Calculating risk of ruin for SnG Specialists

[FatalError]

Has anyone gone as far as calculating risk of ruin for a given ROI/bankroll/buyin level? I'd be interested in seeing how far 100 buys goes in protecting your livelyhood

[BradleyT]

One of the latest and greatest spreadsheets has this.

[dfscott]

I think this is correct (the stats guys can correct me if I'm wrong):

e ^ ((-2 * DPT * BR)/SD ^ 2))

e = base of the natural log
DPT = dollars per tourney
BR = your BR
SD = standard deviation per tourney

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is correct (the stats guys can correct me if I'm wrong):

e ^ ((-2 * DPT * BR)/SD ^ 2))

e = base of the natural log
DPT = dollars per tourney
BR = your BR
SD = standard deviation per tourney

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate standard deviation? And I'm assuming DPT includes rake also, right?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is correct (the stats guys can correct me if I'm wrong):

e ^ ((-2 * DPT * BR)/SD ^ 2))

e = base of the natural log
DPT = dollars per tourney
BR = your BR
SD = standard deviation per tourney

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate standard deviation? And I'm assuming DPT includes rake also, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

DPT is average profit per tournament played, so you do have to account for the rake.

So, if you play 21 33s and win a total of $900 in prizes, your profit is $207. 207/21 = $9.86.

Standard deviation is a standard mathematical forumula. I'll leave it as a exercise for the reader (hint: try googling it).

[Paul2432]

SD for most SNGers will be around 1.8 buy-ins. Note you can use buy-in or $ as a unit for everything, but you need to be consistent. If you use buy-ins substitute ROI for DPT.

Note that this formula is bases on an accumulating bankroll. If you regularly withdrawl adjust your DPT by the amount you withdrawl. Note that if you withdrawl everything you win risk, of ruin is 100%.

Paul

[Phil Van Sexton]

I keep hearing questions about Risk of Ruin. Does it does really mean anything? Do you calculate your chances of being hit by lightning before leaving your house in the rain?

Just play poker. If you hit a bad streak, drop down a limit.

I'm no professional poker player, so I guess I don't get it.

On the other hand, I don't spend time calculating my chances of getting fired from my job today. I'm sure making this post during work time has increased this somewhat, how much I'm not sure....actually I gotta go.