that if you check the flop you often have to make a difficult decision (if a J or Q doesn't hit, because usually if this happens you fold to a bet), but it's pretty easy to dump the hand if the coldcaller comes out betting. If the original PF raiser bets and the coldcaller folds you usually have a raise if the turn was a blank, and now you've overrepresented your hand so that you might get a hand with a fair number of outs to fold.

-Michael

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river bet is necessary because it's possible your opponent has a hand like AK or KT that he'll fold on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

I really doubt that KT is folding on this river heads-up.

[Michael Davis]

"I really doubt that KT is folding on this river heads-up."

I think it's possible, but I missed the fact that he capped preflop, so he doesn't have KT, obviously. AK is such a huge part of his hand range that not betting would be a mistake. If he doesn't have AK he's got a medium set and the turn scared him.

-Michael

[Piiop]

See, I don't think many better hands are folding to this turn bet - not at 3/6. If it was headsup vs the pf capper, I would like a turn bet a lot more (and the way it went I like the river bet), but on the turn the other player is still in there. Between the two of them, I think our hero is behind with little chance of folding a better hand and I would rather take the free card.