Common Turn Situation Against Relative Unknown

[mprhino]

Something I come across alot, and I think I end up calling down too much.

I raise in early to middle position with something like AQ

Seemingly LP player (villain) calls behind - about 3 or 4 to flop.

Flop Axx - 2 suited - I bet, villain calls, rest fold.

Turn - 3rd suited - I bet, villain pops.

Is this a clear fold? (say I have about 25 hands on the hypothetical villain - with no post-flop aggression shown yet)

Considering the pot isn't too large here, I feel like I need to start laying these down regularly.

[Chris Dow]

If you have the redraw to the flush as your kicker you call down easily. Aside from that you should typically be calling down if it was 4 players to the flop. Your odds on the call down with 4 to the flop is around 4.5-1. Consider being good already and outdrawing a 2p hand in any myriad of ways that you can and I don't think it's a major leak. Do consider the passivity of your opponent postflop, but also certainly consider the sample size you're drawing that conclusion from. 25 hands = nothing.

[mprhino]

Yeah, sorry...definitely assuming no redraw for a flush. Maybe its just been happening alot lately where villain has been turning over the made flush. It just got me thinking whether this calldown is really profitable against someone with unreliable numbers.

[Chris Dow]

You have to be right so rarely, and they will donk so much, that this is the sort of fold that can lead to folding too much. You're getting some decent odds. When you know your player its fine to let it go but against the massive amount of unknowns I like calling down a lot. Remember to smile extra wide the next time they are donking with middle pair bad flush draw that they picked up on the turn.

[mprhino]

Exactly. The other reason I don't mind seeing down is it makes me happy that they cold called with Q5s. Thanks

[Chris Dow]

It certainly bears consideration that when you call down from here with your hand it is never going to recover the edge for them that they are giving up cold calling with hands like that vs you preflop. It's too bad that when you are running well you don't see all of their terrible plays that are stuffing your pockets, but run bad for a couple k of hands and all you see is the ridiculous stuff that they were consistently missing earlier.

[flair1239]

I have these days. I was running bad Monday and Tuesday, it seemed like everytime I bet the turn I was getting checkraised or raised.

It is interesting how many times that they are doing this with a flush draw (One of the suit in their hand) or even a straight draw.

As a remedy for this; what I have started doing is throwing in some three-bets with hands that maybe I am not overly fond of. It is suprising how much this generates a fold against certain players. I also believe that even if you do not win the hand, that it keeps some of these guys from constantly putting heat on you. I am not suggesting doing this everytime, but if you are playing a longer session or frequently play with this player, I think there are some "metagame" benefits to doing this even when you are light once in a while.

[billyjex]

I call down everytime.