Large multiway pot with QQ

[QBert]

This hand is from $100 NL live, $1/$2 blinds. Because it was live I don't remember all the details but the pertinent ones are here.

Hero is UTG with Qd Qh.

Preflop: Hero raises to $7. 7 players call.

Flop (Pot: $56): 8s 6s 2c
Hero bets $50. MP1 calls. All other players fold.

Turn (Pot: $156): 8d
Hero is all-in ($30). Villain calls.

River: 7h

Results are in white below.

<font color="white"> Villain wins $216 with 5s 4s, a straight, four to eight. Hero shows Qd Qh, two pairs, queens over eights. </font>

[pokernicus]

Interesting hand -- I think it's one of those somewhat rare cases where both sides played justifiably and the poker gods decided to shine their grace upon the villain. The play after the flop seems correct for both sides according to the fundamental theorem of poker (i.e., you would each play the same if you knew the other person's cards...)

Let's break this down. Pre-flop you made a "textbook" standard opening rase of 3.5BB and amazingly got seven callers which was probably not something you wanted. I think in the lower limit games, textbook raises don't work as often as we like. You have to find that magic amount (if it exists) that will reduce the field to the size you like. In this case you want maybe one or two opponents.

The villain's call with 54s might have been a little risky (but there are quite a number of circumstances when it's OK). For example, if there are many people in the pot, it's worth seeing a flop with a suited connector. Also, I find that when someone makes a textbook pre-flop raise, they tend to fall in love with their hand, and have trouble getting away from it. So, if I call with a weaker holding and hit a flop, I can win a big pot (whereas if I miss the flop, I can just fold); i.e., I have a situation where I'd either lose a small amount or win a big amount. The implied odds would then justify the call.

The flop fit well with the villain's hand: double gut-shot straight flush draw... So, he has fifteen outs to make a straight, flush, or straight flush (all of which can take down the pot -- especially if you have a holding like AA-JJ or AK which are a reasonable choice of hands to put you on from your early position pre-flop raise). He has slightly worse than a 2:1 of making it on the next card.

Your pot sized bet on the flop was justified given everyone's holdings (though I don't know if I would have done that -- with seven people in the hand, there are just too many ways I can be beat with that flop...) With seven callers, I'd have been wary of someone having a set or two pair (two pair is less likely in this case, but people often like to call pre-flop raises with baby or medium pairs hoping to spike a set -- 7.5:1 odds -- and take down a huge pot). Your opponent was getting 2:1 odds to see the next card (and even better implied odds), so his call was correct. If you knew what your opponent was holding, you could have considered a larger bet (since your opponent has about the right price to call a pot sized bet and since you're about pot committed, so you can put your opponent to a decision about whether to call), but in the absence of that info, a pot-sized bet seems reasonable.

On the turn, your push turned out to be correct because you can't give your opponents a free chance to see the river on a drawing hand. And his call on the turn is correct because he is getting the correct pot odds (better than 6:1 pot odds on a 2:1 draw).

He happened to hit the river, and that was that. :-(

The only thing one can do differently here is perhaps make a larger raise pre-flop (but this would have been more a matter of getting a feel for the table and knowing how much people will call in different situations; I also probably would have thought that a 3.5BB bet from early position would do the trick -- but obviously I would have been wrong). After the pot sized-bet gets called on a flop seen by seven people, you should be worried that you're already beat... If I were in the same situation, I would probably have (incorrectly as it turned out) given up investing a lot of money to win the pot as soon as seven people called my pre-flop raise. Ironically, my approach would have been incorrect given the holdings, but I would have wound up losing less money. Go figure!

[xorbie]

No offense, but what the hell are you talking about? Implied odds? Hero has $30 left. There are no implied odds. 2:1 on a gutshot to the ass end of a straight on a two tone board is not "good odds."

Hero didn't play this hand well either.. why leave yourself with $30? Push that flop. And don't post bad beats.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but what the hell are you talking about? Implied odds? Hero has $30 left. There are no implied odds. 2:1 on a gutshot to the ass end of a straight on a two tone board is not "good odds."

Hero didn't play this hand well either.. why leave yourself with $30? Push that flop. And don't post bad beats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post xorbie. I agree with this, especially pushing the flop.

-Trail

[TheMainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
2:1 on a gutshot to the ass end of a straight on a two tone board is not "good odds."

[/ QUOTE ]

Look closer. He actually has 15 outs against an overpair. The fact that he is drawing to the ignorant end of the straight is pretty negligible since T9 isn't exactly a likely holding for Hero's UTG raise.

[xorbie]

Touche. For some reason I thought the flop had two clubs, and didn't realize he was double gutted.

All the more reason to push the flop.

[QBert]

A $7 raise was quite small for this table, the standard seemed to settle in at about $10 or $15 if there were a few limpers already. I don't like getting pot-committed so I like to keep my PF raises manageable, especially given the blind/stack structure of this game (1/2 blinds, 100 buy-in). I didn't expect so many callers and 54s was one of the first or second to call but he is a gambler so I should have expected it. I think pushing on the flop is correct, but I also think check/folding would be correct. Missing a set with so many players is a recipe for disaster, as I really was unlikely to be holding the best hand at that point. The flop looked so ragged that I decided to make the big bet in the hopes of dragging it down. In retrospect it was all-in or fold at that point, the pot was so large. I think he would have called all-in in a flash (and been correct to do so) but it was the only play I could make other than check/folding. Here I was trying to avoid getting pot-committed and then I really had to make a decision for my stack on the flop. Ooops!

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
A $7 raise was quite small for this table, the standard seemed to settle in at about $10 or $15 if there were a few limpers already.

[/ QUOTE ]Then you lost the hand when you made a weakn raise. Why do we raise? We raise to build up a pot and also to narrow our opponents. Even a strong hand like Aces are an aggregate underdog with three callers. With seven, you're a prohibitive dog.

You should have come out with a big raise to get the riff-raff out. If 3.5BB won't do it, make it 6BB or even more.

Yeah, I know that Jacks are tough and zsomeone with a bigger hand can reraise. But if someone made a move on you, you could always lay them down if you thought you were going against a bigger pocket pair.

[CHiPS]

My first thought was check the flop and if someone moves all in and a second person calls I can easily fold. But then I got to thinking - what are the odds somebody hit two pair or trips.....
I just ran a poker simulation program on Poker Stove. I gave you the queens and I gave 7 callers a random distribution of hands. I plugged the flop in. I let it run a while on Monte Carlo and the result was you had 22% equity. I interpret equity as the fraction of the pot that you will win on average if you are all in at this point. But the problem here is I think Poker Stove is assuming all your opponents stay till the River. Surely if you push on the flop they would all fold unless they had some kind of good hand. So you have more than a 22% chance to win I think. How much more I do not know. Hmmm I will have to look around for other poker simulation programs - anyone know of any ? (I tried making the callers have pairs, connectors, high cards and the results did not change much.)
I think what I need is a program that tells me what the odds are someone hit two pair or better or a flush or straight draw on the flop.
I'm just trying to figure out whether this double date with the red ladies is going to lay me the right odds after an unimproved flop with 7 callers. Because if they aint layin - I'm not payin.

[pokernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
Touche. For some reason I thought the flop had two clubs, and didn't realize he was double gutted.

All the more reason to push the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that if you're going to bet $50 on the flop, then you're pretty pot committed, so you might as well have pushed. Nonetheless, pushing is really dangerous. You're in early position, and you've got seven people to act after you. If you get called, you're likely beat. So, you're either going to lose $80 or win the $56 in the pot if everyone folds. May not be the best bet.

Certainly, the ideal would have been betting enough pre-flop so you only have one or two callers. Once you've got so many callers, you've got to tread carefully. An overpair in this particular hand is not worth going broke over - there will be better opportunities to do that. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
A $7 raise was quite small for this table, the standard seemed to settle in at about $10 or $15 if there were a few limpers already.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the standard raise is $10-$15, then you have to conform to the table. If people regularly call bets that high, you're not going to narrow the field with an underbet (relative to that table.) Furthermore, you're under the gun. You are in the worst position on the table. You HAVE to bet more because you don't want to play out of position with a bunch of callers.

Frankly, I hate tables where people's standard opening is 8xbb or more. It means you really have to tighten up. But if they open that high, I think you have to do the same.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop you made a "textbook" standard opening rase of 3.5BB and amazingly got seven callers which was probably not something you wanted.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree this is where the hand was lost. If you are too scared of a re-raise to make a raise to limit the opposition in early position, fold. If you're gonna play Jacks and hope to win, you can't have seven people seeing the flop. Someone's gonna flop an overpair or a flush and/or straight draw. Even if you hit a set with seven callers you could be in trouble - someone could get a flush or straight.

Jacks are tricky, but they are exponentially trickier when you make them that way. If you have to raise so much that you are married to them, you have to ask yourself if it is worth it. If not, no rules against folding them.