EV of bubble fold

[KHALI]

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A friend and I had this debate over a hand in a sit and go--on the surface the decision seems trivially easy, but upon retrospect I'm not so sure.

$200 Sit'n go on Stars, 4 players left, blinds 200/400 Ante 25, standard prize amounts for 1,2,3.

Player1 (t180)
Villain (t8785) SB
Hero (t3190) BB dealt AA
Player4(t1345)

Player 4 fold, Player 1 fold, Villain raises to 4400.

What would be the EV of a fold versus a call in a situation like this.

[pzhon]

According to the independent chip model, if you fold you place 1st-4th with probabilities .207, .466, .296, .032. That is worth 0.302 of the prize pool.

If you call an win, you place 1st-4th with probabilities .473, .393, .127, .007. That is worth 0.380 of the prize pool.

If these are accurate, you should call if you win more than 79.6% of the time (ignoring ties), which should be true with AA. It is a close decision, though.