Hand 1 for analysis

[madscout]

Party Poker $100NL 6-max

Villain has been running you over all night long. He views you as weak and playing on scared money. You have however made a couple big hands and have built a stack. Villain has ~$150 and you have him well covered.

You are dealt 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif in the big blind
folded to villain on the button

Villain Raises $5
You Call $5

Flop (~$10) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif

You lead for $10
Villain Raises to $35

How do you proceed from this tough spot? Would you have avoided this situation by folding preflop knowing it would probably be very expensive to draw out of position?

[Marnixvdb]

it's a push or fold

Given the potsize and given your description of villain I'd have to put him on such a wide hand range that I'd push this hand in this spot.

[mishafp]

I dont think your pre-flop call is TERRIBLE, if only to mix stuff up, especially if you can outplay him post-flop. I am not a fan of leading into him on the flop, as you are surely going to get re-raised by any overpaid- and maybe even any A, because he thinks he can run over you. i mean, he isnt going to put you on hitting ANY of that board, so the only point of your bet seems to be build the pot, and your result is making your own draw way more expensive than you want it to be). This is a good situation to try to see your multiple draws as cheaply as you can, esp. since this guy is gonna try to run over you on later streets if you hit. So just check, call and see what the turn will bring (if its a 5, you could be getting his entire stack).

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a push or fold

[/ QUOTE ]

i despise this phrase, its definitely not a "push or fold" situation. stacks are deep enough where you don't have to just shove your chips in.

[Marnixvdb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's a push or fold

[/ QUOTE ]

i despise this phrase, its definitely not a "push or fold" situation. stacks are deep enough where you don't have to just shove your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case im interested what you would do, because I don't see how you can call when he will most likely shut down on any turn that finishes your draw. Also, any raise is pot-comitting vs his stack, so you might push it yourself already anyway.

Marnix

[mythrilfox]

I don't like the phrase either, Chris, but I think this situation qualifies.

[TrailofTears]

Why not make it about 75-80?

[mythrilfox]

Villain calls.

Turn is a blank.

Well ...

now what?

[TrailofTears]

Right, this sucks out of position. Maybe I'll take that into account next time I make a bad suggestion. Thanks myth.

If we had followed my line and the turn blanked, I think I would have to check and hope he does the same behind me, or check/fold like the moron I am.

-Trail

[madscout]

In this hand which I posted from both points of view, I had the 67s. I flat called my opponent's raise to $35, which I think was one of the worse options.

The turn went check check. The river went check check (I didn't complete my draw).

Opponent tabled As Kd for the winner. I posted the hand from the other perspective (with opponent having AA/KK instead of AK) to see if I a push would have been +EV.

I think Marnixvdb hit the nail on the head:

"Given the potsize and given your description of villain I'd have to put him on such a wide hand range that I'd push this hand in this spot."

Given the opponents wide range of hands and a little bit of fold equity if he really does have an overpair, I think a push would have been the best move. If opponent does have an over pair and calls I am still over 40% to improve and win the hand.

Final thoughts?

Thanks for the comments everyone!

~madscout

[sawseech]

you can stack him if you catch
call

[pyedog]

I would go all in here and try to steal the $55 already in the pot. You have 12 near lock outs to a winning hand if you are called. That's about 45% to hit, so assuming he even folds 10% of the time to your all-in then it's probably a +EV play.

EV = (0.1)*55 + (0.9)(0.45)*165 - (0.9)(0.55)*135 = $5.5

Considering he could easily be raising with overcards on this flop I think his chance of folding is higher than 10% too. Then again, this is a high variance play at higher stakes than I play at. Just calling and trying to extract value when you hit out of position would seem difficult. Plus he might just bet too much on the turn for you to call profitably (which seems likely from an aggressive opponent). In that case then you've wasted the $25 call on the flop.

Edit: math error in formula. It's closer than I first estimated assuming he only folds 10% of the time.

[NickPoker]

First of all I would have pushed. It will force him to lay down a non made hand (unless he is an idiot).

Second of all I think the river would have been a good place for a all in or pot size bet. He showed major weakness by checking behind on the turn. I think the pot size justifies the risk. I don't stone cold bluff too often, but I think this would be a good place for it, especially since he views you as being weak (he probably doesn't think you have it in you to make a big bluff).