sneaky trips first hand of a mini step 4

[Che]

First hand of a Mini Step 4. Everyone has 1000 chips.

$165 buyin. 1-2 advance to Step 5 ($430 buyin), 3-5 return to step 4, 6-7 drop back to step 3 ($55 buyin), 8-10 get stuff but it sucks.

Folded to me in MP and I make it 50 with 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif cuz I just do that sometimes. Called by button, SB and BB – all unknowns.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=200)

SB bets 50, BB calls, I raise to 325, button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=1225)

SB checks, I check, button pushes (625).

1. Should I call if SB folds?
2. Should I call if SB calls?

Any comments on flop and turn play appreciated…

Che

[michw]

If SB mucks I think it's an easy fold. The turn filled in any possible draw the button may have been on. You're getting 3:1 on your money and you're about 3.5:1 to make a boat or quads. If the SB calls your most definitely beat but are now getting 4:1 on your draw. But...the Sb may have 9-9, 10-10, (seems unlikely), or A6 where you're in a world of hurt and are not getting 4:1. Also with 600 chips left you've still got some fight left. I think I muck regardless of SB's action.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to me in MP and I make it 50 with 8 6 cuz I just do that sometimes. Called by button, SB and BB – all unknowns.

Flop: 6 6 9 (Pot=200)

SB bets 50, BB calls, I raise to 325, button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: T (Pot=1225)

SB checks, I check, button pushes (625).

[/ QUOTE ]

SB called, I folded.

Button showed JJ (with /images/graemlins/heart.gif) and SB showed AA (with /images/graemlins/heart.gif). River was a blank. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

FWIW I would have called the button HU, but I thought the fact that SB appeared to have been playing a flush draw combined with the fact that someone could have a boat (TT, 99) or a bigger 6 led to my fold decision.

I guess it's a pretty boring hand (or people just stopped reading when they saw that I raised with 86s /images/graemlins/tongue.gif).

Later,
Che

[gumpzilla]

I agree with the previous poster; I'm more inclined to fold if SB folds and take my odds to fill up or hit quads if he calls. Because both flushes and a straight got there I'm not sure how afraid you have to be of a better three of a kind, and a better 6 would be silly. I think you're getting the right price to call at that point.

[rollingdirty]

[Che]

If all 10 of my boat outs are clean, the call is slightly +EV if SB calls. However, I could have seven outs (the T outs being gone) or worse - be drawing dead to the case 6.

Meanwhile, I do not think the button needs to be beating me to push, but the SB *should* be beating trip 6's to make this call don't you think? There's an obvious flush on board and a board pair so AA with heart should be at the bottom end of his calling range. The vast majority of the time he will have a better hand than this.

My odds to draw are insufficient HU with the button if he is beating me, but he will often *not* be beating me, so I'm comfortable calling him, but I'm not excited about calling the SB because he will almost always be beating me, sometimes crushing me.

Am I way out in left field on this one?

Later,
Che

[Che]

rollingdirty-

How much should I have bet?

I can't understand betting anything less than all-in.

Later,
Che

[Apathy]

The thing about 'sneaky' trips is that you have to pay off with them more then usual because noone is worried about you having them when they push into you. That being said this is a relly tough spot, I might have called the original push but theres little chance I would call after the push and the call.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Meanwhile, I do not think the button needs to be beating me to push, but the SB *should* be beating trip 6's to make this call don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely agree that SB calling suggests to me that I'm behind. But, I tend to think I'm probably behind after the push already.

Your point about all of your outs not necessarily being live is a good one. Initially I was thinking that 99 probably would have moved you in on the flop, but I was forgetting that they already had a boat, and the flush getting there would be a perfect reason to push at that point from 99's perspective with two other people in the pot, since at least one of those is likely to be on the draw.

[ QUOTE ]

Am I way out in left field on this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, not at all; I'm just thinking that after the flop action, I'm probably behind to even the pusher, so I'm not calling here unless I think I've got a good price to try and hit a boat.

[rollingdirty]

[gumpzilla]

He can't bet only 300 into this pot. The problem is that he only has 625 left at this point, and he would be betting 300 into a pot of 1200+. This is not likely to be enough to make anybody fold. Even if they push over the top of him at that point, he's going to be getting such good odds (at least 7:1) that he pretty much has to call and take his chances, because folding is going to leave him with such a short stack anyway. For that reason, Che says that the only bet he can make is all-in, essentially.

The other thing is that your analysis looks to be a little results-oriented. You appear to be relatively new here, so here is one of the mantras: the results don't matter. You should always try and analyze the play on the basis of what you knew going into the hand, not what you knew afterwards, because that's representative of how the game is played.

[schwza]

a) i'd much rather play against 1 bad guy than 2. a caller makes it much more likely that you're beat, and that a lot of your "outs" are not.

b) as it happened, i'd fold. i would have folded even if the SB had folded. after the flop action i would have bet a lot of money that the button had 78, a flush draw, 6x, or a flopped boat.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing about 'sneaky' trips is that you have to pay off with them more then usual

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I definitely pay off (and back into winning in this case) if this was a multitable or even if it was a regular SNG (probably), but the flat nature of the payout in the step 4 tilted me toward folding and playing on.

Even with this structure, I would have been all-in on any non-flush card, but SB's play screamed flush draw IMHO so I folded. Oh well...

Later,
Che

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
You appear to be relatively new here,

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't heard that in a while. 1200+ posts and a 2003 reg date usually clear that up for people pretty fast. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ QUOTE ]
The other thing is that your analysis looks to be a little results-oriented. You appear to be relatively new here, so here is one of the mantras: the results don't matter. You should always try and analyze the play on the basis of what you knew going into the hand, not what you knew afterwards, because that's representative of how the game is played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, I guess I do post "results-oriented" threads in the sense that I post hands where someone shows down a hand I totally didn't expect in order to find out whether I should have expected it or if they're just crazy.

If the SB had showed a flush or a boat, I certainly wouldn't have posted the hand since my read would have (appeared to have) been correct.

I appreciate the reminder. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Later,
Che

Edit: I have rarely posted in this forum (at least since you registered) so I can understand why you would see me as new. Fair enough.

[DownLow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You appear to be relatively new here,

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't heard that in a while. 1200+ posts and a 2003 reg date usually clear that up for people pretty fast. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif



[/ QUOTE ]

Looks to me like that comment was in reply to rollingdirty's comment, not your's.

[schwza]

hahahahahahahaha

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile, I do not think the button needs to be beating me to push, but the SB *should* be beating trip 6's to make this call don't you think? There's an obvious flush on board and a board pair so AA with heart should be at the bottom end of his calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you're SB (and misclicked about three times on prior streets). You call PF hoping to trap, bet out on that relatively harmless flop and get raised by what looks an awful lot like jacks. The button coldcalls, which could mean A6 or, more likely, a flush draw/TT/etc. If I'm SB, I don't think the button beats me right now.

Now you hit the turn, which, even if bad, gives you 13 outs counting the other aces/sixes. The raiser checks his (something that doesn't beat a flush) and the button pushes. Does the button push a flush or trips? Maybe, maybe not, but you have 11/13 outs if he does so you call. Having screwed up the hand thus far the call makes sense.

Having said that, from your perspective this looks bad enough so that I'd fold and then sigh on the river.

[Che]

gump-

I misread who you were replying to. My mistake. Sorry!

I recognized you so I thought that was a weird thing to say... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Again, I'm sorry.

Che

PS - Thanks to DownLow for pointing out my error and no thanks to schwza for being such a clown. /images/graemlins/grin.gif