Aces in the Big Blind

[QBert]

Hi, this is my first post on 2+2.

I was playing a live 6/12 game last Sunday and I lost a large (~$350) pot that I think I would have won had I played it differently. I'm interested in hearing what you have to say about playing AA from big blind.

I have AhAs in the big blind. 6 limpers (this game is loose). I raise. UTG makes it three bets. EVERYBODY calls. So I think about it and cap. This gives 28:1 on the flop. Flop is

Kh Qc 4h

I bet out, hoping UTG will raise me but he doesn't. Everybody calls and the button raises. I put him on the flush draw, so I just call, planning on betting the turn if the heart doesn't drop. Everyone calls.

Turn is 3c.

I bet out, I think about two players folded, everyone else called.

River is 2c.

I bet out again, thinking the deuce didn't help anyone and wanting to collect value bets from the K and Q I figured were out there. Middle position, the only other (relatively) strong player in the hand, calls and turns over 22 for the rivered set. He took down the $350 pot.

Knowing that this player is not an idiot, I thought about the hand and the odds he was getting. Over 30:1 on the flop, so it was a correct call assuming he didn't put me on KK or QQ. On the turn it was about 22:1. Again not a bad call, although his not raising on the river baffled me. He said he feared that I had a higher set but I think he just wanted callers after him.

So how could I lose aces in such a horrible manner? First of all, I misplayed the flop. I should have pushed it to three bets in order to kick players out and destroy the flush draw's implied odds. The strong player still was getting correct odds for two more bets but he would have feared a cap from the flush draw and I think he would have folded.

But going back preflop, I think it was a mistake to raise out of big blind with aces. The theory is that if I flop my set my opponents will then be getting correct odds to chase their middle pairs when they are drawing dead. However, with aces, I cannot release just because I did not flop my set. I have to hammer it hard until the board looks scary. So giving my opponents those odds to chase I think is actually a mistake. When the pot is many-handed, with large pocket pairs I think it is important to keep the pot size down until the turn when a check-raise will destroy your opponents' chasing odds. You just have to understand that many times aces will be no good by the turn and you will have to fold.

What do you think?

[shant]

I don't agree. Look what happened, you raised and UTG made it 3, which sometimes will help lose opponents. Even if they all call, you cap for value because you have the best hand.

[brettbrettr]

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I should have pushed it to three bets

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Yes.

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I think it was a mistake to raise out of big blind with aces.

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No.

One hand does not a theory make. You'd be missing out on tremendous value by playing AA passively.

[Qwijibo]

[ QUOTE ]

Kh Qc 4h

I bet out, hoping UTG will raise me but he doesn't. Everybody calls and the button raises. I put him on the flush draw, so I just call, planning on betting the turn if the heart doesn't drop. Everyone calls.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's where you could have defnitely pushed out those deuces. I might find a re-raise here, making it very difficult for all those limpers (6 of them, remember). The only dangerous player seems to be UTG (although he soon goes away, and button wakes up for some reason). You found out that you were best on the turn when he didn't raise you. You should punish the draws (probably the button) and hope to get heads-up or down to three players. Aces don't play well multi-way. This is the line I'd take.

[QBert]

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One hand does not a theory make. You'd be missing out on tremendous value by playing AA passively.

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I agree that I am making a smart move to cap preflop with aces, *providing there is no further betting in the hand*. However, since players make decisions based on the size of the pot, it is possible to manipulate their decisions by manipulating the size of the pot. Since aces do not play well multiway, I need to kick some of these players out to maximize my chance of winning a big pot. To do this I need to keep the pot size down. Let's look at some numbers.

With 7 players seeing an unraised flop, odds are 7:1, insufficient for gutshot draws and middle pairs. They can call, but they are making a mistake in doing so and ultimately paying me off. With 7 players to a raised pot (only two bets), odds are 14:1 so now gutshots and middle pairs have correct odds to call. Do you see how even one raise can make a huge difference? On a capped pot, odds are 28:1. Even with a check-raise gutshots and middle pairs can call you. Without one even two-outers have correct odds to call. So by raising preflop I was drastically reducing my ability to win the pot later on by betting players out of the pot. I'm talking about loose games here. In tight games, with 3 players to the flop, go ahead and raise.

[GrekeHaus]

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Since aces do not play well multiway

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This is false. Aces play well in any type of pot. If you have everybody at the table going to showdown with you everytime you have AA, you'll make way more money than if you are heads up.

[QBert]

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Aces play well in any type of pot. If you have everybody at the table going to showdown with you everytime you have AA, you'll make way more money than if you are heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. Multiway it is very difficult for one pair to win a pot. Therefore you are drawing to a two-outer that will frequently lose to a straight or flush anyway. Since you cannot win the hand unimproved ten ways with all players going to the river, you must hit your set (1/4.5 times) to win. This means you will, on average, win 2:1 on your money with aces multiway, provided no one beats your set. Since this will happen some of the time I would say aces only win about 15% of the time in a 10-way no fold em pot. This is marginal profit compared with smaller (3 or 4 way) action where you are more like 70% likely to win.

[Yobz]

I would have folded that hand from the BB...not even worth playing

[Chuckles1248]

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Aces play well in any type of pot. If you have everybody at the table going to showdown with you everytime you have AA, you'll make way more money than if you are heads up.

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This is not true. Multiway it is very difficult for one pair to win a pot. Therefore you are drawing to a two-outer that will frequently lose to a straight or flush anyway. Since you cannot win the hand unimproved ten ways with all players going to the river, you must hit your set (1/4.5 times) to win. This means you will, on average, win 2:1 on your money with aces multiway, provided no one beats your set. Since this will happen some of the time I would say aces only win about 15% of the time in a 10-way no fold em pot. This is marginal profit compared with smaller (3 or 4 way) action where you are more like 70% likely to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

SO WHAT?? You will win 15% of the time against 9 other people, but those 9 people each have to split up the remaining 85% of the win, so on average each of them will win less than 10% of the time. Who's making more money?? Poker is not a game about winning more pots, it's about winning more money. If you win a $10 pot 70% of the time, you're making about $7 a hand, but if you win a $100 pot 15% of the time, you're making $15 a hand, which option is better?

[GrekeHaus]

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[ QUOTE ]
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Aces play well in any type of pot. If you have everybody at the table going to showdown with you everytime you have AA, you'll make way more money than if you are heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. Multiway it is very difficult for one pair to win a pot. Therefore you are drawing to a two-outer that will frequently lose to a straight or flush anyway. Since you cannot win the hand unimproved ten ways with all players going to the river, you must hit your set (1/4.5 times) to win. This means you will, on average, win 2:1 on your money with aces multiway, provided no one beats your set. Since this will happen some of the time I would say aces only win about 15% of the time in a 10-way no fold em pot. This is marginal profit compared with smaller (3 or 4 way) action where you are more like 70% likely to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

SO WHAT?? You will win 15% of the time against 9 other people, but those 9 people each have to split up the remaining 85% of the win, so on average each of them will win less than 10% of the time. Who's making more money?? Poker is not a game about winning more pots, it's about winning more money. If you win a $10 pot 70% of the time, you're making about $7 a hand, but if you win a $100 pot 15% of the time, you're making $15 a hand, which option is better?

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This number is actually 30%, but exactly what I was going to say. Any other hand you pick is lower. AKs is about 20% and JTs is about 15%. Sometimes you'll win unimproved. Sometimes you'll need to spike a set to win. Sometimes you'll make two pair with a small pair on the board. Sometimes you'll get 4 to a flush.

Lots o' ways for AA to win in a multiway pot.

[tessarji]

By keeping the pot smaller, you are increasing your chance to win... a smaller pot.

The result of doing the right thing with aces pre-flop is that you can create a pot so huge that it is unfoldable to anyone still drawing live. This is great news. They will call you, correctly, all the way down to the river if they have any chance of winning. Though you win less often, the pot is the maximum size when your aces hold up or improve to a bigger hand.

If you keep the pot smaller pre-flop, you can make it incorrect for long shot hands like this to call you down.

Which means they will fold instead (if they play well) or call incorrectly and make you some additional money from their mistake. The extra equity you gain from these potential post-flop mistakes is extremely unlikely to compensate you for the equity derived from the 20+ small bets you did not get into the flop pre-flop.

Maybe you should stop raising with AK on the button as well. Then, you could keep the pot so small that it would be wrong for people to call with flush draws, so you make more money after the flop. Do you see how idiotic this is?

You lost this pot because the last player drew to a hand with correct pot odds. Nice hand. Hope next time your pair holds up, and keep capping with aces.

[Redd]

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Aces play well in any type of pot. If you have everybody at the table going to showdown with you everytime you have AA, you'll make way more money than if you are heads up.

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This is not true. Multiway it is very difficult for one pair to win a pot. Therefore you are drawing to a two-outer that will frequently lose to a straight or flush anyway. Since you cannot win the hand unimproved ten ways with all players going to the river, you must hit your set (1/4.5 times) to win. This means you will, on average, win 2:1 on your money with aces multiway, provided no one beats your set. Since this will happen some of the time I would say aces only win about 15% of the time in a 10-way no fold em pot. This is marginal profit compared with smaller (3 or 4 way) action where you are more like 70% likely to win.

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Dude, I'm not trying to be a wiseass or clever or anything like that. But just about this whole paragraph is incorrect. Aces have about 30% pot equity against 10 random hands, and win UI as often as you see the best hand on the riv being a pair. And even though the odds of winning with aces do decrease as you add more players, the overall profit you can expect will go up. And profit will go up even faster in a game where nobody ever folds.