Big League Spew?

[shant]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (24.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Yes? No?

[Kyle]

fold preflop. Flop looks good

[SmileyEH]

Fold preflop. Flop looks fine.

-SmileyEH

[MagicFlea]

I think this is right... but obviously 70% of the time you're going to lose a bunch of money on this hand. However this is a huge pot and you have to try to know people out. You never know, CO may have had the only other A and you just won yourself the pot when it falls...

oh wait. bad call preflop. blech

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my main question, so I probably should've posted it without the flop. I don't cold-call often, but how many people need to coldcall before I should even consider it?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my main question, so I probably should've posted it without the flop. I don't cold-call often, but how many people need to coldcall before I should even consider it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Position is more important in this case. If there were two cold callers, the open raiser was a little laggy and you had the button or the CO I CC here.

-SmileyEH

[Justin A]

I don't think the preflop call is that bad. If I'm on the button I think it's an easy call. Since you're MP2 I think it's a fold, but only barely, so you're not costing yourself much.

[Isura]

I think you need to know either 1) the game is very passive preflop or 2) you are closer to closing the action, to make this a profitable cold-call against an UTG1 raiser.

[HajiShirazu]

I think cold calls like this are pretty bad. I would much rather have 22 here and 22 is close, if not a fold.
Note that your equity is pretty bad, but worse, you don't have a very bettable hand postflop unless you make a flush.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,478,768 games 29.482 secs 151,915 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.0426 % [ 00.33 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 22.6093 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { 99-22, AJs-A5s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo }
Hand 3: 22.5360 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { 99-22, AJs-A6s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo }
Hand 4: 20.8122 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { A4s }

[crunchy1]

I think you need to take into account at least one random hand from the remaining players left to act into this analysis which would give Hero enough equity to make the call here.

The bigger factor is what the players left to act behind you are. Putting 4 bets into this pot PF sucks. If you had reads that other players were generally passive (and loose) I think the PF call is fine.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Note that your equity is pretty bad, but worse, you don't have a very bettable hand postflop unless you make a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero doesn't flop the draw then he's done with the hand and loses 2SBs. I know he's not quite getting the ~5.5-to-1 that he needs to call for the flush draw - but you do have position on the EP raiser and the two cold-callers so I think it's pretty easy to make those bets up with decent post-flop play.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I know he's not quite getting the ~5.5-to-1 that he needs to call for the flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

A flush draw is &gt;8-1 to come in on the flop. Also, there is a distinction between the odds of flopping a flush draw, and the preflop odds required to make two suited cards +EV.

If you are 8.1-1 to flop a flush draw, you cant just conclude that you need 8.1-1 preflop.

See: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2121253&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1

[ckessel]

Spew is the preflop call. You're calling an UTG raiser and TWO cold callers with A4s?

The flop seems fine. I don't generally like capping a draw when the board is paired, but there's so much action it's probably for value. Just pray someone doesn't hit (or hasn't already hit). I think even if I make the flush I'm not capping it on the turn or river though, since someone willing to bet back at me that hard with a flush on the board almost certainly has a full house.

[CanKid]

I muck this preflop.

Your flop cap just might have given you 2 more outs from CO folding, not to mention position for rest of hand. Ni han.

[ckessel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my main question, so I probably should've posted it without the flop. I don't cold-call often, but how many people need to coldcall before I should even consider it?

[/ QUOTE ]


I think SSH says at least 4 callers to call Axs and that's from late position.

This is one of those hands that might be profitable, if played perfectly at a mostly passive table. But it's so prone to being a leak if misplayed post flop that you're better off not playing it at all.

[Chris Dow]

So, people not calling preflop here at least some of the time are too tight. I don't mind the preflop call but as a few astute posters have pointed out, your position is not nearly as good as it could be. It is still not a bad cold call. The flop is enthusiastic, but I'm really estimating it as not doing anything but bumping up variance. The only real point is you can't get anyone to fold, nor is it really beneficial for you if they do since your goal is of course, make flush dodge boats. With 4 opponents going to the turn with you, you may actually be gaining value by 4 betting this draw here, it's close. I'll admit that after it gets capped like that, I would tend to just call along, make my flush and then play carefully to get the max bets in with my made hand that I safely could without implying that I'm gonna see a boat. Conclusion, this hand will naturally be super high variance as soon as preflop is capped and that's the flop.

[Snoogins47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know he's not quite getting the ~5.5-to-1 that he needs to call for the flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

A flush draw is &gt;8-1 to come in on the flop. Also, there is a distinction between the odds of flopping a flush draw, and the preflop odds required to make two suited cards +EV.

If you are 8.1-1 to flop a flush draw, you cant just conclude that you need 8.1-1 preflop.

See: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2121253&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

I always wondered why this was an intuitive concept with backdoor draws, and not preflop.

If somebody came on here and posted a backdoor flush hand, calling the flop because "I have 10 outs to my flush draw and I'm getting 5 to 1" it'd be ludicrous. Preflop though, it falsely seems to make more sense. Which itself doesn't make much sense. Maybe it's just my brain that does this, which would make sense.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
With 4 opponents going to the turn with you, you may actually be gaining value by 4 betting this draw here

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no maybe about it.

He is getting 4-1 on his 1.9-1 shot. If you discount his flush outs from 9 to 5, this is still +EV. The flop is most certainly +EV to cap.

[Chris Dow]

Ok, but that's oversimplifying for only a couple of reasons. #1 is that he can be drawing dead (runner runner sf). #2 is the way reverse implied odds are working here, this pot size is going to make it nearly impossible to fold that flush when he makes it and it's no good. So with 4 opponents you're right he has to be gaining value but it can be a lot less than the immediate flop crunching math suggests. There is also the fact that the pocket pairs that are going with him aren't 2 outers vs his flush but are 4 outers with the paired board.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
#1 is that he can be drawing dead (runner runner sf).

[/ QUOTE ]

Unlikely at best. UTG+2 could have a boat, but he only caleld the 3-bet. BB is like 0.001% chance to have a boat given preflop action.

[ QUOTE ]

#2 is the way reverse implied odds are working here, this pot size is going to make it nearly impossible to fold that flush when he makes it and it's no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

RIO do NOT apply in the flop situation. You are purely looking at this from an equity standpoint. Do you expect to win this pot at showdown &gt; 1 time in 5. Simply put, the answer is yes.

There is no way in hell that hero is folding a made flush (unless the board makes trips), because the size of the pot is so big from preflop. So, the argument of "putting in too many bets on the flop, so we cant fold our flush" makes no sense.


[ QUOTE ]

So with 4 opponents you're right he has to be gaining value but it can be a lot less than the immediate flop crunching math suggests. There is also the fact that the pocket pairs that are going with him aren't 2 outers vs his flush but are 4 outers with the paired board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he is less likely to win at showdown than if the board isnt paired. But, he is getting 4-1 on his money.

Not capping is terrible is no one has a 2, and marginally +EV (assuming reasonable hand distribtions) when A2 is out there.

Add to that, that hero just bought the button, and very possible a free river card (if no one has a 2, he gets a free card a lot), capping is the clear play.

[Chris Dow]

FWIW, RIO are in play here imo since bloating on the flop makes it completely impossible to fold the flush if it comes, whereas if I don't go insane on the flop I'm going to be able to fold for 2 cold on a later street. On another note, I will admit to missing the buying the button and outside shot of a free card benefits (donk donk cause they are very important) However when it is up to him to 4 bet he's already bought the button so it's simple free card and equity 4 bet. So I'll just try to donk a little quieter from now on but I will continue to disagree that he isn't increasing his RIO when he makes the flush and it's no good by pumping the flop.

EDIT! Ugh, I'm donking this post like insane. He does buy the button with the 4 bet! I'm posting and 4 tabling and sorry for my uselessness as presented in this thread!

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, RIO are in play here imo since bloating on the flop makes it completely impossible to fold the flush if it comes, whereas if I don't go insane on the flop I'm going to be able to fold for 2 cold on a later street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you've already said this.... Again, this is not the case. By capping preflop, hero increases the pot by 2 BBs. You probably arent folding the nut flush getting 15-1 later when you will be calling gettin 17-1. Either way, you're calling.

[ QUOTE ]

However when it is up to him to 4 bet he's already bought the button

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread the hand. He folded CO who was only going to have to call one more if hero didnt cap.

[Chris Dow]

I edited because I realized that when I actually went back and carefully scrutinized the flop action. I think letting them juice the flop for you, so that you can come alive if your flush hits (and perhaps work in value later in the hand with a made hand that you are unlikely to be able to do with the capping approach) has value. With 0 showdown potential and 0 outs to clean up I'm only arguing about the importance of going nuts on the flop vs being more passive on the flop (certainly it is highly unlikely that we want the CO to fold in terms of his chance of winning the pot and causing us not to win the pot, ok good lord he can have AA but lets instead talk about the hands he is least likely to fold, namely AA). I am going to try not to argue too hard here (because I would frequently cap) I was only arguing that I think the super aggression on the flop lines, vs the less aggression on the flop lines work out very close ev wise in this spot.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
With 0 showdown potential and 0 outs to clean up I'm only arguing about the importance of going nuts on the flop vs being more passive on the flop (certainly it is highly unlikely that we want the CO to fold in terms of his chance of winning the pot and causing us not to win the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

CO having AK and folding it, cleaning up 2 A outs is very possible here.

[Chris Dow]

Lol, I hate how you read my mind, because while typing I knew someone was going to bring up AK. But instead of throwing in a disclaimer (since I felt like I was "overdisclaimering" already) I just dodged it. Want me to just say okie doke cap it?

Statement:

Capping = g00t.

Statement:

I will occasionally not be so aggressive with flush draw here.

Statement:

I will frequently react as poster did and say 4 clubs sweet, ship it! (said on the flop while capping it)

The preceding were true statements.

Edit: As a short aside Ish, when I say not capping the flop I mean not being aggressive on the flop with my flush draw at all which enables some scenarios where say, we go to the turn for 2 bets from the flop.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
The bigger factor is what the players left to act behind you are. Putting 4 bets into this pot PF sucks. If you had reads that other players were generally passive (and loose) I think the PF call is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]
I should've added that the UTG raiser was fishy and didn't need much to raise, and the cold callers were donks. The only person I should've been worried about was the TAG in the CO who ended up 3-betting.