Tough hand, street by street (w/reads) [Archive]

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 09:10 PM

Villian in this hand is solid and predictable. He is a 23/10/2.1/34 over 1287 hands. He isn't quite as agressive preflop as you should be to maximize win rate. He check raises 4% of the time (playerview calculation not pokertracker) which is pretty solid. Plays good postflop. Makes good laydowns and thin value bets. On to the hand which had a ton of interesting decisions. I'm going to post street by street and post my thoughts after each step. Not every step is real tough but I want people who are new to shorthand or unsure of themselves to take a detailed look at a hand. Thanks in advance for your posts.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero ?????

Krishan

NLSoldier

04-27-2005, 09:18 PM

...3 bets without thinking.

PokerDonkey

04-27-2005, 09:19 PM

My play is to RR the button PF. That way if he folds (not likely) you win the pot outright. if he were to just call, you can probably rule out pairs around 8's or better. If he were to cap, you can then have more ideas to the types of hands that he could be holding. The key for me is the information of a call or raise. Not forgetting about the big blind which I can more easily read if he/she were to cold call two sb's.

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...3 bets without thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect. Even a guy who raises tight (say 6%) will raise a ton of hands that you have really good equity against. You also would rather have the dead blind money than a 3rd player. Against nearly all opponents it's pretty much a no brainer. Keep in mind for the rest of the hand, this guy was a little passive preflop.

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero ???

I had never seen him cap in 140 hands.

Krishan

NLSoldier

04-27-2005, 09:26 PM

I really don't think you need the question marks here...

also, in 140 hands it wouldnt at all unlikely for him not to have had a premium hand and the opportunity to cap with it.

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 09:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think you need the question marks here...

also, in 140 hands it wouldnt at all unlikely for him not to have had a premium hand and the opportunity to cap with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your saying it's too easy. Assume for a moment that there were no image considerations and you were going to get up and leave after this hand. Put him on a range of hands for capping. How does this range compare with KQo. IF you give him AA-99, AJs, AQo, KQs (which I think is very generous) you have 30% equity out of position against a solid postflop player. I still call but I want people to think about how his cap narrows his hand range to the point where before the 3-bet you were a favorite and after you are probably at least a bit of a dog.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 69.3468 % [ 00.67 00.02 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 2: 30.6532 % [ 00.29 00.02 ] { KQo }

On with the hand.

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero ??

I'm looking for a line, not a simple bet or check. Check with the intention of what, at what point will you fold (if any).

Krishan

mlb3zr

04-27-2005, 09:38 PM

I don't play much shorthand, so take this with a grain of salt.

140 hands is too few to start playing scared. Hell, people who've played with me over the past couple days will tell you that I never even 3bet. So I think you keep him on the normal range of capping hands, rather than narrowing him down to just AA or KK or something.

NLSoldier

04-27-2005, 09:45 PM

I'm check calling the flop and turn for sure. I don't want to let him get away from 99-JJ and don't want to pay more to see a showdown vs AA, KK, AQ. I'm not very worried about potentially giving free cards because if I'm ahead he has at most 3 outs against me(unless he has spades which is pretty unlikely).

Once I get to the river, if its a scarecard that I think he will be afraid to raise even with an overpair, like say a spade or a board pairing card, then I'd bet. Otherwise I'd probably check call again.

mctommy015

04-27-2005, 09:46 PM

I think i might check raise, and call down if he three bets. Or maybe cap the flop, bet the turn and fold if raised. I'm not sure... one of those

mctommy015

04-27-2005, 09:48 PM

Most players won't fold 99-JJ anyways, they'll call down.

mlb3zr

04-27-2005, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero ??

I'm looking for a line, not a simple bet or check. Check with the intention of what, at what point will you fold (if any).

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

seems like a WA/WB to me, in which case I'd go for the c/c, c/c, bet/fold line (re-evaluating with each street, of course).

NLSoldier

04-27-2005, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think i might check raise, and call down if he three bets. Or maybe cap the flop, bet the turn and fold if raised. I'm not sure... one of those

[/ QUOTE ]

If you CR the flop and he 3 bets, what are you putting him on that makes you want to call down?

What are you putting him on that makes you want to cap? If you cap he might just call down with AQ or KK and you will lose lots of money.

bunky9590

04-27-2005, 10:44 PM

Three bizzle. All day long and twice on Sunday.

bunky9590

04-27-2005, 10:47 PM

Checkraise the flop, if he three bets its call down city. I can't lay down there unless he showed me a better hand.

billyjex

04-27-2005, 10:52 PM

I agree w/ the C/C, C/C, B/F line here.

mperich

04-27-2005, 10:53 PM

This is what THE LINE was invented for. And pf is an easy 3 bet. And the word fold should not be in this thread unless preceded by do not.

-Mike

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise the flop, if he three bets its call down city. I can't lay down there unless he showed me a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the range of hands you put him on after the flop cap? I thought this was a way ahead or way behind sort of hand. Check-call, check-call, bet was running through my mind pretty strongly at this point.

Krishan

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is what THE LINE was invented for.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If you don't see this as way ahead, way behind, post your arguments. On with the hand.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Is it time to abandon the c/c, c/c, b plan? And if so how? And given the opponent's likely range of hands you should consider how he will react.

Krishan

billyjex

04-27-2005, 11:00 PM

I C/R here. Now you're way ahead of KK/AA, but I doubt he folds those to a C/R and will call us down for 2 BB. JJ/TT will now fold (maybe) and we'd lose a BB if we'd done C/C/B line. The only hand we're worried about is AQ, and I'm not that worried.

mperich

04-27-2005, 11:01 PM

Well, you said your opponent is a think TAG and I assume he knows you are solid so...how do we get the most out of him. If he folds to c/rs too much, lead the turn and the river. This will net you 2BB. Another possible line, since you claimed he likes to make thing value bets is check call turn and checkraise river. I think he is much less likely to fold for one on the river than on the turn. If I were him I would value bet my overpair 100% of the time on the river, since I would probably put you on 99-44ish type of hands of maybe AK.

-Mike

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I C/R here. Now you're way ahead of KK/AA, but I doubt he folds those to a C/R and will call us down for 2 BB. JJ/TT will now fold (maybe) and we'd lose a BB if we'd done C/C/B line. The only hand we're worried about is AQ, and I'm not that worried.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens when he has AK?

Krishan

NLSoldier

04-27-2005, 11:05 PM

I would either bet out, hoping to 3bet, or check/call the turn and checkraise the river.

billyjex

04-27-2005, 11:05 PM

Didn't think about that -- this is a toughie. I'm torn between a turn C/R, call/bet line or a river C/R as mperich suggested since he likes to thin value bet.

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 11:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would either bet out, hoping to 3bet, or check/call the turn and checkraise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we assume his range of hands is AA-TT, AK how is the check/call, checkraise plan a good one. Against AA-KK it wins 3-bets. Against JJ-TT it wins 2 bets. Against AK it wins 1 bet if he bets the turn. He won't value bet AK against me. If he checks the turn with AK, he may or may not call a bet on the river.

AA-6 ways-3 BB
KK-6 ways-3 BB
JJ-6 ways-3 BB
TT-6 ways-3 BB
AK-16 ways-1 BB
Weighted average 2.2 BB

Hmmm. Better than I thought.

Leading the turn is hard to judge because it depends so much on his response. Checkraising the turn is worth roughly.

AA-6 ways-3 BB
KK-6 ways-3 BB
JJ-6 ways-1 BB
TT-6 ways-1 BB
AK-16 ways-1 BB

Weighted average 1.6 BB

Am I missing anything?

Krishan

mperich

04-27-2005, 11:20 PM

You said he can laydown. Does this include an overpair to you on that board ever? If so then the merits of waiting for a river c/r increase a lot.

-Mike

Seether

04-27-2005, 11:25 PM

I think you guys are putting this villain on much too strong of hands. Just look at this situation, hes on the button, raises, looks like a steal raise, the SB 3bets which looks like a possible re-steal unless the hero is seen as very tight. With the assumption that the villain is a thinking TAG he could possibly feel that the 3 bet is a resteal attempt and he may cap to represent a premium holding. I have not given too much thought on the line to use in this hand but I think that you guys are giving villain way too much credit for a premium holding.

krishanleong

04-27-2005, 11:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You said he can laydown. Does this include an overpair to you on that board ever? If so then the merits of waiting for a river c/r increase a lot.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd lay down aces or kings on a paired board. Too much of a chance I might be taking a shot. I think the main advantage is having villian value bet JJ or TT and make a crying call. The disadvantage is having him check behind with AK, JJ or TT. I never considered this line and I think I like it.

Krishan

krishanleong

04-28-2005, 06:55 AM

I'm not sure what the best action is on the turn. I think it's either leading or check calling and check raising the river. I screwed it up though and cr the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Since he called my checkraise I'm 95% sure he has an overpair. I'm pretty sure I can pull off a checkraise against an overpair. What's the best move?

Krishan

maxpowers21

04-28-2005, 07:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are putting this villain on much too strong of hands. Just look at this situation, hes on the button, raises, looks like a steal raise, the SB 3bets which looks like a possible re-steal unless the hero is seen as very tight. With the assumption that the villain is a thinking TAG he could possibly feel that the 3 bet is a resteal attempt and he may cap to represent a premium holding. I have not given too much thought on the line to use in this hand but I think that you guys are giving villain way too much credit for a premium holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. This is 6max for god sake. How can you put the button on KK AA exclusively. You flopped top pair. Think you are best. Be aggresive, or be passive to trap, or whatever just don't think about folding.

maxpowers21

04-28-2005, 07:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the best action is on the turn. I think it's either leading or check calling and check raising the river. I screwed it up though and cr the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Since he called my checkraise I'm 95% sure he has an overpair. I'm pretty sure I can pull off a checkraise against an overpair. What's the best move?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

99, TT, JJ, AK, A8, plus any other loose calls...perhaps, just some possiblities

maxpowers21

04-28-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the best action is on the turn. I think it's either leading or check calling and check raising the river. I screwed it up though and cr the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Since he called my checkraise I'm 95% sure he has an overpair. I'm pretty sure I can pull off a checkraise against an overpair. What's the best move?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet the river, give him a chance to raise if he has an overpair. Or give him a chance to call if he doesn't. I don't like checking here, too many opponets will get passive and check behind because of your turn aggresion.

Noodles

04-28-2005, 07:11 AM

i would check/call, wait to see what turn brings and depending on what it is try a cr,if he reraises you are most likely beaten,but i suppose you still have to call it down then

mistrpug

04-28-2005, 08:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Since he called my checkraise I'm 95% sure he has an overpair. I'm pretty sure I can pull off a checkraise against an overpair. What's the best move?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he does have an overpair, he would probably raise the river, so I bet/3-bet.

Wynton

04-28-2005, 09:20 AM

I hope it's not too late to comment about the early streets because that's where I have some observations.

Preflop, I agree with 3-betting. But I don't agree that when the villain caps, it necessarily narrows his holdings at all. If he was on a steal to start off with, wouldn't many players in his position cap in an attempt to re-steal? Or does this happen so rarely (even with 2+2ers) that I should ignore that possibility in general?

Now on the flop, I also agree this seems like a way ahead or way behind situation. But I don't know why it follows that c/c is the best line (which means I probably don't understand that line as a general matter). If you're way behind, c/c tells you nothing. Moreover, if you're way ahead, I don't understand why check/call or check/raise necessarily gives you more profit than betting out.

My thinking has been that, if I'm way ahead (not just here but in general on the flop), leading the betting where there was heavy action preflop will likely lead to a raise and allow me to 3-bet. Assuming that you are way ahead (which seems more likely than not), is everyone assuming that a check/call or check/raise gets more value than betting out?

Incidentally, one reason I'm asking is that my most glaring stat is that I check/raise a tiny percentage of the time, which I assume is due to some fundamental misunderstanding.

mlb3zr

04-28-2005, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]

River: (9.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Since he called my checkraise I'm 95% sure he has an overpair. I'm pretty sure I can pull off a checkraise against an overpair. What's the best move?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

despite the fact that you pretty much announced your Q with the turn cr, he probably still won't believe you have it. I think you can cr a lot of hands here (probably any A, lots of pocket pairs). then you hope he has a big pair and 3bets with his full house. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

mlb3zr

04-28-2005, 10:16 AM

I'm still working on getting the WA/WB line down myself, so fill in the blanks, everyone. I think the general idea is that you are hitting the balance between losing the least when you're behind and winning the most when you're ahead. If you're behind, you lose more when you lead out and get raised on the flop or turn, or when you check raise. But if you're ahead, it allows your opponent to stay in the hand much longer than he should. So he gives you bets (particularly big bets on later streets) when he might otherwise have folded to aggression from you early.

NLSoldier

04-28-2005, 01:52 PM

I can't decide between bet/3betting the river and CR/Capping. I think if you bet you are almost guranteed 3 bets, and if you check you are really only guranteed 2, so I say bet it.

mperich

04-28-2005, 01:59 PM

I don't think you are gauranteed 3 bets by betting out. I think you are gauranteed one bet with maybe a 50/50 chance he will raise. I mean Im sure he knows Krishan is good, so what would a good player cap pf and c/r the turn with? Pretty much only a queen or a bluff. If K. is on a bluff, then villain will know that raising the river has no value, but if K. has a queen he will surely get 3bet.

If I were villain I would not raise a river lead, but I would for sure bet against a check and call a checkraise. This is especially likely for villain because he likes to value bet. Sorry for the ramble its early. Go for a river c/r.

-Mike

Grisgra

04-28-2005, 02:07 PM

Hero 3-bets, because if he's as you describe:

1) If an ace falls and he raises me, I'll be pretty sure he has an ace. If not, I'll be able to bluff him away.
2) If an ace does not fall on the flop or turn, he'll probably fold and not call me down with A-high, allowing me to win unimproved.

Nikla

04-28-2005, 02:41 PM

I'd bet with the intention of 3 betting turn. Same with river.

Bluffoon

04-28-2005, 03:11 PM

I check call the flop. If i don't improve I am calling this straight down.

On the turn I am going to assess my image. If my image is tight, against a tag I am going for the check raise. If my image is loose, against a tag I am leading and looking for a three bet.

On the river I am going to lead at it regardless and again hope to get in three.

Interesting hand.

Jeff W

04-28-2005, 04:46 PM

Re: Pre-Flop/Flop

Automatic. My plan on flop is C/C, C/C, B if your hand range estimate is correct.

Re: Turn/River

On both the turn and the river I prefer leading out and 3-betting a raise. I started to do the math to decide which was correct, but it was a little too involved, so I'll leave it to someone else and trust my intuition.