TAG donkbet

[27offsooot]

Villain is TAG
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero ?

[JDErickson]

I have seen this lately and the only thing I could figure out is they are trying to not give you a free card.

In this circumstance it looks differnet though. Maybe hes mixing up his play. Maybe hes trying to throw you off JJ or QQ with his TT?

I think I fold here though

[SmileyEH]

fun situation. I think its close between raising and folding, but I think folding is slightly better.

-SmileyEH

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is TAG
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm not folding, I'm raising and checking behind on the river.

[Entity]

If I'm the TAG, I'm betting here because I really want to 3-bet. A8s and 66 would be likely hands.

I'd fold unless I thought there was a reasonable chance he was bet-folding the turn for some odd reason.

Rob

[Perseus]

Do you fold if threebet?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold if threebet?

[/ QUOTE ]

He better.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold if threebet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Instantly

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm the TAG, I'm betting here because I really want to 3-bet. A8s and 66 would be likely hands.
Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if I were in his place, I would be trying this here to possibly three-bet. I suppose he could have seen the diamond draw and not wanted to give me a free card or as a good spot to semi-bluff as well.

Edit - oh yeah, I folded.

[party36master]

If I'm MP2, I play KQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif this way, if your PFR is reasonably high, to try to push you off a hand without an ace.

But I would still fold.

[Steve S]

Let this go. No reason to throw another 2 big bets at this. You are behind too many hands. You could find a better spot.

[CanKid]

I think most TAGs would c/r 88 or A8s here, whoever said it looks like a diamond draw; I agree with that the more I look at this.

Raise and check behind, fold to 3-bet.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm MP2, I play KQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif this way, if your PFR is reasonably high, to try to push you off a hand without an ace.

But I would still fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would a TAG really check-call this flop with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif after getting 3-bet preflop?

Rob

[CanKid]

[ QUOTE ]
Would a TAG really check-call this flop with KQ after getting 3-bet preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not a good one, but I see players with "TAG" stats making those calls and bets enough to not rule out the possibility.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would a TAG really check-call this flop with KQ after getting 3-bet preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not a good one, but I see players with "TAG" stats making those calls and bets enough to not rule out the possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but once we discount the posssibility that A) a TAG check-calls with KdQd and a TAG leads with KdQd, can't we say that we're enough of a dog to our opponent's range of hands that we should just fold?

Rob

[CanKid]

[ QUOTE ]
can't we say that we're enough of a dog to our opponent's range of hands that we should just fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rob,

If we knew his range of opening hands from that spot it sure would help. I am just not ready to give this guy credit for a higher pair with the line he took. I also don't like the meta game with folding out from this gaybet. Perhaps the fact I've raised this gaybet lately and gotten the pot right there is clouding my thinking. Do you think this is at least close? I am not folding here.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
can't we say that we're enough of a dog to our opponent's range of hands that we should just fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rob,

If we knew his range of opening hands from that spot it sure would help. I am just not ready to give this guy credit for a higher pair with the line he took. I also don't like the meta game with folding out from this gaybet. Perhaps the fact I've raised this gaybet lately and gotten the pot right there is clouding my thinking. Do you think this is at least close? I am not folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is ~5.5BB. You want to invest 2BB to win, and if he has a hand like K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, he isn't folding to your raise, and he will actually win the hand 32.6% of the time.

So basically you're taking a chance that he has a hand like TT and is bet-folding, but a hand like TT-JJ is significantly less likely than an Ace in this circumstance, and there's still the chance that he's calling with those hands, especially if he's odd enough to bet them on the turn. Even a hand like K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is relatively unlikely here.

Obviously knowing his hand ranges and what his bets mean would be helpful, but I really don't see anything wrong with folding here. You only need to win this about 26% of the time to show a profit in raising, but I don't think there's enough of a parlay for raising to turn a profit here. I'd do the math right now, but I don't have excel on my current computer -- basically what it comes down to is seeing there's ~6 ways he'll have a hand like TT, JJ, here (since I don't think he check-call bet-folds those often), and there are, at the very least, 64 ace combinations you have to worry about (more when we include A8s, which I would be openraising from MP2). Since we're including the possibility of KQ, KJ, etc., here, I think we also have to include the possibility of 66, 88, and AA (though AA is unlikely), and that really turns this into a mess.

Basically he's beating us 80 ways, and we're beating him in maybe ~30, and when he's beating us, we've got 2 outs -- but when we're beating him, he's got anywhere from 6-15.

There's a lot that we'll need to have happen for a raise to be good here. I raise donkbets all the time, but TAG donkbets are another story. If it were a true donkbet, I'd just call down.

Rob

[TStoneMBD]

fold. he has to have precisely 77 or KQ/KJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for you to be ahead here.

yer beat.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is TAG
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm not folding, I'm raising and checking behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty much with you PB.
I'm thinking maybe MP2 has pocket 8's (or 6's) and now has a set, but could be semi-bluffing with a flush draw. So I raise here, and fold to a re-raise; then check down on the river.

bill c