Raising the river to avoid a 3-way split.

[Subfallen]

Here's one more, tell me if I'm stupid. Comments on all streets appreciated, but the river is what's particularly sketchy.

UTG raises a lot pre-flop, but turns into a complete calling station post-flop. SB seems non-donkish, above average agression.

PokerRoom 5/10, 5-MAX, 5 handed

Pre-flop: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
- UTG raises, 2 folds, SB calls, I call in the BB

Flop (6 SB): 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
- SB bets, I raise, UTG calls, SB 3-bets, I call, UTG calls

Turn (7.5 BB): 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
- SB bets, I call (questionable, right?), UTG calls

River (10.5 BB): 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
- SB bets, I raise...

My thoughts were that SB did not have the 9-high straight on the flop (he wouldn't 3-bet in that case), so I figured him for a set or a naked 7 or a weird two pair. All around this looked like a 3-way split to me. So why not raise to blow UTG away and make it a 2-way split?

Unexpected results to follow.

[maxpowers21]

if you are up against a 9 you lose 3 BB instead of 1 for callign down. so -2BB. I also think that any non-9-hand here will call down very close to 100% of the time. I see nothing to gain from the play except a freeroll to lose -2BB's.

To put more math into it: by going from a 3 split to a split you only gain 1/3 to 1/2 which is only 3/6-2/6=1/6 more BB's. Since there are already 11.5 BB's int eh pot you are going to gain less then 2BB's when 3rd player folds and lose 2BB's when one of the two players has a 9. So now you have to force 3rd player to fold a non-9 over 50%. This simply will not happen.

Raising is clearly -EV

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
So why not raise to blow UTG away and make it a 2-way split?

Unexpected results to follow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hope that answered your question.

[Subfallen]

I would fold to a 3-bet, but looking at the math more, you're clearly right. Thx. In the actual hand, UTG quickly called and showed K9. SB folded 66.

[maxpowers21]

I find it funny that SB bet here in the first place. But do you also see how you and the Sb each would have saved a bet if you went check check. I guess that people will fold this river much less then 100% if Sb played the line this way. So who knows, an arguemnt might be made for trying this play heads up agaisnt the right player.

[maxpowers21]

Also another note. If the board shows an ace high straight no flush draws, then i will always raise and reraise, because at very worse, not including rake, the play must be greater then or equal to +0 Ev

Once in a while you might actually get a retard to fold here and split up the profits.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
. So now you have to force 3rd player to fold a non-9 over 50%. This simply will not happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I very much prefer doing this raise after 1 or 2 checks on river, then I will know they are weak and if aggro guy bets there are a lot to win from raising.

But anyway, would u call 2BB on river in this spot? I mean, even if this guy is raising as a bluff u still got the guy who bet?

I dont think u will get a 3way split often enough to call 2BB in this spot because this double bluff - a bet and a raise - is not very common.

[Noodles]

the preflop call in the BB, is this standard? getting 5/1 with 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
i would fold this in a shot, is this a big leak of mine?

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
the preflop call in the BB, is this standard? getting 5/1 with 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
i would fold this in a shot, is this a big leak of mine?

[/ QUOTE ]


I think it's an easy fold.

[Noodles]

yea kinda strange the others dont mentions this.especially when the utg is raising,
what oods would you be comfortable with?
8/1 ?

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
yea kinda strange the others dont mentions this.especially when the utg is raising,
what oods would you be comfortable with?
8/1 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with one more caller, getting 7:1 and closing the action. In that case, I think it's close and depends on table conditions, but typically I'd call.