Another bubble decision

[Phoenix1010]

Total number of players : 4
UTG ( $2535 )
Button ( $2865 )
Hero ( $1560 )
BB ( $1040 )
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Hero is SB with [ Ks As ]
UTG is all-in [2535]
Button folds
Hero?


Hero has 1410 after posting the small blind
BB has 740 after posting the big blind.
Call or fold?

[Maulik]

how often has our hero been pushing into us?

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
how often has our hero been pushing into us?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question, if you're asking about UTG (villain). He has actually been pushing rather often lately, implying that he has a wider than usual pushing range. I don't think he has any random hand however.

[Phoenix1010]

Bump.

[Nottom]

This is a tough spot.

You say hes been pushing a lot, but unless hes crazy he can't be too loose with the big stack right behind him.

He really has to be pushing a lot of worse 'A's and other non-pair hands to make calling profitable. (Somthing like A5+ and KJ+). If you think hes nuts than call, I would tend to fold and wait for a spot to put my money in as the raiser.

[syka16]

I'd fold unless he's a maniac. Big stack to his left and a desperate stack in the BB... he must have some sort of decent hand.

[Phoenix1010]

Can someone do these calcs for me please? What is my tournament equity for calling if I know for a fact that villain has (each with no spade):

A. 99
B. QJo
C. A2o
D. 77+, A9s+, AJo+, KQs

I have a large skill edge over the other three players, but I'm not sure how to quantify this, so I'm just interested in knowing the raw math before I decide whether calling is probably right or probably wrong.

I called in the actual hand, BB folded, and villain showed 99. I won the coinflip to eventually take first, but I thought it was an interesting hand.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone do these calcs for me please? What is my tournament equity for calling if I know for a fact that villain has (each with no spade):


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't do with no spade, since I'm using eastbay's tool (unless someone knows something I don't). Here's your results given generic versions of your hands:

A. 99 = -5.5%
B. QJo = +1.2%
C. A2o = +4.3%
D. 77+, A9s+, AJo+, KQs = -2.4%

Edit: Now you see why I love 99...

[11t]

I think this is a call, you are either gonna need to double up or have the short stack bust out and there is a good chance the villain has his outs tied up in your hand.

If you had around 2000 chips I would probably fold though

[Phoenix1010]

Thanks a lot dfscott. Yeh, apparently 99 is a monster there. Negative equity given a standard pushing range... Looks like I should have folded...