trying to understand tournament equity on decisions after the flop

[SeriousStudent]

First of all, thanks to all on the site who have explained bubble play, icm, and the like. Once I became a believer and changed my play, my number of 1st and 2nds on the 100+9 have gone way up, and 4th and 5th gone way down.

Now I know icm doesn't explicitly consider post flop play ( or does it?), but I ran the numbers to see what move gave the best approach. I'm new to hand converters, and no matter what I tried I couldn't get the right output out of bison, so I went to text output and hand edited it.

Possibly I should have gone all in preflop, but the move I analyzed is whether to go all in after the flop, or trap. In the actual hand, I decided to trap the bigger stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter

Hero (t1005)
CO (t740)
Button (t3351)
SB (t2744)
BB (t910)
UTG (t930)
MP1 (t320)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh, Kc.
2 folds, Hero raises to t400, 1 fold, Button calls t400, 2 folds.

Flop: (t1100) Td, 4d, 7c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button raises t700, Hero calls t605


Final Pot: t2310

My equity before the hand - $11.60

AI first to act by me after the flop case:

Let’s assume it results in a fold by my opponent 60% of the time and a call 40% of the time that I win 50% of the time.

So my equity is zero 20% of the time and I win net 700 chips

My equity is $17.88 if I win, time 0.8 =$14.30

Check to trap case:

Let’s assume it results in a bet 100% of the time that I win 65% of the time


Equity zero 35% of the time and $22.22 when I win, for a net of $14.44

Preflop all in case:

Assume called only 20% of the time, and win 70% of the time I am called.

My equity is $14.60 80% of the time with no callers, $22.22 with a button caller and I win 14% of the time, and 0 6% of the time for a net equity of $14.79,.


So my questions

1) am I even thinking about this correctly and using the tool correctly?
2) Are my assumptions for each case reasonable?
3) Are these 3 totally different ways of playing the hand essentially a toss up?

[Nick M]

7 people left, you have 1000...5bb, and you double it preflop?? Why do this??? You must double up. You have no chance of winning unless you double up. Just move in and hope to get called. Why are you trying to outplay yourself by not getting all your money in there preflop??? What happens when an Ace falls on the flop, what do you do?? You have 5BB just move in.
I'm not even going to get into your check on the flop. If you opponent has any pair he calls your all in. And if he doesn't, he probably has an ace that can beat you on the turn if he takes his free card.

As for all those questions about equity, I have no idea hahaha. All I can give you is my opinion on the right play in this situation. MOVE IN...

[SeriousStudent]

Normally if I have something worse than KK, like AQ or TT in this situation I would push.

But I was experimenting with playing this way, the thinking to increase the chance of a caller of my raise and increase the chance of someone getting all their chips in.

I expected that I would get all my chips in one way or the other so it wasn't about being too cautious.

[Nick M]

weak is strong, strong is weak.
I am confused why you would move in with 10s but now Ks. Do you think Jacks are going to fold??? Why move in with AQ and not Ks, do you think someone is going to fold AK? If anything if you move in with AQ or 10s the only hand you'll get to fold is 5s. And that's the call you want. You want 5s to call you if you have AQ right?? At this point I would be praying for a coin flip.

[SeriousStudent]

With AQ I want everyone to fold, and win the blinds. I certainly don't want 55 to call as I will lose more often than win and be out of the tournament. AQ really isn't that great.

With the weaker hands I'm more likely to push because I don't want any callers. With KK and AA I do want one, at most two callers. Thats why I would bet less with KK/AA than AQ or TT in this situation. I want AJ and AQ to fold when I have the TT and I want 33-99 to fold when I have the AQ.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
With AQ I want everyone to fold, and win the blinds. I certainly don't want 55 to call as I will lose more often than win and be out of the tournament. AQ really isn't that great.

With the weaker hands I'm more likely to push because I don't want any callers. With KK and AA I do want one, at most two callers. Thats why I would bet less with KK/AA than AQ or TT in this situation. I want AJ and AQ to fold when I have the TT and I want 33-99 to fold when I have the AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like to play all my hands the same way. The way you play now your opponent could figure what you are doing and calling your all ins preflop, and folding to your minraises.

So with 5 BB there is no way you could get me to choose another play than all in or fold. Push!

[Nick M]

Zap I like to play that way too. 5bb PUSH!!!

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I know icm doesn't explicitly consider post flop play ( or does it?)

[/ QUOTE ]

ICM - Independent Chip Modeling is just a theory for estimating the value of each players chip stack at any given point. For post flop play you would still use ICM by figuring out the expected chip distributions for any given move and then using ICM to calculate the value of each move.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm new to hand converters, and no matter what I tried I couldn't get the right output out of bison

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to use it, then it didn't work a couple times and haven't used it for a while. It seems to mess hands up a lot. If you use it, you may have to edit the result.

[ QUOTE ]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter

Hero (t1005)
CO (t740)
Button (t3351)
SB (t2744)
BB (t910)
UTG (t930)
MP1 (t320)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Kh, Kc.
2 folds, Hero raises to t400, 1 fold, Button calls t400, 2 folds.

Flop: (t1100) Td, 4d, 7c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button raises t700, Hero calls t605


Final Pot: t2310

My equity before the hand - $11.60


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, your equity is .116 of the prize pool. If you were playing in an $10+1 your $EV would be $11.60, but there are 10,000 chips so I'll just stick with .116 of whatever the prize pool is.

[ QUOTE ]

AI first to act by me after the flop case:

Let’s assume it results in a fold by my opponent 60% of the time and a call 40% of the time that I win 50% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

When they fold the chip distribution will be:
1705-740-2951-2644-710-930-320

putting this in the ICM calculator I get .179

When they call and you win, the chip distribution will be .223 and when they call and you lose you will have 0.

So the total is .6 * .179 + .4 * .5 * .223 = .152

[ QUOTE ]

So my equity is zero 20% of the time and I win net 700 chips

My equity is $17.88 if I win, time 0.8 =$14.30

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's right. I think it is .152 or $15.20 if it were a $100 prize pool.
[ QUOTE ]

Check to trap case:

Let’s assume it results in a bet 100% of the time that I win 65% of the time


Equity zero 35% of the time and $22.22 when I win, for a net of $14.44

[/ QUOTE ]

.65 x .223 = .145 , $14.50 or .44 whatever if $100 prize pool, that's right

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop all in case:

Assume called only 20% of the time, and win 70% of the time I am called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now we have a new chip distribution for when you are not called preflop:
1305-740-3351-2644-710-930-320 your $EV = .156

so this case is .8 x .156 + .2 x .7 x .179 = .150 or $15.00 if $100 prize pool. This is going with the assumption that you have one caller from out of the blinds that has you covered.

[ QUOTE ]

My equity is $14.60 80% of the time with no callers, $22.22 with a button caller and I win 14% of the time, and 0 6% of the time for a net equity of $14.79,.


[/ QUOTE ]

See above - I think this is $15.00 sort of

[ QUOTE ]

So my questions

1) am I even thinking about this correctly and using the tool correctly?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are some errors in how you are using the tool. I think you are missing a step if you are trying to analyze whether it is best to push preflop or slow play. You need to do this analysis before you see the flop. If you had flopped an Ace this would be very different.

[ QUOTE ]

2) Are my assumptions for each case reasonable?


[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. I started this a long time ago, did some other things, put a kid to sleep, just wanted to finish the numbers, and am too sleepy to think about the assumptions.

[ QUOTE ]

3) Are these 3 totally different ways of playing the hand essentially a toss up?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is very very hard to lose money any way you play KK [in the long run], but there are better ways to play than others. In this case, I don't mind trapping, but I still min-raise. There's no need to give the Big Blind a free flop and you might induce a raise.

Ok, I see this is a $100. You need to multiply all the dollar amounts by 10.

Lemme know if I screwed up or if you have any questions.

[flo]

Can you guide me to posts explaining all those theories? Do books (like Harrington on hold'em) contain them (all)? I'm looking out for stuff that contains all theory, leaving me only with the task of understanding them and getting experienced with them. I have the bad feeling i might miss something if i continue searching the posts on my own, and i don't think i can get the big picture that way /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Thanks in advance!

[SeriousStudent]

You are correct. I didn't properly consider all 3 situations in a few of the calculations.

Thank you very much for analyzing my thinking and math. I always knew that a frequent all in strategy was hard to beat, but never really understood why until I played around with icm and these models. More frequent all ins in late tournament stages has made a huge difference in my game in a short amount of time.

[SeriousStudent]

There is an article in the May 2005 2+2 on line magazine about this subject, and also go to member eastbay and click on the link in his profile.

[microbet]

There are posts about this stuff, but you can get some info from Dethgrind's Web site (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

HOH doesn't go into this stuff (though I think it is an excellent book). I haven't read Sklansky's books /images/graemlins/blush.gif but I think they are more likely resources.