River Shenanagins With KQ

[Jazza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($78.35)
SB ($96)
BB ($99.25)
UTG ($128.65)
UTG+1 ($77.3)
UTG+2 ($99)
MP1 ($579.38)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($99)</font>
<font color="#C00000">MP3 ($79.5)</font>
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $1, MP3 calls $1, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, MP3 calls $3, CO folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($10.50) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP3 calls $10.

River: ($30.50) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP3 calls $65.50 (All-In), Hero calls $55.50.

Final Pot: $161.50

what do you guys think of my river play? what do you guys do on the river?

[theredpill5]

I don't think you played the hand that badly. I would have done the same thing on the flop and turn. The only thing that I see that is beating you is AT and 9T for the flopped straight.

I might have checked the river and called a small bet like $10 but with the way you played it on the river, I would have folded to his all-in. That screams flopped straight. He has to be aware that you could have flopped two pair and his all-in is telling you that he isn't worried that you could have flopped two pair at all.

[Ghazban]

Without a read, I don't like it. If you know villain to be the sort to make this sort of desperate bluff with a missed flush/straight draw, its better. Looks like he flopped the nuts and you bet it for him the whole way.

[KowCiller]

The only thing I may do differently is check-call the river to induce a flush draw or lone T to bluff at it. I think Villain's range is pretty big on the flop and turn. When the river blanks, I think check-call wins you the most and loses you the least in this spot.

Hope it worked out.

KoW

Logically. it looks like you are against a straight but the title seems to indicate that you got sucked out with 88.

I think you played it fine. Tough river decision, though. Hopefully he has KJ or QJ and thought his hand is goot.

[TrailofTears]

For those that are advocating a river check-call (as a bluff inducer), what are you doing with the river push? I think a blocking bet like this is fine if you are willing to let it go against severe adversity, which was the case here.

-Trail

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
For those that are advocating a river check-call (as a bluff inducer), what are you doing with the river push? I think a blocking bet like this is fine if you are willing to let it go against severe adversity, which was the case here.

-Trail

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you like the size of the blocking bet? I generally think a blocking bet needs to be 1/2 pot or so to be worthwhile. Smaller bets encourage certain types of maniacs to come over the top with nothing as they sense weakness. While that works well when you're strong, I don't think that applies here.

[DoomSlice]

I think it's fine, you're just as likely to be against a lower two pair (K8)(Q8) etc... as you are a set/straight. Since you bet so weak on the river he might even think that YOU were on the lone T.

Nice hand I say, and a pox on to all who say otherwise!

[TrailofTears]

You're right Ghaz. I think the bet needs to be between 15-18 here. If villain is comfortable coming over the top of that bet, he has you beat enough that I think folding is the best option. Does this sound better? (Thanks for pointing that out, btw.)

-Trail

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
For those that are advocating a river check-call (as a bluff inducer), what are you doing with the river push? I think a blocking bet like this is fine if you are willing to let it go against severe adversity, which was the case here.

-Trail

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very tough spot and honestly I'm not sure what the best course of action. There's really only 1 logical hand that he's behind, but all too often it seems they have that one hand...

I don't think there's any question that if you blindly check-called this river regardless of bet size it's a higher EV play than the line that OP took, however, in an effort to maximize EV, I'm really torn whether or not I would call if Villain pushes.

Obviously if I say fold, then the question is, what bet size is the break point?

A read on this guy might come in handy...such as, what's his river aggression? The more aggressive he is, the more likely I'd be calling it down with top 2.

If I had to commit to one action on the river if Villain pushes, I'm going with call the push. If for no other reason, because it's SSNL on PP.

KoW

[Chris Daddy Cool]

without a read its really hard to say. i doubt you're up against a set because the lack of a preflop raise.

you're losing to AT and T9 and beating pretty much everything else (Assuming the guy isnt retarded, 55 and 88 get folding on the flop)

so there's 16 combinations of AT and 16 combinations of T9, so 32 combos where you're dead, though T9o isn't always played so lets just say 24 combos.

you'e beating all 2 pair combos. i'm going to assume a 8 or 5 is not involved.

2 combos of KQ (where you tie)
6 combos of KJ
6 combos of QJ

so we're up against a reasonable range of about 38 hands, where 63% of the time you lose, 32% you lose, and 5% you tie.

of course we also have to account for bluffing frequency. let's include hands like KT, QT, and JT which seem like reasonble hands and that's 28 combinations of those. how often will he bluff theses hands? let's say 25% of the time, which is 7 combination of hands.

so rework the hand combos to account for bluffing:

24/45 where you lose to AT or T9
19/45 where you lose to a worse two pair or a bluff
2/45 where you split the pot with another KQ

when he pushes on the river you're getting 106-55.5 odds, or about 1.91-1.

based on the hand ranges i've assigned calling is ever so slightly +EV (you need about 1.5-1 to call). HOWEVER, my hand ranges don't account for the times you're up against KK,QQ, or JJ that didn't raise preflop, which makes the decision even closer, maybe even shifting it to -EV.

EDIT TO ADD: I thought the flop was rainbow not two toned, which adds in more bluffing combinations, which pushes it closer to a definite call.

[jonnyUCB]

Personally I hate investing a lot of money on a hand just to fold it to a big bet. As such I would like to avoid that large of a blocking bet on the river if I can.

Is there any merit to checking the turn to see his action? Personally I think OP's PSB bloats the boat and makes it much harder to fold the river. I like checking it, folding to a large bet and if they check I can pretty obviously put them on a draw and I can judge the river card a lot better.

I think its a pretty good tradeoff of value for increased accuracy/not building a huge pot OOP.

[jonnyUCB]

anyone like checking the turn here?

[TrailofTears]

Regarding the turn... [ QUOTE ]
I like checking it, folding to a large bet

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a "large bet"? A pot-sized bet? I am not laying this hand down to a pot bet on thet turn. Sometimes I am weak, but that is ultra weak.

-Trail

[swolfe]

i like a slightly smaller bet on the turn, but that's just preference.

with two connected pair and a 3rd board connected with no gaps, i'd be trying to keep the pot small. bet $7 on the turn, then check-call the river.

you might also consider raising preflop. i'd personally muck it half the time and raise it the other half with no limpers in front of me. with a poster in CO, i'm more likely raising because there's a bigger overlay for a steal attempt.

[pyedog]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone like checking the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that by far the most likely hand for your opponent when he just calls on the flop is some sort of draw. Either a flush draw, a 10 for an open ended straight draw, or else an Ace or even a 9 for a gutshot draw. He could also have one pair and a gutshot or backdoor draw. So with so many river cards that can kill your hand, checking the turn seems like a big mistake to me.

Someone already mentioned that the chance of your opponent having a set are low because of the lack of a preflop raise. A slowplayed made straight is obviously a definite concern though.

I think that considering your opponent is most likely on a draw with many potential outs, betting the turn is a good idea. However, I can see the benefit of checking the river to induce a bluff when his draws appear to have missed. What about if a heart or a 9,10 or A hits though? Do you still check and call a smallish bet on the river? I guess that in this case a blocking bet would be a big mistake. It seems like the best option there is to check and hope that he makes a small enough bet that you can call and hope that he's bluffing a different missed draw.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
So with so many river cards that can kill your hand, checking the turn seems like a big mistake to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agree completely. Checking the turn is horrible.

KoW

[Jazza]

villian had K5o

my thought process through the hand

preflop: woops, i probably should have raised that espeically since CO postes, ah well

flop: no time to mess around, some one has to have a straight draw, i will make them pay for it. think he might be on a pair plus straight draw after that call

turn: brick, excellent, once again i will make him pay the full amount to draw. i still think he is on a pair and straight draw

river: brick, thank you poker gods. lets see, if i check, i think he'll check behind with one pair. i'll try and get a value bet in, i think he'll have to call $10 with a pair. what's that, you want to raise all in? seems he had the straight all a long.

but then flashes of KJ QJ KQ kept going through my head, and also i thought it strange some one with the nuts would fire out an all in after i showed some weakness, i would expect a milker bet like a raise to $30 or $35 total, so i called

but i'm still not sure about my river play, villian definatly won't have K5 every time. check-calling feels too weak and the problem with a serious block bet of $15-$20 is that i'd be too tempted to call when he raises all in.

[hukilai]

With no read on opponents I put him on AK, KJ, KQ hands with sligh chance of a weak A.
I would bet more on the river, about 25 or so, and call the push.